Let's Discuss the 2007 Schedule

[hagams]

Detroit, GB, Arz, and NY is a good stretch, but if we win all those games, we haven't proved anything. I think it will be good to beat those team to help with morale on the team going into the tuff stretch. All I can say is GIVE EM' HELL SKINS.

[redskinsfanatic]

to be honest unless brady gets hurt,and with the colts,and the chargers crazy off season,the patriots look like a runaway to me.maybe the ravens can
contain them better,but brady will find a way to win!

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

The Ravens are one team that I actually expect to regress. Their defense is good, but their offense is going to be awful. McNair really showed his age, Ogden is thinking about retirement, Mason is getting up there, and they have no RB. Great defenses can carry teams with average offenses, but their offense is shaping up to be pretty piss poor.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

The Ravens are one team that I actually expect to regress. Their defense is good, but their offense is going to be awful. McNair really showed his age, Ogden is thinking about retirement, Mason is getting up there, and they have no RB. Great defenses can carry teams with average offenses, but their offense is shaping up to be pretty piss poor.

Well, they traded for McGahee but I don't think he will have too much of an effect.

I'm in total agreement with the Ravens regessing and I also expect to see some defensive regression due to age. Maybe not out of the top ten, but maybe like the 05 Skins as compared to the 04 Skins. That sort of effect.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Well, they traded for McGahee but I don't think he will have too much of an effect.

I'm in total agreement with the Ravens regessing and I also expect to see some defensive regression due to age. Maybe not out of the top ten, but maybe like the 05 Skins as compared to the 04 Skins. That sort of effect.

Thanks, total brainfart on my part.

[bigSkinsfan61]

our schedule is what it is i like it ...joe gibbs maybe not but he always says that we're sittin pretty ...we shall see 12-4 maybe .. i feel good

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

The Ravens are one team that I actually expect to regress. Their defense is good, but their offense is going to be awful. McNair really showed his age, Ogden is thinking about retirement, Mason is getting up there, and they have no RB. Great defenses can carry teams with average offenses, but their offense is shaping up to be pretty piss poor.

Ravens offense was more painful to watch than ours. If you think Brunell was Mr. checkdown try watching McNair. All McNair does is throw 5 yard passes to Heap on 3-10.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Ravens offense was more painful to watch than ours. If you think Brunell was Mr. checkdown try watching McNair. All McNair does is throw 5 yard passes to Heap on 3-10.

Brunell 2006: 62.3% comp, 6.9 yards/attempt

McNair 2006: 63.0% comp, 6.5 yards/attempt.

Very similar. McNair completed a bit higher % of his passes, but Brunell was a bit more effective. Both guys were pretty successful last year.

The thing with McNair is while he still can be a starter in this league for someone, like Brunell hes much better suited for a backup role. Both will still play effectively if called on however.

I thought from my observations that McNair did open it up as the season went on. He wouldn't have passed for 6.5 yards every attempt if he didnt throw downfield effectively in the same way Brunell wouldn't have gotten 6.9 yards/attempt if he never went downfield.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I thought from my observations that McNair did open it up as the season went on. He wouldn't have passed for 6.5 yards every attempt if he didnt throw downfield effectively in the same way Brunell wouldn't have gotten 6.9 yards/attempt if he never went downfield.

I honestly don't think either QB was particularly effectice (or horrible). The reason why their ypa average was high was because, as you know, they threw a lot of high percentage passes and not because they were chucking it up downfield. Moreover, Brunell's ypa average is inflated because the team was relatively effective at screen plays and the ability of guys like Moss and Cooley to get yards after the catch.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

I honestly don't think either QB was particularly effectice (or horrible). The reason why their ypa average was high was because, as you know, they threw a lot of high percentage passes and not because they were chucking it up downfield. Moreover, Brunell's ypa average is inflated because the team was relatively effective at screen plays and the ability of guys like Moss and Cooley to get yards after the catch.

I thought he got a lot more help from his receivers last year (2005) than this year (2006). Moss made that same play so many times in 2005 off the screen, I can't help but think that Brunell's YPA from 2005 was pretty inflated.

This year, I can remember only one big passing play from the first nine games that Brunell didn't have much of a role in and that was the 75 yard shovel to CP against Houston. But I'd be willing to say that most QBs with some talent on offense got a play like that at least once during the course of the season.

I think theres a double standard with QB age in this league. If Brunell or McNair throws for 7 YPA, its because they had great help from receivers. If McNabb does it, despite having the LEAGUES BEST PLAYER AFTER THE CATCH (Westbrook), it's because he's just that good. I think it's a league wide phemenon to create self serving evidence to say that old guys can't play, when in fact that isn't true.

But I think the near identical play of Brunell and McNair, at the very least, should demonstate to everyone just how much of a role defense plays. The difference between the leagues best D and leagues worst D, teams who had nearly identical offenses, was the difference of 8 wins. 8 wins! It's a 16 game season.

If we had the 2004 defense playing with the 2006 offense, we could have expected a 12-4 season with the exact same play from QB. That's the point. Defense really, really is everything in this league.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Brunell 2006: 62.3% comp, 6.9 yards/attempt

McNair 2006: 63.0% comp, 6.5 yards/attempt.

Very similar. McNair completed a bit higher % of his passes, but Brunell was a bit more effective. Both guys were pretty successful last year.

The thing with McNair is while he still can be a starter in this league for someone, like Brunell hes much better suited for a backup role. Both will still play effectively if called on however.

I thought from my observations that McNair did open it up as the season went on. He wouldn't have passed for 6.5 yards every attempt if he didnt throw downfield effectively in the same way Brunell wouldn't have gotten 6.9 yards/attempt if he never went downfield.

Gtripp you sure love to bring out the stats. I would rather have a guy who can give an offense big play potential rather than 6 yard dink and dunk passes. You don't score points in the NFL when you have to run 12-15 plays every single drive becuase your offense can't get big plays out of the passing game. What McNair and Brunell do don't impress me at all becasue they are nothing but care takers. At some point in a game you need your qb to make plays, have the ability to take the game over from the pocket. McNair just can't do it anymore and we all know Brunell sure can't. It showed up in the playoffs for Balt. and it showed up for us every single year Brunell has been here. McNair just looks old now. You can throw Trent Green in there too. Although he's a gunslinger Farve still has the arm to play at a high level.

What impresses me are guys that push the ball down the field and still complete a high number but don't turn it over too much. One guy who really impresses me is Drew Brees. How SD let the guy walk out of town is beyond me. Dude has a below average NFL arm but always pushes it downfield and completes a high %.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Gtripp you sure love to bring out the stats. I would rather have a guy who can give an offense big play potential rather than 6 yard dink and dunk passes. You don't score points in the NFL when you have to run 12-15 plays every single drive becuase your offense can't get big plays out of the passing game. What McNair and Brunell do don't impress me at all becasue they are nothing but care takers. At some point in a game you need your qb to make plays, have the ability to take the game over from the pocket. McNair just can't do it anymore and we all know Brunell sure can't. It showed up in the playoffs for Balt. and it showed up for us every single year Brunell has been here. McNair just looks old now. You can throw Trent Green in there too. Although he's a gunslinger Farve still has the arm to play at a high level.

What impresses me are guys that push the ball down the field and still complete a high number but don't turn it over too much. One guy who really impresses me is Drew Brees. How SD let the guy walk out of town is beyond me. Dude has a below average NFL arm but always pushes it downfield and completes a high %.

I think Brunell and McNair have more than adequate big play potential. Just because you have the potential for big plays doesn't mean they are going to happen.

I see what you are saying with the long sustained 12-15 drives point. It takes a lot more execution to execute 15 successful plays than one big one. But this is the philosophy of big plays to me. As far as I'm concered, big plays are a random occurence.

The whole philosophy behind running the sustained offense, is that every once in a while, things are going to line up just perfectly so that after your receiver makes the catch or after the RB breaks through the initial wave of defenders, there is a golden plated path to the end zone. Think Chris Cooley vs. Carolina this year or Steve Smith in the 2nd OT vs. the Rams in the 2003 playoffs.

If you try to force the ball deep in an illadvised situation, you greatly increase your chances for an interception. It's a low pct. attempt. More than likely, the pass will fall incomplete and you really hurt an otherwise successful drive.

Trying to "force" big plays is a bad idea. The QB should be taking his shots once in awhile, but then again, Brunell and McNair both did this--even in 2006. The problem with Campbell early on is that he was taking his shot every other play, and ended up completing about 50% of his passes. Drives weren't sustained, and the TOP swung heavily in favor of our opponents.

Campbell seemed to learn something the last two games of the season. Instead of forcing the ball into impossible coverages downfield, he took the intermediate routes. Campbell played really well those last two games, even though the defense gave him little help.

[artmonkforhallofamein07]

I really don't see this schedule as tough as last years. I like our chances and I love ending the year at home vs. Dallas.

Why can't the season start today!~!

[skinsfan69]

Big plays ARE NOT a rare occurance in many NFL offenses. Indy, STL, NO, Cinn, and Phil to name a few get big plays all the time.

Throwing 6ints in 7 starts IS NOT forcing the ball. Not even close on that one. Considering JC got NO WORK w/ the 1st team in 1 1/2 years and had to learn ANOTHER OFFENSE, I think he did damn good. So what if he took more chances. We needed to take more chances because a lack of a deep passing game. Cooley made that play against Car. because JC threw it over the middle on a rope and hit him in stride. That deep in cut is a staple of the STL and KC offenses. You see STL run that route better than anyone. When MB was playing we led the NFL in sideline passes. Troy A. pointed this out during a beating we took against Phil when I believe we had 110 yards passing. We did not bring in SM w/ 4.2 speed, ARE and Lloyd to throw screens, curls and 10 yard outs all game long.. I bet you will see a more open offense this year w/ ALOT more deep passes. Not sure if you remember but Gibbs 1 threw it downfield ALL THE TIME!!!

Gtripp...FYI all QB's turn the ball over including, Manning and Brady. It's just part of the game. You can't win in the NFL playing scared offense unless you have a truely great defense. Not the case here. Plus the rules BEG YOU to throw it downfield becasue of the PI factor.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Big plays ARE NOT a rare occurance in many NFL offenses. Indy, STL, NO, Cinn, and Phil to name a few get big plays all the time.

Throwing 6ints in 7 starts IS NOT forcing the ball. Not even close on that one. Considering JC got NO WORK w/ the 1st team in 1 1/2 years and had to learn ANOTHER OFFENSE, I think he did damn good. So what if he took more chances. We needed to take more chances because a lack of a deep passing game. Cooley made that play against Car. because JC threw it over the middle on a rope and hit him in stride. That deep in cut is a staple of the STL and KC offenses. You see STL run that route better than anyone. When MB was playing we led the NFL in sideline passes. Troy A. pointed this out during a beating we took against Phil when I believe we had 110 yards passing. We did not bring in SM w/ 4.2 speed, ARE and Lloyd to throw screens, curls and 10 yard outs all game long.. I bet you will see a more open offense this year w/ ALOT more deep passes. Not sure if you remember but Gibbs 1 threw it downfield ALL THE TIME!!!

Gtripp...FYI all QB's turn the ball over including, Manning and Brady. It's just part of the game. You can't win in the NFL playing scared offense unless you have a truely great defense. Not the case here. Plus the rules BEG YOU to throw it downfield becasue of the PI factor.

If getting big plays was as easy as throwing it downfield, every team would do it every play.

A lot of the examples you provide seem to support my argument. One thing that I'm not saying is that JC's relatively low INT total is reflected in his propensity to force the ball down the field.

You have to justify his 51% completion through his first 5 starts somehow. This is a 2nd year QB who projects to be very good in the NFL. He should NOT be putting up Vick like stats in his 2nd year in the league. When I compare this with my observations, it seems like Campbell was taking the deep ball when it wasn't there. Sometimes, you get a mismatch deep, with Moss 1 v 1 on a safety and you take it. It just seemed like Campbell wasn't pickin his spots well. Trying to hit Randle El out of the slot on a very deep post pattern between two safeties is not a smart play. This resulted in a lot of incompletions, and a lot of unsuccessful drives.

I'm not saying you should ever pass up an open receiver streaking down the sideline because you might miss it. I'm saying that if you don't have a mismatch, don't force the ball down the field, because incomplete may very well be the best reasonable outcome. Considering that even in an efficient offense, 40% of dropbacks will result in incomplete passes, it seems like throwing a low pct. pass when there are more open options underneath is a bad idea, and will kill a drive more often than not.

The bottom line is you want to score touchdowns. Incompletions do not help you score touchdowns. Completions do. You have to take what the defense gives you. Campbell will learn this sooner as opposed to later.