Let's Discuss the 2007 Schedule

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Gtripp you sure love to bring out the stats. I would rather have a guy who can give an offense big play potential rather than 6 yard dink and dunk passes. You don't score points in the NFL when you have to run 12-15 plays every single drive becuase your offense can't get big plays out of the passing game. What McNair and Brunell do don't impress me at all becasue they are nothing but care takers. At some point in a game you need your qb to make plays, have the ability to take the game over from the pocket. McNair just can't do it anymore and we all know Brunell sure can't. It showed up in the playoffs for Balt. and it showed up for us every single year Brunell has been here. McNair just looks old now. You can throw Trent Green in there too. Although he's a gunslinger Farve still has the arm to play at a high level.

What impresses me are guys that push the ball down the field and still complete a high number but don't turn it over too much. One guy who really impresses me is Drew Brees. How SD let the guy walk out of town is beyond me. Dude has a below average NFL arm but always pushes it downfield and completes a high %.

I think Brunell and McNair have more than adequate big play potential. Just because you have the potential for big plays doesn't mean they are going to happen.

I see what you are saying with the long sustained 12-15 drives point. It takes a lot more execution to execute 15 successful plays than one big one. But this is the philosophy of big plays to me. As far as I'm concered, big plays are a random occurence.

The whole philosophy behind running the sustained offense, is that every once in a while, things are going to line up just perfectly so that after your receiver makes the catch or after the RB breaks through the initial wave of defenders, there is a golden plated path to the end zone. Think Chris Cooley vs. Carolina this year or Steve Smith in the 2nd OT vs. the Rams in the 2003 playoffs.

If you try to force the ball deep in an illadvised situation, you greatly increase your chances for an interception. It's a low pct. attempt. More than likely, the pass will fall incomplete and you really hurt an otherwise successful drive.

Trying to "force" big plays is a bad idea. The QB should be taking his shots once in awhile, but then again, Brunell and McNair both did this--even in 2006. The problem with Campbell early on is that he was taking his shot every other play, and ended up completing about 50% of his passes. Drives weren't sustained, and the TOP swung heavily in favor of our opponents.

Campbell seemed to learn something the last two games of the season. Instead of forcing the ball into impossible coverages downfield, he took the intermediate routes. Campbell played really well those last two games, even though the defense gave him little help.

[skinsfan69]

Big plays ARE NOT a rare occurance in many NFL offenses. Indy, STL, NO, Cinn, and Phil to name a few get big plays all the time.

Throwing 6ints in 7 starts IS NOT forcing the ball. Not even close on that one. Considering JC got NO WORK w/ the 1st team in 1 1/2 years and had to learn ANOTHER OFFENSE, I think he did damn good. So what if he took more chances. We needed to take more chances because a lack of a deep passing game. Cooley made that play against Car. because JC threw it over the middle on a rope and hit him in stride. That deep in cut is a staple of the STL and KC offenses. You see STL run that route better than anyone. When MB was playing we led the NFL in sideline passes. Troy A. pointed this out during a beating we took against Phil when I believe we had 110 yards passing. We did not bring in SM w/ 4.2 speed, ARE and Lloyd to throw screens, curls and 10 yard outs all game long.. I bet you will see a more open offense this year w/ ALOT more deep passes. Not sure if you remember but Gibbs 1 threw it downfield ALL THE TIME!!!

Gtripp...FYI all QB's turn the ball over including, Manning and Brady. It's just part of the game. You can't win in the NFL playing scared offense unless you have a truely great defense. Not the case here. Plus the rules BEG YOU to throw it downfield becasue of the PI factor.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Big plays ARE NOT a rare occurance in many NFL offenses. Indy, STL, NO, Cinn, and Phil to name a few get big plays all the time.

Throwing 6ints in 7 starts IS NOT forcing the ball. Not even close on that one. Considering JC got NO WORK w/ the 1st team in 1 1/2 years and had to learn ANOTHER OFFENSE, I think he did damn good. So what if he took more chances. We needed to take more chances because a lack of a deep passing game. Cooley made that play against Car. because JC threw it over the middle on a rope and hit him in stride. That deep in cut is a staple of the STL and KC offenses. You see STL run that route better than anyone. When MB was playing we led the NFL in sideline passes. Troy A. pointed this out during a beating we took against Phil when I believe we had 110 yards passing. We did not bring in SM w/ 4.2 speed, ARE and Lloyd to throw screens, curls and 10 yard outs all game long.. I bet you will see a more open offense this year w/ ALOT more deep passes. Not sure if you remember but Gibbs 1 threw it downfield ALL THE TIME!!!

Gtripp...FYI all QB's turn the ball over including, Manning and Brady. It's just part of the game. You can't win in the NFL playing scared offense unless you have a truely great defense. Not the case here. Plus the rules BEG YOU to throw it downfield becasue of the PI factor.

If getting big plays was as easy as throwing it downfield, every team would do it every play.

A lot of the examples you provide seem to support my argument. One thing that I'm not saying is that JC's relatively low INT total is reflected in his propensity to force the ball down the field.

You have to justify his 51% completion through his first 5 starts somehow. This is a 2nd year QB who projects to be very good in the NFL. He should NOT be putting up Vick like stats in his 2nd year in the league. When I compare this with my observations, it seems like Campbell was taking the deep ball when it wasn't there. Sometimes, you get a mismatch deep, with Moss 1 v 1 on a safety and you take it. It just seemed like Campbell wasn't pickin his spots well. Trying to hit Randle El out of the slot on a very deep post pattern between two safeties is not a smart play. This resulted in a lot of incompletions, and a lot of unsuccessful drives.

I'm not saying you should ever pass up an open receiver streaking down the sideline because you might miss it. I'm saying that if you don't have a mismatch, don't force the ball down the field, because incomplete may very well be the best reasonable outcome. Considering that even in an efficient offense, 40% of dropbacks will result in incomplete passes, it seems like throwing a low pct. pass when there are more open options underneath is a bad idea, and will kill a drive more often than not.

The bottom line is you want to score touchdowns. Incompletions do not help you score touchdowns. Completions do. You have to take what the defense gives you. Campbell will learn this sooner as opposed to later.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

If getting big plays was as easy as throwing it downfield, every team would do it every play.

A lot of the examples you provide seem to support my argument. One thing that I'm not saying is that JC's relatively low INT total is reflected in his propensity to force the ball down the field.

You have to justify his 51% completion through his first 5 starts somehow. This is a 2nd year QB who projects to be very good in the NFL. He should NOT be putting up Vick like stats in his 2nd year in the league. When I compare this with my observations, it seems like Campbell was taking the deep ball when it wasn't there. Sometimes, you get a mismatch deep, with Moss 1 v 1 on a safety and you take it. It just seemed like Campbell wasn't pickin his spots well. Trying to hit Randle El out of the slot on a very deep post pattern between two safeties is not a smart play. This resulted in a lot of incompletions, and a lot of unsuccessful drives.

I'm not saying you should ever pass up an open receiver streaking down the sideline because you might miss it. I'm saying that if you don't have a mismatch, don't force the ball down the field, because incomplete may very well be the best reasonable outcome. Considering that even in an efficient offense, 40% of dropbacks will result in incomplete passes, it seems like throwing a low pct. pass when there are more open options underneath is a bad idea, and will kill a drive more often than not.

The bottom line is you want to score touchdowns. Incompletions do not help you score touchdowns. Completions do. You have to take what the defense gives you. Campbell will learn this sooner as opposed to later.

Nobody said getting big plays was easy casue it's not. But like I said, why would our offense, with new wr's that can all run, lead the league in sideline passes the 1st 9 weeks? Sorry but that's on the Qb, and for that matter the coaching staff too. Even Madden and Aikmen pointed out our problems at QB. Sorry but I think Troy Aikman and John Madden know more about NFL quarterbacking than you or I.

I would justify the 51% to alot of things.

1. Playing in 6 different offenses in 6 years.
2. A lack of work with the 1st team wr's for the first 1 1/2 years.
3. No real game experience since 2004.
4. Needs to work on his mechanics
5. He's a young QB.

[EXoffender]

Not a tough schedule outside of the schedule. We've had sucess against NE and CHI. They shouldn't scare us. Whether shouldn't be a factor 8/07 vs NE and Briggs will have his revenge against his former team at home...

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by EXoffender

Not a tough schedule outside of the schedule. We've had sucess against NE and CHI. They shouldn't scare us. Whether shouldn't be a factor 8/07 vs NE and Briggs will have his revenge against his former team at home...

Um...you lost me

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Nobody said getting big plays was easy casue it's not. But like I said, why would our offense, with new wr's that can all run, lead the league in sideline passes the 1st 9 weeks? Sorry but that's on the Qb, and for that matter the coaching staff too. Even Madden and Aikmen pointed out our problems at QB. Sorry but I think Troy Aikman and John Madden know more about NFL quarterbacking than you or I.

I would justify the 51% to alot of things.

1. Playing in 6 different offenses in 6 years.
2. A lack of work with the 1st team wr's for the first 1 1/2 years.
3. No real game experience since 2004.
4. Needs to work on his mechanics
5. He's a young QB.

Do you know that we led the league in sideline passes, or are you just speculating that we did? Either way, is that a good or bad thing? What is it's significance?

Look, Madden and Aikman are probably the elite of their class (of color analysists), but both probably don't get to watch the Redskins play more than once or twice a year. We, as fans of the team, should be far more knowledgable about our own players because we follow the team religiously. I wouldn't put too much stock into the opinion of a member of the television media, even if that person happens to be one of the better analysts. It's pretty outlandish for anyone to make a statement concerning the effectiveness of a single player who they do not get to see often without at least consulting statistics to see if their claim can ever remotely be justified. Having a big name doesn't excuse idiocy.

As far as those 5 reasons you gave, I would agree that they all contribute to Campbell's in experience and I believe that Campbell's inexperience is the problem. We all know that Campbell is not even close to his prime yet, and that we can expect a steady improvement from him until then.

I'm just saying that it doesn't take an experienced player to complete more than 51% of his passes. He was making A LOT of mistakes concerning where to go with the football, and put simply wasn't completing passes during his first 5 starts. I can assure you he would have completed more passes and moved the ball/sustained drives better had he not tried to take the most difficult route option every other play, and setting himself up for failure.

In the last two games, he seemed to stop forcing the ball downfield, took what the defense gave him, and improved his completion % considerably. It certainly isn't his fault that we didn't win those games.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Do you know that we led the league in sideline passes, or are you just speculating that we did? Either way, is that a good or bad thing? What is it's significance?

Look, Madden and Aikman are probably the elite of their class (of color analysists), but both probably don't get to watch the Redskins play more than once or twice a year. We, as fans of the team, should be far more knowledgable about our own players because we follow the team religiously. I wouldn't put too much stock into the opinion of a member of the television media, even if that person happens to be one of the better analysts. It's pretty outlandish for anyone to make a statement concerning the effectiveness of a single player who they do not get to see often without at least consulting statistics to see if their claim can ever remotely be justified. Having a big name doesn't excuse idiocy.

As far as those 5 reasons you gave, I would agree that they all contribute to Campbell's in experience and I believe that Campbell's inexperience is the problem. We all know that Campbell is not even close to his prime yet, and that we can expect a steady improvement from him until then.

I'm just saying that it doesn't take an experienced player to complete more than 51% of his passes. He was making A LOT of mistakes concerning where to go with the football, and put simply wasn't completing passes during his first 5 starts. I can assure you he would have completed more passes and moved the ball/sustained drives better had he not tried to take the most difficult route option every other play, and setting himself up for failure.

In the last two games, he seemed to stop forcing the ball downfield, took what the defense gave him, and improved his completion % considerably. It certainly isn't his fault that we didn't win those games.

I would say it's a bad thing in our situation. I believe Madden or Aikman pointed this stat out during one of the games that we were really struggling in the passing game. Aikman did a few of our games so that means they break down film on us and so forth. And I remember Aikman making several comments about our offense needing to back the defense off of the line of scrimmage.

Remember that Elway had a real low % his first year starting. Manning threw 28 ints his first year starting. If he were completing 51% after the end of next year then you would have an argument. But nothing in his past suggests that this will continue. He was always above or around 60% in college.

I personally hope Brunell's shoulder heals and he comes back. He will be more comfortable in Al's offense. But I would let Collins compete for the back-up job.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

I would say it's a bad thing in our situation. I believe Madden or Aikman pointed this stat out during one of the games that we were really struggling in the passing game. Aikman did a few of our games so that means they break down film on us and so forth. And I remember Aikman making several comments about our offense needing to back the defense off of the line of scrimmage.

Remember that Elway had a real low % his first year starting. Manning threw 28 ints his first year starting. If he were completing 51% after the end of next year then you would have an argument. But nothing in his past suggests that this will continue. He was always above or around 60% in college.

I personally hope Brunell's shoulder heals and he comes back. He will be more comfortable in Al's offense. But I would let Collins compete for the back-up job.

Elway actually has a really low career completion %. I mean, looking at that one stat out of context, it would seem silly to debate HOF credentials for Elway.

But John Elway did play in an era when QB friendly offenses pretty much only existed by way of the run n shoot, and the Bill Walsh west coast. I actually think the system that Elway was in (with Dan Reeves) for the 12 years of his career was one of the most QB unfriendly systems ever. A lot of vertical, not necessarily drive sustaining, but because of Elway, the system was successful.

But for a ROOKIE QB, a low completion % is acceptable. Very rarely is a rookie QB ever good enough to play much above replacement level. Matt Leinart was one exception, and Peyton Manning was another...but even they struggled mightily compared to what weve come to expect from them.

But that's the thing about Campbell--he wasn't a rookie. He had been practicing with NFL caliber talent every week for the last year and a half. The adjustment period between practice and a game was inevitable, but the propensity to force the ball downfield just seemed a bit perplexing. It's not like this was an issue with Campbell in college. He had a very good completion % in college. It just manifested itself for 5 games, and then disapeared for the last two. Weird.

Because of what he did in college, and the fact that he's now a 3rd year pro with 7 starts under his belt, we should see a numbers spike in Campbell. If we see no improvement this year, I'd be very worried about the accuracy of his projection. 7 games is a relatively small sample to judge a player, but because of the hype surrounding this kid in sabremetric circles, I guess I just expected to see smarter decision making right off the bat.

51% is still inexcusable for any non-rookie QB, and Campbell wasn't a rookie last year. Raw, yes. A rookie fresh out of college? Not at all.

[Campbell17]

I like our schedule this year because we start off with a very easy schedule, our hardest game before week 8 should be Monday Night v.s. the Eagles in Philly. I live in Jersey and my dad has season tickets for the eagles that he sells on stub-hub and goes to a few games. I will probably be at the game because we always get the 'skins games. We also have really good 'skins seats which we drive 3 hours to any chance we get and use a lot more than our eagles. I honestly think that we could be undefeted, going into week 8 v.s. the pats. Not to mention, we are a much better team down the stretch and a good start could boost us into the play-offs. The only bad part was that we don't get many easy games towards the end other than the Bills and Bucs.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Elway actually has a really low career completion %. I mean, looking at that one stat out of context, it would seem silly to debate HOF credentials for Elway.

But John Elway did play in an era when QB friendly offenses pretty much only existed by way of the run n shoot, and the Bill Walsh west coast. I actually think the system that Elway was in (with Dan Reeves) for the 12 years of his career was one of the most QB unfriendly systems ever. A lot of vertical, not necessarily drive sustaining, but because of Elway, the system was successful.

But for a ROOKIE QB, a low completion % is acceptable. Very rarely is a rookie QB ever good enough to play much above replacement level. Matt Leinart was one exception, and Peyton Manning was another...but even they struggled mightily compared to what weve come to expect from them.

But that's the thing about Campbell--he wasn't a rookie. He had been practicing with NFL caliber talent every week for the last year and a half. The adjustment period between practice and a game was inevitable, but the propensity to force the ball downfield just seemed a bit perplexing. It's not like this was an issue with Campbell in college. He had a very good completion % in college. It just manifested itself for 5 games, and then disapeared for the last two. Weird.

Because of what he did in college, and the fact that he's now a 3rd year pro with 7 starts under his belt, we should see a numbers spike in Campbell. If we see no improvement this year, I'd be very worried about the accuracy of his projection. 7 games is a relatively small sample to judge a player, but because of the hype surrounding this kid in sabremetric circles, I guess I just expected to see smarter decision making right off the bat.

51% is still inexcusable for any non-rookie QB, and Campbell wasn't a rookie last year. Raw, yes. A rookie fresh out of college? Not at all.

51% is not inexcusable at all. The coaches were all happy with his performace and that's more important than what picky fans think. They see this guy up close everyday and they know how good he can be. Remember his first year he didn't do anything but watch. He didn't even run the scout team. He was the 3rd qb. Year two he ran the scout team. Either way he DID NOT get any reps w/ Moss, Cooley, Lloyd and ARE. No game experience and had to learn yet another offense. What Qb would come in and complete 60% and have a high rating in this situation? Not many if any. I think if you would stop just looking at completion % and rating you would see some of the good things the guy did. What were we suppose to do? Leave in Brunell? C'mon.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

51% is not inexcusable at all. The coaches were all happy with his performace and that's more important than what picky fans think. They see this guy up close everyday and they know how good he can be. Remember his first year he didn't do anything but watch. He didn't even run the scout team. He was the 3rd qb. Year two he ran the scout team. Either way he DID NOT get any reps w/ Moss, Cooley, Lloyd and ARE. No game experience and had to learn yet another offense. What Qb would come in and complete 60% and have a high rating in this situation? Not many if any. I think if you would stop just looking at completion % and rating you would see some of the good things the guy did. What were we suppose to do? Leave in Brunell? C'mon.

The coaches did the right thing...even if they cost us a few wins, that pales in comparision to the value of getting the young guy out on the field in a lost season. Once the season became lost, it was really a no brainer.

I was not expecting him to come in and set the world on fire. I was just hoping to see more than just a small glimpse of what he is capable of. I was hoping to see Campbell put up Brunell like numbers, something I know he is capable of. I was frusterated when he was forcing the ball, something that is totally uncharacteristic of a great QB no matter how far along he is in his development.

[KLHJ2]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The coaches did the right thing...even if they cost us a few wins, that pales in comparision to the value of getting the young guy out on the field in a lost season. Once the season became lost, it was really a no brainer.

I was not expecting him to come in and set the world on fire. I was just hoping to see more than just a small glimpse of what he is capable of. I was hoping to see Campbell put up Brunell like numbers, something I know he is capable of. I was frusterated when he was forcing the ball, something that is totally uncharacteristic of a great QB no matter how far along he is in his development.

While I agree that he forced too many, I have to disagree that great QB's don't. Case and point Bret Favre.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by angryssg

While I agree that he forced too many, I have to disagree that great QB's don't. Case and point Bret Favre.

Farve does force a lot of balls, but that's something he never outgrew despite his greatness. It wasn't a developmental thing, just a flaw in his otherwise flawless game.

[KLHJ2]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Farve does force a lot of balls, but that's something he never outgrew despite his greatness. It wasn't a developmental thing, just a flaw in his otherwise flawless game.

Well if that turns out to be JC's only flaw and he ends up as good as Favre I would not be upset.