The Mid Round QB fallacy

[30gut]

Originally Posted by PHazard

. FOR THE LOVE OF EVERYTHING HOLY, MARY MOTHER OF JESUS, PLEASE DO NOT LET US DRAFT COLT MCCOY!

What do you have against McCoy?
Especially in the 2nd round?
Any knock on McCoy is likely shared with Bradford?

I think McCoy has the tools to be a fine NFL QB.
He reminds me of someone that Shanahan has coached before.
And its a comparison i'm embarrassed to make.

But on completely anecdotal note if anyone listens to Mike&Mike?
Does anyone recall Big Mike mention in passing how he ran into Mike Shanahan at an ND game earlier this year?

[PHazard]

Originally Posted by 30gut

What do you have against McCoy?
Especially in the 2nd round?
Any knock on McCoy is likely shared with Bradford?

I think McCoy has the tools to be a fine NFL QB.
He reminds me of someone that Shanahan has coached before.
And its a comparison i'm embarrassed to make.

But on completely anecdotal note if anyone listens to Mike&Mike?
Does anyone recall Big Mike mention in passing how he ran into Mike Shanahan at an ND game earlier this year?

Just after watching so much film on him there is nothing that really jumps out at me. He looks like nothing more than a kicker or a punter to me ( i know thats not a technical evaluation but just based on sight.) He is one of the weaker armed QB's in the whole draft. Whats he like 190-200 lbs? Kinda small as far as NFL passers go. He had a decent year statistically last year but having Campbell, we've all been shown that stats can lie. He had a much worse year this year. I know he is good at winning but everytime i saw him play a team that was more on Texas's level, he struggled. I just see more potential in the LeFevour's, Pike's, Kafka's of the mid round world than i do with him. Just absolutely NOTHING jumps out at me about him that says, hey we might have some potential here.

But i digress.....if we get him, ill hafta find a way to support him :frusty:

[30gut]

Originally Posted by PHazard

Just after watching so much film on him there is nothing that really jumps out at me.

What 'film' did you watch?
Athletiscim and quick feet didn't jump out to you?

He is one of the weaker armed QB's in the whole draft. Whats he like 190-200 lbs? Kinda small as far as NFL passers go.

Huh? Weaker arm's in the draft? Care to support such a bold claim with anything?
While he's not big he's 6'2 which is a typical height for a pro QB and he's 212 and has a solid build.

He had a decent year statistically last year but having Campbell, we've all been shown that stats can lie.

So now your questioning his stats, have you seen his stats? You realize he's been a Heisman Trophy candidate?

I know he is good at winning but everytime i saw him play a team that was more on Texas's level, he struggled.

Winning is kinda something that coaches like, lol and btw he's won a lot check his the records *hint* most wins in college football.

I just see more potential in the LeFevour's, Pike's, Kafka's of the mid round world than i do with him.

You realize that he's rated much higher then the guys you mentioned and Paul Burmeister thinks he could gain on Claussen.

Just absolutely NOTHING jumps out at me about him that says, hey we might have some potential here.

What jumps out about the QBs that you mentioned?

-Me thinks you haven't watched him play much and are giving a completely unsupported opinion.

Here's some Texas short cuts i think if you watch with an open mind you'll have a different opinion of McCoy

You Tube

You Tube

You Tube

You Tube

You Tube

[SmootSmack]

Jevan Snead-4th round. You heard it here first...and probably last

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Jevan Snead-4th round. You heard it here first...and probably last

Dan LeFevour.

[GTripp0012]

You also have to consider that the Raiders don't think they need a quarterback, even though they obviously do.

[PHazard]

yeah i was going based on my opinion. but still that makes it 8 or 9 teams that pick before then and there are only 2 QB's considered "elite"

[GTripp0012]

And, even though he's not a mid rounder, I'm going to nominate Paul Justin for most valuable quarterback to never really have a career

Paul Justin NFL & AFL Football Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com

I also submit the depth chart of Trent Green-Kurt Warner-Paul Justin for the 1999 Rams to be the strongest depth chart at the QB position in the history of the NFL.

[SirClintonPortis]

The OP uses a limited and narrow sample to "prove" a point. A complete sampling of all starting QBs' draft position and how well they actually played regardless of whether or not the made the damn playoffs would paint a more complete picture. Drew Brees was a monster in 2008 and the Saints didn't make the damn playoffs because his defense was crap, not because he couldn't play.

[PHazard]

Yes those are alot of the cut ups that i had seen before when scouting McCoy. I see his athleticism back there and his quick feet, but if i was looking for athleticism and quick feet id jump on the "TRADE FOR MICHAEL VICK" bandwagon.
How can you not say he has a weak arm? he throws alot of lob balls and even his intermediate throws dont have that ZIP on it that you'd, scratch that, that I'D like to see.
Yes ive seen his stats, BUT THEY ARE COLLEGE STATS! Wit Spread offenses ANY JOE SHMO can have good passing stats. Andre Ware? Timmy Chang? Graham Harrell? Danny Wuerffel? Akili Smith? Tim Couch? Tim Tebow? Colt Brennan? Any of these ring a bell? All put up huge numbers in college and then did terrible in the pros (jury is still out on Brennan and Tebow.) And McCoy was a heisman finalist? So what? Tim Tebow, Andre Ware, and Danny Wuerffel WON the heisman and Ware and Wuerffel were EPIC FAILS and Tebow is currently being called a project.
I understand that he has the current record for most wins by a QB in college history. But he got to start ALL 4 YEARS. Not everyone gets that chance. And they've had a dominant defense all 4 years. You cant contribute every win to a QB there are 53 other players that contribute to a teams success. But ill give him that, ur the face of the team so you get the blame when you lose and the glory when you win. Just saying, you dont always play with teams on your level when you're ranked as high as Texas usually is and when the playing field was more even, he struggled. In the NFL, its like that week in and week out.
i'm not supporting the LeFevour's, Kafka's, or Pike's of the world. It was just an example sayin i see more potential in guys who are rated far lower than he is. i'm not sayin we should draft one of them but they would cost FAR less therefore have less of a BUST potential.
We can agree to disagree, I just dont like McCoy as an NFL prospect. He's expensive (2nd round pick), and i dont see how he is an upgrade on our current 3rd string QB Colt Brennan. Brennan is ALREADY on our roster and didn't cost us a 2nd round pick. Seems foolish to me, with so many other needs, to spend a 2nd rounder on a Brennan clone (who IMO, isnt as good)

[30gut]

Originally Posted by PHazard

We can agree to disagree, I just dont like McCoy as an NFL prospect.

Agreed no worries bro, if my post seemed antagonistic it wasn't my intention, but unsupported statements against any player bother me.

Originally Posted by PHazard

He is one of the weaker armed QB's in the whole draft.

I want to address the arm strength point and be done with it:

Scout.com: Colt McCoy Profile
Scouting Report: McCoy is a quarterback that gets the job done, whether it’s with his arm or legs. He does possess an above average arm and he can throw with touch or velocity. Perhaps his best attribute is his ability to make something happen out of nothing. McCoy has deceptive quickness and speed and is a strong runner.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
McCoy
http://www.newerascouting.com/07/col...outing-report/

Arm strength: Good zip on crossing routes. Throws hard to openings at 10-15 yards. Pushes the ball deep when throwing right and left. Leads receivers deep over the middle, but can put the ball in their chest too.

http://www.newerascouting.com/01/sam...outing-report/

Bradford
Arm strength: Bradford’s arm strength is good enough. He can’t bomb passes like JaMarcus Russell, but it’s good enough to complete deep outs. Bradford’s arm is probably best suited for a West Coast scheme, but that’s not to say he should exclusively play in that scheme. Puts a really nice touch on the ball.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by 30gut

I want to address the arm strength point and be done with it:

Scout.com: Colt McCoy Profile
Scouting Report: McCoy is a quarterback that gets the job done, whether it’s with his arm or legs. He does possess an above average arm and he can throw with touch or velocity. Perhaps his best attribute is his ability to make something happen out of nothing. McCoy has deceptive quickness and speed and is a strong runner.

Based on the link, this is his HS to college scouting report.

There are certainly questions about McCoy's his arm strength:

Colt McCoy, 2010 NFL Draft Prospect

WalterFootball.com: 2010 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Colt McCoy

Colt McCoy, Texas, NFL Draft - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

His performances in the Big 12 Title game and BCS Championship also leave some questions to be answered. His number of completions under 10yds is also pretty high, if I remember correctly.

If we go LT with the # 4 and the choice is between him or your other scenario with Pouncey in the second, I take Pouncey. I really like your idea if Clausen is gone.

[Dirtbag59]

The thing that scares me about McCoy is what appears to be a lack of variety in his throws. In watching his highlights it feels like every 3 out of 4 throws is to the middle of the field and very rarely longer then 15 yards.

I could be wrong but I want to see a wider array of throws from McCoy especially outs, comebacks, Hitch n Goes, Fades, deep post, etc. Right now I feel like most of the throws I see from him are swings, slants, and 7 yard digs.

Part of the reason I'm high on Clausen is he has a lot of highlights where he makes a lot of those difficult throws. Bradford also seems to have a handful of tough throws, though I must admit that he throws a lot of slants and swings himself. It's just that McCoy seems to do it so often that I'm not very confident in his ability to be a QB at the next level.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

Based on the link, this is his HS to college scouting report.

There are certainly questions about McCoy's his arm strength:

Colt McCoy, 2010 NFL Draft Prospect

WalterFootball.com: 2010 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Colt McCoy

Colt McCoy, Texas, NFL Draft - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

His performances in the Big 12 Title game and BCS Championship also leave some questions to be answered. His number of completions under 10yds is also pretty high, if I remember correctly.

If we go LT with the # 4 and the choice is between him or your other scenario with Pouncey in the second, I take Pouncey. I really like your idea if Clausen is gone.

Thanks for the correction you're 100% right that was a HS report, i should have caught that.

And you're right there are some scouts that have concerns about his arm strength.

But, its one thing to have questions about certain aspects of his arm strength almost every QB coming out except for a few like Claussen and Brown have questions about there arm strength. But, saying that there are question is quite different from saying he has one of the weakest arms in the draft.

Although i visit some of the site you mentioned i only do so because they have links and data compiled in one place. But a lot of those guys have no more scouting credentials then you or I.

And McGuire at Walters gives some of the least professional 'scouting' reports that i've seen.

You're right though he does throw a high % of short passes but that's a by product of the system and when you put up insane efficiency numbers your bound to throw a lot of slants, hitches and screens.

Its not unique to McCoy or to the spread; i hate to compare college offenses to pros but plenty of QBs like Bress, Brady, McNabb, throw a lot of RB/WR screens and it helps run an effecient offense.

I agree that McCoy doesn't make those 'NFL' throws often but he does and can make them.

I feel like we're side-tracking this thread into a QB discussion but...when i was snowed in last week i looked at alot of youtube cuts ups and downloaded some games of the Bradford, Claussen and McCoy.

And i don't see a huge difference in their skillsets.

I broke down the Texas Vs UCF game and McCoy makes some of those NFL throws that people are looking for and if you look at the other game shorts you'll see he makes a few of those 'stick' throws every game.

Seriously, you take a look he throws 17 passes in the short cuts.
A greater concern about McCoy is that he often doesn't plant hard on his lead leg and ends up using his arm to drive the ball instead of his legs. But i digress.

*If anyone wants to compare notes from the UCF short cuts send a PM

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

The thing that scares me about McCoy is what appears to be a lack of variety in his throws. In watching his highlights it feels like every 3 out of 4 throws is to the middle of the field and very rarely longer then 15 yards.

I could be wrong but I want to see a wider array of throws from McCoy especially outs, comebacks, Hitch n Goes, Fades, deep post, etc. Right now I feel like most of the throws I see from him are swings, slants, and 7 yard digs.

Part of the reason I'm high on Clausen is he has a lot of highlights where he makes a lot of those difficult throws. Bradford also seems to have a handful of tough throws, though I must admit that he throws a lot of slants and swings himself. It's just that McCoy seems to do it so often that I'm not very confident in his ability to be a QB at the next level.

I don't think he's much different from Bradford when it comes to throwing short passes, its a by product of system predicated on effeciency.

But, if you look at any of the short-cuts you'll see the throws you're looking for granted the ball doesn't jump of his arm like Clausen but McCoy makes a few stick throws everygame but his offense wasn't built around those passes.

I don't think McCoy questions marks are about wether or not he'll make it as an NFL QB i think his questions are how long will it take.

[30gut]

I didn't know where else to put it, but here's my breakdown of McCoy in the Texas Vs UCF game:
R is where the pass was releases C is where it was caught
t/t - on time on target s/p/d/f-step into throw/plant the leg/drive the ball/follow through

YouTube - Texas Vs UCF Highlights 11/07/09

1) R34/C54 Out on time/target-good step/plant drive+follow thru w/ people around him

2) Quick screen good

3)R7/C22 Comeback-good t/t,g s/p/d/f

4)R19/C39 good scramble kept eyes downfield steps into it on target

5)R46/C32 kinda half steps it/slings it but on t/t

6)R25/C41 good pass on t/t-s/p/d good coverage

7)R45/C37 half steps w/o plant/drive but slung it out there pretty good on t/t

8)R51/C23 more then a half-step but not a pronounced plant and drive, good pass (i think i'm starting to nit-pick here)

9)R1/C29 sprint/roll right step into throw but off balance nice pass though t/t

10) R29/C52 short/half step but on t/t tight window good accuracy
* showed nice athleticism

11)R37own/C38theirs out right t/t good s/p/d

12) roll right gets steps into throw on the run good coverage but better accuracy

13)R8/C-5 endzone good pocket poise on run tight window nice pass

14)R5endzone/C8 good anticipation/trust a bit off target good delivery

15)R5/C@their 45 Shipley toasted that DB nice route good delivery on target pass

16)R50/C40 good delivery

17)R37/C25 nice fluid delivery didn't 'fire' the ball but didn't have too