McNabb a Redskin! (Part II)

[MTK]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

4 missed games in the last three years is hardly an "injury record for disproof of your statement". If anything McNabb is consciously scrambling less and avoiding unnecessary contact based on his run production and watching the guy play.

What are these decline signs?

- His completion %? It's been the best 3 year span of his career 2007-09.
- Passing Yds? same as above.
- QB Rate? his career average is 86.5, 2007 = 89.9, 2008 = 86.4, 2009 = 92.9.
- TD % and INT % are consistent with his career averages over the last three years.
- Sack % is consistent with his career average, slightly higher in 2007 & 2009, but way down in 2008.
- Playoff appearances in 2008 (NFC Championship appearance) & 2009
- Team record 2007 - 8-8, 2008 - 9-6-1, 2009 - 11-5, trends upward.

I don't see any evidence of decline from the stats. The guy is 33, if he sticks around and gives us the level of production he has for 3-4 years, this deal is an absolute steal for us. With the advances in sports medicine over the last 10 years, who's to say he can't be prodcutive until he's 37-38?

I've yet to see any proof of this so called decline either.

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-..._1021281_n.jpg

lol EA is on top of their game getting that up there

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

4 missed games in the last three years is hardly an "injury record for disproof of your statement". If anything McNabb is consciously scrambling less and avoiding unnecessary contact based on his run production and watching the guy play.

What are these decline signs?

- His completion %? It's been the best 3 year span of his career 2007-09.
- Passing Yds? same as above.
- QB Rate? his career average is 86.5, 2007 = 89.9, 2008 = 86.4, 2009 = 92.9.
- TD % and INT % are consistent with his career averages over the last three years.
- Sack % is consistent with his career average, slightly higher in 2007 & 2009, but way down in 2008.
- Playoff appearances in 2008 (NFC Championship appearance) & 2009
- Team record 2007 - 8-8, 2008 - 9-6-1, 2009 - 11-5, trends upward.

I don't see any evidence of decline from the stats. The guy is 33, if he sticks around and gives us the level of production he has for 3-4 years, this deal is an absolute steal for us. With the advances in sports medicine over the last 10 years, who's to say he can't be prodcutive until he's 37-38?

Well, first, the age figure is what makes you look at it.

Is 2 out of 3 seasons where McNabb missed consecutive weeks with an injury FOLLOWING a torn ACL season not an injury history? He plays quarterback. Does he need to take the crutches onto the field with him?

McNabb's most recent 6 years, as a whole (2 pro bowls) have been better than his first five developmental years (3 pro bowls). That's the part that would classify as his prime.

You're mistaking the inflation of statistics in the last three years as an appreciation of the player. Take a look at the Indexes under advanced passing on his PFR page, as they adjust for the era. Then split his prime into 2004-06 and 2007-09. The decline is much more evident looking at the context-adjusted figures. Sack rate = down, yards per attempt = down, net yards per attempt = down, Td rate = down. INT rate is pretty constant.

The sabermetrics just see a passing offense in the 12-17 range each of the last 3 years and McNabb between 10-20. He was pretty good in both 2004 and 2006, and injured most of 2005 with that sports hernia, but since 2007, he's been less good. Now his age is a serious deterrent, which is the biggest difference. Other WCO quarterbacks haven't made it past this point, notably Hasselbeck.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

I've yet to see any proof of this so called decline either.

[sarcasm]Oh, it's just hidden. The talent around him was just that much better.[/sarcasm] Seriously, though McNabb would have been nearing 4000 yds last season if he didn't miss two games.

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Perhaps, but it's also obviously relevant.

I wonder how many search results on here would come up for that phrase haha

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by SBXVII

The way I'm looking at this.....

A 100% awsome trade now package him up with something to the Rams for the #1 pick and Bradford.

I just get the feeling something is up and I guess we'll all have to wait and see.

Nah we got the replica jerseys up already

Matty would be PISSED!

[GTripp0012]

Here's Delhomme:

Jake Delhomme NFL & AFL Football Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Split it into 2003-05, and then 2006-08. If those six years represent his prime, it's his age 33 season that looks like a complete outlier. Then he turns 34, and, well you saw football this season.

My point was that didn't sneak up on anyone, Delhomme had a horrendous game in the playoffs. Just saying.

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by sandtrapjack

Wow the Eagles are staged for some wheeling and dealing in the draft, or perhaps a serious youth movement in the City of Brotherly Love.

After this trade, I think that the Eagles now have 10 or 12 picks total in this years draft. Whats more is 6 of those picks are in the first 3 rounds. That are staged man.

No doubt, if they draft well they're gonna be stacked in the coming years.

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by Trample the Elderly

I would be willing to say that JC is worth a bag of pork rinds in a trade to Oakland.

If we're trading for pork rinds I don't trust Oakland, let's go Carolina, even if it's just half of a bag.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

[sarcasm]Oh, it's just hidden. The talent around him was just that much better.[/sarcasm] Seriously, though McNabb would have been nearing 4000 yds last season if he didn't miss two games.

Yeah, if only you add Kolb's passing games to Donovan's you get this monster known as Philadelphia quarterback, who is a 4,000 yd player.

But don't do that, because that would imply McNabb is a product of the system. You don't want to go there.

[SirClintonPortis]

Redskins Insider - McNabb to Redskins: How the trade was made
Reid reports half the teams in the league at least inquired about McNabb. I think it's safe to bet the Pats, Colts, Saints, Pitt, Giants, Cowboys, Packers, Lions, and Bears didn't bother.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Yeah, if only you add Kolb's passing games to Donovan's you get this monster known as Philadelphia quarterback, who is a 4,000 yd player.

But don't do that, because that would imply McNabb is a product of the system. You don't want to go there.

I'm assuming 200 yds a game. Only less than 100 yds shy of the mark.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

The problem is we would have to include our 4th overall. So to get Bradford now, would cost 1st rd, 2rd (McNabb), 4th next year(McNabb), and probably another player or a 1st or 2nd next year. Way too much at this point.

Yeah doesn't make much sense to give all that up for an unproven rookie who will get a monster contract.

[SBXVII]

What I don't understand is why did we have a poll in the "McNabb to Washington" thread with over 60% of the people saying "NO" and then all of a sudden instead of using the same poll we had to make a new poll in the "McNabb a Redskin (I)" thread?

I know some might try to twist the poll by saying one was prior to McNabb coming and the other was after we learned he was already here, but I'd argue I thought the first poll went up after McNabb was already named last night. Why didn't we just change the title and keep the same votes vs. starting a whole new poll with all the yes people?

[MTK]

Huh?

The first poll was up on Saturday. The new one went up this morning.

Thought it would be an interesting compare/contrast.