2012 Presidential Election (free for all edition)

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

Romney's not winning VA, tell you that right now. He'll squeak NC maybe. And Florida is razor close.

Obama's baseline EV is more in the 240 range.

I can tell you with certainty that Romney will not squeak out North Carolina. rather it will be as close to dark red as a swing state can get.

Virginia, you're closer to that area then me obviously so maybe you know better but everything I've read and heard from family and friends say it's going to be a Romney win.

Florida for better or worse has a large senior population that believes Obamacare is going to raid Medicare and full implementation will cause quality doctors to retire. Obviously Obamacare can't simply be overturned but with Obama reelected theres not even a chance of budget reconciliation.

Keep in mind I have great respect for the AHCA. It's the reason I'm insured today and the reason why I didn't have to wait to get covered when I got hired for my current job. And the most important thing is even if overturned it will force any bill passed in the future to have some sort of protection for people like me with preexisting conditions. With that said the bill is overkill and needs to be reigned in but I don't agree that it's the end of the world like the GOP will have you believe.

Back to poll skewing though. The reason I'm intrigued is apparently back in 2010 the models used mirrored the turnout of the 2008 election with a democratic advantage in states like Ohio around +8. During the midterms the turnout favored Republicans +1 despite polls sampling more Democrats.

Thats part of the reason I'm hedging my bets between Obama barely winning (in line with a decent amount of polls inside the margin of error) and a Romney landslide (that in retrospect would show polls oversampling Dems).

In the end it will be interesting to see if the concept of poll skewing is legit or just a GOP conspiracy theory.

[MTK]

I say Obama wins and its probably not all that close.

[12thMan]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

I say Obama wins and its probably not all that close.

I tend to agree with this.

[12thMan]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

I can tell you with certainty that Romney will not squeak out North Carolina. rather it will be as close to dark red as a swing state can get.

Virginia, you're closer to that area then me obviously so maybe you know better but everything I've read and heard from family and friends say it's going to be a Romney win.

Florida for better or worse has a large senior population that believes Obamacare is going to raid Medicare and full implementation will cause quality doctors to retire. Obviously Obamacare can't simply be overturned but with Obama reelected theres not even a chance of budget reconciliation.

Keep in mind I have great respect for the AHCA. It's the reason I'm insured today and the reason why I didn't have to wait to get covered when I got hired for my current job. And the most important thing is even if overturned it will force any bill passed in the future to have some sort of protection for people like me with preexisting conditions. With that said the bill is overkill and needs to be reigned in but I don't agree that it's the end of the world like the GOP will have you believe.

Back to poll skewing though. The reason I'm intrigued is apparently back in 2010 the models used mirrored the turnout of the 2008 election with a democratic advantage in states like Ohio around +8. During the midterms the turnout favored Republicans +1 despite polls sampling more Democrats.

Thats part of the reason I'm hedging my bets between Obama barely winning (in line with a decent amount of polls inside the margin of error) and a Romney landslide (that in retrospect would show polls oversampling Dems).

In the end it will be interesting to see if the concept of poll skewing is legit or just a GOP conspiracy theory.

In 2008 Obama won North Carolina by a meager 14,000 votes. Even if Romney wins, the state is probably more purple than red. I don't just don't see a decisive victory there.

We'll see.

[12thMan]

Also, just wanted to say SlinginSammy and Firstdown are good stand up guys. Disagree though we may, they're solid family dudes and I believe they want what's best for the country.

GMScud on the other hand, shady mofo

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

Also, just wanted to say SlinginSammy and Firstdown are good stand up guys. Disagree though we may, they're solid family dudes and I believe they want what's best for the country.

GMScud on the other hand, shady mofo

Thx 12th, right back at you. and agree on GMScud, lol.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by Daseal

What is the bet?!

2 hundo.

[dmek25]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

Huff Post

Lets look at real numbers:

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

dont know how they figure, but Penn is solidly for lord O....game , set, match

[NC_Skins]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

In 2008 Obama won North Carolina by a meager 14,000 votes. Even if Romney wins, the state is probably more purple than red. I don't just don't see a decisive victory there.

We'll see.

Early voting results 2012 - Associated Press - POLITICO.com


North Carolina

Votes: 2.1 million

Democrats: 48 percent

Republicans: 32 percent




This is just party affiliation, but I highly doubt that any Dems will be voting Romney. Either Dems are eager in NC or the Repubs are holding off till voting day. Bastards don't have the independents listed


I voted this past Friday.

[JPPT1974]

It is going to take an act of both Congress and the Senate to ditch the electoral college. As nobody seems to like it at all! They need to only go for the popularity votes.

Ever heard of Florida 2000? That is how we noticed the electoral college thing in the first place!

[NC_Skins]

Most of Congress coming back despite low approval - Yahoo! News


America voters are idiots. Really are.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by dmek25

dont know how they figure, but Penn is solidly for lord O....game , set, match

PA is really a non-factor, it's fool's gold for the GOP, but with the polls tightening it forces Dem $$$ to be allocated in PA just to be safe.

Romney does not in any way, shape, or form need PA to win. If (when) VA, NC, FL fall into the GOP column, the only remaining hope Obama has is OH...and even if by a miracle Obama steals Ohio, then if CO/WI/NH/NV or some combination of those fall GOP Romney can still win. It appears all eyes will be around the Great Lakes late on Nov. 6th.

Watch Rasmussen's polls, he's historically been one of, if not the most, accurate over the last 8 years.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

Most of Congress coming back despite low approval - Yahoo! News


America voters are idiots. Really are.

The guy I'm curious about is Todd Akin, last I looked a couple of weeks ago he was ahead.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

Also, just wanted to say SlinginSammy and Firstdown are good stand up guys. Disagree though we may, they're solid family dudes and I believe they want what's best for the country.

GMScud on the other hand, shady mofo

Why thanks and the same back to you. AS far as how this will turn out no one at this point knows who going to win. Jobs numbers coming out tommorow will show a flat number around 158,000 new jobs but thats only enough to replace the jobs lost last month. That will not help Obama and now that I see people starting to beg for help from Sandy on the news that might over the next few days hurt Obama. Only time will tell.

[Giantone]

Originally Posted by firstdown

I see people starting to beg for help from Sandy on the news that might over the next few days hurt Obama. Only time will tell.

What???