Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[URL]http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=2924354[/URL]

Pretty much nothing we didn't already know, but it's somewhat redeeming to see that ST isn't alone in his struggles.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

Gtripp - can you paste the story onto a post - I'm not a subscriber to ESPN Insider.

Thanks

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

See, I read that and then I see the company he's in like Ed Reed and I still feel OK about our situation. They always talk about these metrics and honestly if you look at other safeties in the league, I'll take Reed and Taylor over them any day regardless of this metric junk.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[QUOTE=Bill B;325282]Gtripp - can you paste the story onto a post - I'm not a subscriber to ESPN Insider.

Thanks[/QUOTE]

yeah that makes 2

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

what metric shows how long it takes people to get up after being hit?
or the metric that accounts for Taylor covering for AA?

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=TheMalcolmConnection;325283]See, I read that and then I see the company he's in like Ed Reed and I still feel OK about our situation. They always talk about these metrics and honestly if you look at other safeties in the league, I'll take Reed and Taylor over them any day regardless of this metric junk.[/quote]I'd rather have the safety that breaks up the pass and prevents the yards, but I guess I'm weird for being in that junk.

Who needs good defense when you can see people get lit up!

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

From the article

[B][U]Sean Taylor[/U][/B]

Taylor made the Pro Bowl as an injury replacement, but the metrics make it clear he didn't earn the spot. He ranked 20th in both deep assist YPA and deep assist success percentage. He did even worse when in direct coverage, as his 10.7 YPA in those situations was the seventh worst in the NFL last year. He also gave up the second-most total yards of any coverage safety. Taylor did do a lot more to support the run last year than he did in years past, but even taking that into account, he really wasn't a Pro Bowl-level coverage safety last year.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=GTripp0012;325287]From the article

[B][U]Sean Taylor[/U][/B]

Taylor made the Pro Bowl as an injury replacement, but the metrics make it clear he didn't earn the spot. He ranked 20th in both deep assist YPA and deep assist success percentage. He did even worse when in direct coverage, as his 10.7 YPA in those situations was the seventh worst in the NFL last year. He also gave up the second-most total yards of any coverage safety. Taylor did do a lot more to support the run last year than he did in years past, but even taking that into account, he really wasn't a Pro Bowl-level coverage safety last year.[/quote]


Thanks - I hope Taylor comes back to surprise people this year with his coverage

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=Bill B;325288]Thanks - I hope Taylor comes back to surprise people this year with his coverage[/quote]As do I.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=GTripp0012;325287]From the article

[B][U]Sean Taylor[/U][/B]

Taylor made the Pro Bowl as an injury replacement, but the metrics make it clear he didn't earn the spot. He ranked 20th in both deep assist YPA and deep assist success percentage. He did even worse when in direct coverage, as his 10.7 YPA in those situations was the seventh worst in the NFL last year. He also gave up the second-most total yards of any coverage safety. Taylor did do a lot more to support the run last year than he did in years past, but even taking that into account, he really wasn't a Pro Bowl-level coverage safety last year.[/quote]

Hmmmmm, I think his hit on that poor kicker says otherwise.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=GTripp0012;325286]I'd rather have the safety that breaks up the pass and prevents the yards, but I guess I'm weird for being in that junk.

Who needs good defense when you can see people get lit up![/quote]

I'm not even talking about that. I think a lot of that stuff is overrated. Big hits aside, I'm talking about pure difference makers. I think that a lot of people would say that Reed or Taylor are bigger difference makers than anyone who "rates" metrically higher.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=hesscl34;325294]Hmmmmm, I think his hit on that poor kicker says otherwise.[/quote]Neither here nor there in a thread about pass coverage.

Still, quite entertaining.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=TheMalcolmConnection;325295]I'm not even talking about that. I think a lot of that stuff is overrated. Big hits aside, I'm talking about pure difference makers. I think that a lot of people would say that Reed or Taylor are bigger difference makers than anyone who "rates" metrically higher.[/quote]What differences are there that are more important than preventing foward moving offense? Interceptions, maybe?

ST had a mere one of those that year.

If he's not good at playing safety, thats the only think I care about.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

I don't think it was him so much as it was the team around him last year. Obviously his first two years in the league he was good to great, then the entire team goes down the drain...

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

I guess Joyner has no clue who John Lynch is, the most overrated safety in the leauge besides Roy Williams. How in the world does Joyner get away with putting Ed Reed, and Sean Taylor in the overrated list?, and forgets all about John Lynch who is the most deserving I mean this guy steals a pro bowl spot every year from a way more deserving safety just because his name is John Lynch. I will admit Lynch was a above average safety with the Bucs, but since he has been with the Broncos he has been horrendous.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

Metrics aren't going to tell you the impact of Sean Taylor missing the Tampa game two years ago, allowing Chris Simms to own the middle of the field deep and resulting in over 30 points scored by the Bucs. And possibly costing us the division title in the long run.

Metrics aren't going to tell you the impact of when Todd Pinkston (was it Pinkston?) hears Taylor's footsteps and looks the other way out of fear instead of focusing on the ball.

Metrics aren't going to tell you Sean Taylor's vision and awareness (and pure athletic ability) to run full speed, pick a ball up off a bounce and take off leading to the winning field goal in dramatic fashion.

True, there's plenty Taylor needs to improve on. But we're much better off with him on the field than without him.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

^^^ Very true. One of the first moments we could see what sean meant to us was when we played green bay his rookie season and he was to sit out due to his DUI charge. That game we got destroyed downfield relative to our other games that year. His absense leads to the team not working. He does so much that it hard to realize for some people unless he is off the field.

I still hurt from that stupid illegal motion call the ref made. F...ing idiot. The refs had it out for us that year and the year after too.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=SmootSmack;325320]Metrics aren't going to tell you the impact of Sean Taylor missing the Tampa game two years ago, allowing Chris Simms to won the middle of the field deep and resulting in over 30 points scored by the Bucs. And possibly costing us the division title in the long run.[/quote]

Who cares about things like heart, leadership, the ability to inspire fear in opposing teams, and a dozen other immeasurable qualities when metrics teach us that Taylor can't play safety, Betts is as good as Portis, and Brunell is a great quarterback?

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

I get sick of people always singling out db's who get beat a few times, especially safeties. The safety's job is to get there, not cover man to man. Of course they're going to bite on fakes or pursue the wrong area of the field sometimes. That doesn't make them poor in coverage. Even Roy Williams; yes coverage is not his strong point, but at least give him credit for making some big plays in coverage, e.g. he picked 1 against us last year at about the 2 yrd. line, which pretty much ended our chances to get in the game. He also took one back against philly in 05 to win a game.

I will agree w/the overall assessment of Taylor for last year though. He tried to make too many plays & ended up late on deep throws. He CAN cover though, he's just got to commit to that aspect of his game & accept the responsibility as the last man to beat on the field.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

Taylor had a bad year last year, just like the entire D. I don't think we needed an expert to tell us that.

I wonder what his metrics looked like in prior years though.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

What our defense needs are more guys like ST. He just flies around, to, and through the ball.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=Mattyk72;325356]Taylor had a bad year last year, just like the entire D. I don't think we needed an expert to tell us that.

I wonder what his metrics looked like in prior years though.[/quote]

Exactly what I was thinking. 2006 Sean Taylor was not the same Sean Taylor that we all saw in 2005. I also thought his play in the Pro Bowl (not just the hit on the kicker, but his overall play) suggested what he is capable of given a competent supporting cast.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

I think ST is gonna prove hes good in coverage this year.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

You could tell in the Minnesota game that his focus was all wrong last year. I distinctly remember at least one play where he chose the hit over an int and that is fundamentally wrong. An additional turnover in that game and we win.

I think that Williams is doing the right thing with Taylor this year. He has told the world that his job is to play center field and reel in balls. And Taylor seems to be on board with his weight loss.

As far as the Pro-bowl, there seems to be a lag. Taylor became an alternate off of the reputation of his first two years more than his performance last year. And I have said this before. No one can say a single word about Taylor after Roy Williams made it last year. He was pathetic absolutely pathetic last year in coverage.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=Mattyk72;325356]Taylor had a bad year last year, just like the entire D. I don't think we needed an expert to tell us that.

I wonder what his metrics looked like in prior years though.[/quote]I would think they were a lot better.

Its worrisome that he regressed in his third season...thats not suppossed to happen. Hopefully we can sit here a year from now and see what an abberation year 2006 was here for the guy.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

I feel he "regressed" (and I use that term lightly) last year because he felt he had to do everything while also covering for Arch. But I think he realized it is not all about the hitting and he lost some weight and gained some speed. I think the addition of Landry, Smoot, Fletcher, and a healthy Griffin should improve him greatly. I am expecting a 6+ interception season from taylor.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=SmootSmack;325320]Metrics aren't going to tell you the impact of Sean Taylor missing the Tampa game two years ago, allowing Chris Simms to own the middle of the field deep and resulting in over 30 points scored by the Bucs. And possibly costing us the division title in the long run.[/quote]Actually, I think Metrics WILL tell us this. And I'm guessing they would prove your point correct.

[QUOTE]Metrics aren't going to tell you the impact of when Todd Pinkston (was it Pinkston?) hears Taylor's footsteps and looks the other way out of fear instead of focusing on the ball.[/quote]Well, no. Todd Pinkston is no longer relevant in this league though, in no small part to this play.

[QUOTE]Metrics aren't going to tell you Sean Taylor's vision and awareness (and pure athletic ability) to run full speed, pick a ball up off a bounce and take off leading to the winning field goal in dramatic fashion.

True, there's plenty Taylor needs to improve on. But we're much better off with him on the field than without him.[/quote]I wouldn't disagree. But the thread points out that he's probably overrated based on the fact that he played in the pro bowl last year, and I don't think theres too many of us that would disagree with that.

All the metrics do is tell how how many yards per play an opponent got when he worked on Sean Taylor. In 2006, that was a lot. We're all free to draw our own conclusions, but I personally won't lay the blame for that at the feet of anyone but #21. He needs to step it up.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=Southpaw;325341]Who cares about things like heart, leadership, the ability to inspire fear in opposing teams, and a dozen other immeasurable qualities when metrics teach us that Taylor can't play safety, Betts is as good as Portis, and Brunell is a great quarterback?[/quote]Who cares about on field performance?

Me, thats who.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

Yeah...well here in America we don't use the metric system! No one says it's First and 914 centimeters.

USA! USA!

Seriously though, I'm sure you're well aware that there's a lot more to evaluate a player and his value that what a stat sheet says

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=SmootSmack;325439]Seriously though, I'm sure you're well aware that there's a lot more to evaluate a player and his value that what a stat sheet says[/quote]Of course. Thats the fun part!

Statistics are my starting point. Once I understand where the process begins, I can develop all sorts of crazy observations that may or may not be reality.

I just don't fly in the face of the evidence, I try to build on it. I realize I can come off condecening at times, but its frusterating to sit here and see two parties bicker over the irrelivant/simple issues. I by far prefer the complex football-related issues, but I feel that the mainstream fan will never even discover these issues because the current accepted method of player evaluation is so poor, and the sports media is more than okay with that.

For example, I'd love to debate whether or not we can expect ST to rebound based on the historical expectation of the position and his college and professional merits. Unfortuanately, theres a handful of people who don't even yet realize how poor his play was last year even after linking the article. Makes it hard to move on to the fun points when I have to argue the for granted ones.

Ah, whatever. All in a days work.

End rant.:soapbox:

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

I believe that Taylor made the Pro Bowl last year partly due to his play in the last 5 games the previous year. Many times, because of when the voting is one, it works out that a player gets rewarded a year late.

GTripp, I know that you are a big stats guy, but you do realize that stats can be manipulated, massaged, and misinterpreted, right? FYI, I'm an engineer and analyze ridiculous amounts of numeric data for a living and I can honestly say that the stats on Sean Taylor tell less about his worth than the things they don't collect stats on. An example could be how opposing offensive coordinaters have to limit thier game plan when he is on the field... which might make it easier of Fletcher to figure out the offensive formation, and in turn make the blitzing better, which will help pass coverage. It is kinda like when Dale Lindsey was keeping Arrington off the field based on him being out of position "x" number of times. Then when he gets to play, the running game solidifies and we win 5 straight to get to the playoffs.

I guess I'm just saying that stats are a great tool, and GTripp, you are really one of the best at using them and making sense of them, but be careful you don't fall into that rut I see some guys fall in where they can't see the forrest for the trees. Taylor's numbers suffered last year because he was had to try to cover for the LB's and CB's around him. The points are not irrelevent or simple.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

It just seems to me that the longer you watch sports the clearer it becomes that stats are overrated. In baseball fine but in football so much is unquantifiable.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=SC Skins Fan;325391]...I also thought his play in the Pro Bowl (not just the hit on the kicker, but his overall play) suggested what he is capable of given a competent supporting cast.[/quote]
I noticed that too, perhaps it's GW's overrated scheme that is holding him back, just as it did Walt Harris.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=Grim21Reaper;325409]...No one can say a single word about Taylor after Roy Williams made it last year. He was pathetic absolutely pathetic last year in coverage.[/quote]
I am continuosly saying this to Dallas fans, and they give me the "he gets picks" speach. Not realizing that Roy has great instincts and stays around the ball, but when the ball is in the air he chokes, I've never seen a player miss out on so many interceptions (besides Carlos Rogers) than Roy. His picks could have been more than doubled last year if he made better plays on the ball once thrown.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=GTripp0012;325296]Neither here nor there in a thread about pass coverage.

Still, quite entertaining.[/quote]

was just nothing the HIT.. and his power behind it... It said something!

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

Taylor was very good in coverage his first two seasons. He struggled last year at times, but that was more of a symptom of bad LBs in front of him and a secondary decimated by injuries around him. We asked him to do too much. But he played better late in the year. Remember that game saving tackle against Carolina??

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=GTripp0012;325287]From the article

[B][U]Sean Taylor[/U][/B]

Taylor made the Pro Bowl as an injury replacement, but the metrics make it clear he didn't earn the spot. He ranked 20th in both deep assist YPA and deep assist success percentage. He did even worse when in direct coverage, as his 10.7 YPA in those situations was the seventh worst in the NFL last year. He also gave up the second-most total yards of any coverage safety. Taylor did do a lot more to support the run last year than he did in years past, but even taking that into account, he really wasn't a Pro Bowl-level coverage safety last year.[/quote]

Yeah, well ....

The whole defense sucked last year. You could find stats about every individual player. I got the impression that ST was trying to do too much to cover for breakdowns elsewhere in the secondary.

So here's the question. Conventional wisdom says a good pass rush helps the pass coverage. Our coaches say better coverage will lead to better pass rushing. They drafted LaRon Landry and have a lot of cornerbacks in camp, but no big moves on the d-line. Gre-double-GG is moving to Cover-1 to exploit Taylors [I]pass covering[/I] abilities with Landry/Prioleau supporting the run & short passes.

Think it will work?

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=GTripp0012;325287]From the article

[B][U]Sean Taylor[/U][/B]

Taylor made the Pro Bowl as an injury replacement, but the metrics make it clear he didn't earn the spot. He ranked 20th in both deep assist YPA and deep assist success percentage. He did even worse when in direct coverage, as his 10.7 YPA in those situations was the seventh worst in the NFL last year. He also gave up the second-most total yards of any coverage safety. Taylor did do a lot more to support the run last year than he did in years past, but even taking that into account, he really wasn't a Pro Bowl-level coverage safety last year.[/quote]

and his DLine was one of the worst ever, his LB crew was trash and his 2ndary was garbage... lots of injuries and AA/wright/rodgers/etc on the field. not good times.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

Taylor one of the best hitting safties in football, but he has to be alot better in coverage. He killed us on his bad angles.

Re: Joyner: Reed, Taylor Overrated from Coverage Standpoint
 

[quote=RMSkins;325318]I guess Joyner has no clue who John Lynch is, the most overrated safety in the leauge besides Roy Williams. How in the world does Joyner get away with putting Ed Reed, and Sean Taylor in the overrated list?, and forgets all about John Lynch who is the most deserving I mean this guy steals a pro bowl spot every year from a way more deserving safety just because his name is John Lynch. I will admit Lynch was a above average safety with the Bucs, but since he has been with the Broncos he has been horrendous.[/quote] He is not a young man , but he has been the hardest hitting safety since R.Lott, and he does not get out of position very often . I would have bet the ranch , had he been our SS next to Taylor , we would have the best Safety tandem in the NFL the last few years . If Landry plays at a high level early , and we get a pass rush , Taylor will be a top 3 - 5 safety .