Another Vinny Special: Deangelo Hall

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

Maybe he's not "as good" (although I've never been a huge Rogers fan) I don't think the disparity is as wide as you portray in their coverage abilities. Opportunities are opportunities. Teams threw at Deion and Darrell Green until they gave them reasons not to in the way of interceptions. Ignoring the positive impact that interceptions can have is kinda silly. You're way smarter than that.

I don't have the statistical capabilities to show how many of Hall's INT led to points vs. the number of dropped Roger INT led to opponents points but obviously it would tilt towards Hall.

Well, I'm not ignoring the positive impact. I'm just suggesting that I have some reason to believe that it's a small impact.

I can make some quick assumptions based on expected points. But, while this is based on information from expected point studies, none of this is at all scientific.

It's generally believed that:

30 expected points = 1 win
average INT = 3 ex. points (more or less depending on field position)
20 yards of field position = 1 ex. point (this is not linear, every yard is worth more closer to either end zone)

Assuming the above, Hall's INTs are worth 8 points per year more than Rogers INTs. That's about 1/3 of a win. But we also have to determine what % of that difference is purely circumstantial. And I think that would be at least half, though, there's no way I could prove that since I'm guessing. If I'm right though, we're talking about 4 total points difference between Hall and a second Rogers.

In my opinion, when you compare that to the 30-35 expected points (90-100 plays compared to 3-5 interceptions) that Hall will allow on completions that Rogers won't in any given year, it just seems really, really insignificant. But I could be looking at this completely wrong, not to mention that my estimations are fuzzy.