Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

[Hog1]

I think it will be a......real good plan on J's part to be straight up and on board with SM....
He doesn't need any..competition for the HC position

[Schneed10]

It has already been alluded to here in this thread, but since run/pass ratio is one of the most poorly understood metrics in football and one of the most poorly-reported by the media, I think it has to be said very clearly:

Run/pass balance is not often the CAUSE of losing, it is most often a RESULT of losing.

If you come out in the first half and average 2.0 yards per carry behind an offensive line that isn't getting any movement, and your defense lets up two TDs, then you'd be insane to keep trying the exact same thing. Game situation and in-game adjustments may dictate that you have to throw more often.

Some might say well you shouldn't abandon the run because it wears down the defense and gives you an advantage in the 4th quarter. That's a luxury you can afford only if you're leading or within one score.

The way to bring run/pass ratio into balance isn't to call more running plays, it's to... run the ball better.

A more effective offensive line is what makes that possible. If we see the Redskins blocking effectively early in games and still get away from the run, then Jay should be fired. But I highly doubt he'll do that because while I don't think he's anything special as a coach, he's not an idiot. If our offensive line moves (including Bill Callahan) are effective, then we should see the run pass balance improve. That wouldn't be an indicator that Jay's playcalling won us any games.

I view our run/pass ratio this year to be an indicator of how effective our offensive line is. That's equally on McCloughan and Gruden - McCloughan to the extent he picked the players, and Gruden to the extent he and Callahan coached them.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Skinzman

I personally think defense has a say in those ratios. San fran and Seattle have defenses that dont need an offense to score 30 points to win a game (they also have/had top running backs. Seattle having the best in the business). The GB one does surprise me though. Maybe defenses just concentrate to much on Aaron Rodgers and they are smart enough to see it. Granted Lacy is starting to come into his own. If we show defensive improvement, I think that number drops. If our defense is still bad, that number stays high.

I agree that no doubt quality of defense (and special teams) plays a role in pass/run ratios. I would tend to agree that pass/run ratio are not the end all/be all indicator of HC/playcaller philosophy.

But, I would also argue that external factors like defense/special teams doesn't have an overriding impact on the playcaller/HC preference when it comes to pass/run ratios.

An easy example for me is Mike Shanahan. I was (don't stone me) a huge fan of Mike Shanahan's Denver WCO and during his tenure in Denver, through all manner or defenses and QBs and RBs his pass/run ratio was: 48 run / 52 pass. Mike Shanahan is a run oriented coach.

Another example, speaking of defense, is Jay Gruden/Cinci def. I posted Jay's/Cinci's pass/run ratio's early but i'll post them below with defense ranking.
2014 w/o Jay: 52% pass--def rank 12th

2013 w/Jay: 57% pass--def rank 5th
2012 w/Jay: 58% pass--def rank 8th
2011 w/Jay: 56% pass--def rank 9th

So, in 2014 the Bengals defense was ranked 12th, their worst in 4 seasons, but had a lower pass ratio then the 3 previous seasons with better defenses. They actually ran the ball more in 2014 even though their defense was the worse.

Or you could take a look at the Jets 25.1 PPG/24th ranked def vs Tampa 25.6 PPG/ 25th ranked def. Their defensive rankings are almost the same yet the there was a huge disparity in their the pass % the Jets were 52% pass the Bucs were 62% pass.

But an even more nuanced (although I don't 100% agree with their splits for 'expected' pass situations) comes from PFF. They have a great stat which I hope they repeat for this year on situational playcall expectations:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...-play-calling/

Agree or disagree it makes an interesting read for the football nerds. But they did there fancy stats thing for pass ratio for 2013 and even by their metrics Cinci/Jay came out pass focused not to an extreme level like Dallas but still pass focused. Now, Dallas is interesting because although they were extremely pass focused in 2013 there was a paradigm shift we all witnessed this year and it will be interesting to see where there values are this year. But even looking at the raw numbers Dallas went from 65% pass in 2013 to 50% pass in 2014. This shift in philosophy also had complementary effect on their time of possession and defense which was terrible in 2013 and with arguably even less talent in 2014(no ware/hatcher) the defense improved.

I say all this to say that playcaller/HC preference has a strong impact on pass/run ratio outcomes. I am not making a value judgement as to which style is better. Both pass heavy and run heavy can effective provided the offenses are efficient and score points. All I'm saying right now is that pass/run ratio outcomes are of course impacted situationally by defense and special teams but imo to deny the role playercaller/HC volition in the outcomes would be inaccurate assumption.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by 30gut

An easy example for me is Mike Shanahan. I was (don't stone me) a huge fan of Mike Shanahan's Denver WCO and during his tenure in Denver, through all manner or defenses and QBs and RBs his pass/run ratio was: 48 run / 52 pass. Mike Shanahan is a run oriented coach....

Audio « CBS DC

Intersting comments from Mike Shanahan on whether or not Alfred Morris has regressed last year:

Originally Posted by Mike Shanahan

"The question is how much do you believe in the running game? How many attempts are you going to have per game?....Its a mindset"

Mike goes on to talk about the...Redskins (SB era) ran the ball ~31 times a game and only had YPC 4.1 but their running game set-up big plays through their play-action game.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Mike Shanahan Opens Up About RGIII, Snyder, Read-Option « CBS DC

Shanahan expressed little surprise that Redskins general manager Scot McCloughan said he’d received little trade interest for Cousins this offseason. But that doesn’t change his opinion of the quarterback, Shanahan said – especially if he lands in a situation where a team puts a bigger emphasis on the running game.
“I think Kirk Cousins will be a big-time player for a lot of years in the National Football League,” Shanahan said.
He later added: “I’ve seen first hand what he can do and once he gets a team with a little balance he’ll have a very successful NFL career.”

[Bishop Hammer]

Shanahan's quarterback track, post Elway, leaves a lot to be desired. Plus he harbors a grudge against Griffin. That plays a big factor in his endorsement of Cousins.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Bishop Hammer

Shanahan's quarterback track, post Elway, leaves a lot to be desired. Plus he harbors a grudge against Griffin. That plays a big factor in his endorsement of Cousins.

You missed my point in the above posts. I couldn't care less about Mike's comments about Kirk.

The point I was trying to illustrate is Mike Shanahan (with a career run/pass ratio of ~50/50) basically questioning Jay's commitment to the running game and his lack of balance in play calling. Which was part of the question being addressed in the OP whether Jay's play calling married up to Scott's run focused philosophy.

[Skins4L]

Thats because his scheme was all screens and short dropoffs. We didnt stretch the field as much as we should have imo. A few times i literally called it like if we bomb it here its money and boom djax over the top. I just think we need to develop a rapport and well move the ball and score often with jays scheme its just such a jailbreak scheme literally.

[HailGreen28]

The title of this thread puzzles me. I assume McCloughan is drafting for our system, offense, defense, special teams. The schemes that our coaches run. If Gruden wants better power run blocking, McCloughan should draft accordingly, and vice versa if pass blocking. Even going "BPA", it's based on your system. If BPA overall is a small but fast 3-4 inside linebacker, but you run a 4-3, he's probably not BPA on your board.

As far as playcalling, that's up to coach. The only influence McCloughan has is how well the players he drafts can run the play, right?

I pray that McCloughan and Gruden are on the same page period. Otherwise we will continue to suck regardless of who "follows whose lead" in the front office. I hate that there is any doubt about this.

[sevier2]

Originally Posted by HailGreen28

The title of this thread puzzles me. I assume McCloughan is drafting for our system, offense, defense, special teams. The schemes that our coaches run. If Gruden wants better power run blocking, McCloughan should draft accordingly, and vice versa if pass blocking. Even going "BPA", it's based on your system. If BPA overall is a small but fast 3-4 inside linebacker, but you run a 4-3, he's probably not BPA on your board.

As far as playcalling, that's up to coach. The only influence McCloughan has is how well the players he drafts can run the play, right?

I pray that McCloughan and Gruden are on the same page period. Otherwise we will continue to suck regardless of who "follows whose lead" in the front office. I hate that there is any doubt about this.

I don't think there's a ton of doubt there. Sure, people will wonder and never truly know how close the two are, but from the outside looking in they seem to be working together. A lot of the same things being said by both of them etc.

I also recall one of McCloughan's first press conferences where he stressed the importance of working with coaches and getting players that fit not only the head coaches description but also the positional coaches descriptions.

We've seen a lot of big talk around Redskins park with no results, with McCloughan on board I feel we're closer than ever to getting some legitimate results to back all the off season chatter.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by HailGreen28

The title of this thread puzzles me. I assume McCloughan is drafting for our system, offense, defense, special teams. The schemes that our coaches run.

Agreed, never said different.

As far as playcalling, that's up to coach. The only influence McCloughan has is how well the players he drafts can run the play, right?

Certainly playcalling is up to the HC.

You could be absolutely right and McCloughan influence may not extend to offensive philospohy. I am guessing you've heard Scott's numerous comments about the style of football he wants? Scott's comments in relation to Jay's tendencies is the crux of my question in this discussion thread. Whether or not there will be a change in playcalling/gameplan.

And guessing by your statement above about the limits of Scott's influence you aren't expecting a paradigm shift in offensive philosophy to something more similar to that of Seattle or 49ers?

My only aim in this thread was to have a discussion about what next year's offensive philosophy(pass heavy/balanced/run heavy) might be.

[Hog1]

Originally Posted by HailGreen28

The title of this thread puzzles me. I assume McCloughan is drafting for our system, offense, defense, special teams. The schemes that our coaches run. If Gruden wants better power run blocking, McCloughan should draft accordingly, and vice versa if pass blocking. Even going "BPA", it's based on your system. If BPA overall is a small but fast 3-4 inside linebacker, but you run a 4-3, he's probably not BPA on your board.

As far as playcalling, that's up to coach. The only influence McCloughan has is how well the players he drafts can run the play, right?

I pray that McCloughan and Gruden are on the same page period. Otherwise we will continue to suck regardless of who "follows whose lead" in the front office. I hate that there is any doubt about this.

Do you really believe this could have been......overlooked?
And if Jay cannot make it happen, guess what the next competition is?

[NYCskinfan82]

IMO Jay wanted to show everyone my passing attack can win games. Granted we where behind early in a lot of games. This year our OLine dictates run, run, run, run and pas.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by NYCskinfan82

IMO Jay wanted to show everyone my passing attack can win games. Granted we where behind early in a lot of games. This year our OLine dictates run, run, run, run and pas.

Do you think Jay will adjust and become more run focused? Or maintain his pass focus? If you had to guess at pass% what you think 60%, 55%, under 55%?

[NYCskinfan82]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Do you think Jay will adjust and become more run focused? Or maintain his pass focus? If you had to guess at pass% what you think 60%, 55%, under 55%?

I want to say 50% run/pass but if the run, run, run, run and pass works. What are you thinking/guessing/predicting ?

[30gut]

Originally Posted by NYCskinfan82

I want to say 50% run/pass but if the run, run, run, run and pass works. What are you thinking/guessing/predicting ?

I think that Jay will be Jay; he's a WCO guy, former QB and he has some good concepts in his passing offense. So I doubt we'll see a Cowboys style paradigm shift from pass heavy to run heavy in one season. But with all this rhetoric and improvements to the run game (coaching and personnel) I would guess Jay will run the ball more moving from a 40% clip last year to a 44% clip.

It would be awesome if we were 50% run though.