Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Skinzman

I personally think defense has a say in those ratios. San fran and Seattle have defenses that dont need an offense to score 30 points to win a game (they also have/had top running backs. Seattle having the best in the business). The GB one does surprise me though. Maybe defenses just concentrate to much on Aaron Rodgers and they are smart enough to see it. Granted Lacy is starting to come into his own. If we show defensive improvement, I think that number drops. If our defense is still bad, that number stays high.

I agree that no doubt quality of defense (and special teams) plays a role in pass/run ratios. I would tend to agree that pass/run ratio are not the end all/be all indicator of HC/playcaller philosophy.

But, I would also argue that external factors like defense/special teams doesn't have an overriding impact on the playcaller/HC preference when it comes to pass/run ratios.

An easy example for me is Mike Shanahan. I was (don't stone me) a huge fan of Mike Shanahan's Denver WCO and during his tenure in Denver, through all manner or defenses and QBs and RBs his pass/run ratio was: 48 run / 52 pass. Mike Shanahan is a run oriented coach.

Another example, speaking of defense, is Jay Gruden/Cinci def. I posted Jay's/Cinci's pass/run ratio's early but i'll post them below with defense ranking.
2014 w/o Jay: 52% pass--def rank 12th

2013 w/Jay: 57% pass--def rank 5th
2012 w/Jay: 58% pass--def rank 8th
2011 w/Jay: 56% pass--def rank 9th

So, in 2014 the Bengals defense was ranked 12th, their worst in 4 seasons, but had a lower pass ratio then the 3 previous seasons with better defenses. They actually ran the ball more in 2014 even though their defense was the worse.

Or you could take a look at the Jets 25.1 PPG/24th ranked def vs Tampa 25.6 PPG/ 25th ranked def. Their defensive rankings are almost the same yet the there was a huge disparity in their the pass % the Jets were 52% pass the Bucs were 62% pass.

But an even more nuanced (although I don't 100% agree with their splits for 'expected' pass situations) comes from PFF. They have a great stat which I hope they repeat for this year on situational playcall expectations:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...-play-calling/

Agree or disagree it makes an interesting read for the football nerds. But they did there fancy stats thing for pass ratio for 2013 and even by their metrics Cinci/Jay came out pass focused not to an extreme level like Dallas but still pass focused. Now, Dallas is interesting because although they were extremely pass focused in 2013 there was a paradigm shift we all witnessed this year and it will be interesting to see where there values are this year. But even looking at the raw numbers Dallas went from 65% pass in 2013 to 50% pass in 2014. This shift in philosophy also had complementary effect on their time of possession and defense which was terrible in 2013 and with arguably even less talent in 2014(no ware/hatcher) the defense improved.

I say all this to say that playcaller/HC preference has a strong impact on pass/run ratio outcomes. I am not making a value judgement as to which style is better. Both pass heavy and run heavy can effective provided the offenses are efficient and score points. All I'm saying right now is that pass/run ratio outcomes are of course impacted situationally by defense and special teams but imo to deny the role playercaller/HC volition in the outcomes would be inaccurate assumption.