Will Jason Campbell return?

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

That's the problem with typical fans, they place all the blame on the QB. That ain't how football works. True, a Brady/Manning type can take over a game, but he still needs protection and receivers who can make plays. Manning struggled early last year when his OL struggled, Brady struggled in the SB against the Giants becuase his OL was getting handled.

Campbell struggled in the 2nd half last year because of poor OL play and some very good D's we faced, not becuase he just magically started to suck. He's gotten better every year and his QB rating shows that.

I can't wait until mid-season to call you guys out, of course just like early last season all the JC haters came out after the Giants game and then disappeared until he struggled later in the season.

Ain't that the truth. Kinda like Cowgirl fans who talk a lot of crap before the season, and then once we kick their ass, they disappear.

[Monksdown]

Don't misunderstand our angle. I think we all want him to do well. We just don't feel based on the numbers we have on him, and on our limited ability to analyze his skills, that he's going to take a huge step forward this year.

That is honestly how i feel. And i can back it up with 36 starts, just over 2 years of hard numbers. Granted, i probably put too much stock in cold hard touchdowns.

The argument that he's finally able to be in the same system 2 years in a row does hold some water. But i can't quantify that potential success with any hard numbers. You could bring up the 'Matt Hasselback developed at this pace argument'. But that argument sucks too, there are too many variables for an apple to apple comparison.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Monksdown

Don't misunderstand our angle. I think we all want him to do well. We just don't feel based on the numbers we have on him, and on our limited ability to analyze his skills, that he's going to take a huge step forward this year.

What if I told you that he already took that huge step forward last year (in my opinion), sometime between weeks 2-5, or possibly weeks 11-13, but that it was masked by the fact that every one else on offense was so terrible.

Then, as my logic follows, if the offense around Campbell is just a little less horriffic, he should pick up right where he left off, at a pro bowl level.

Here's a tip, if you have to point to a single (one) season as evidence that a player can't get it done, you're likely seeing too many other variables to know. You see his improvements as "super-slow", in the data, but the rest of us just see them as "there," and need more information to see if a breakout is coming/has already come.

[Monksdown]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

What if I told you that he already took that huge step forward last year (in my opinion), sometime between weeks 2-5, or possibly weeks 11-13, but that it was masked by the fact that every one else on offense was so terrible.

Then, as my logic follows, if the offense around Campbell is just a little less horriffic, he should pick up right where he left off, at a pro bowl level.

Here's a tip, if you have to point to a single (one) season as evidence that a player can't get it done, you're likely seeing too many other variables to know. You see his improvements as "super-slow", in the data, but the rest of us just see them as "there," and need more information to see if a breakout is coming/has already come.

My analysis earlier was based on 36 games started.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Monksdown

My analysis earlier was based on 36 games started.

But then you aren't seeing an upwards trend, or any trend at all. That would just be a weighted average of a QBs developmental portion of his career.

I hear people using the term make-or-break around Campbell this year. To an extent, I agree. Right now, he still carries the "young prospect" label, as the first four years of anyones career tend to be the developmental stage. But he's 27. So at the end of this year, he's going to turn 28, and he'll either have "franchise Quarterback", or "journeyman".

The statistics suggest that he'll be a franchise QB. But that's probability, not certainty. The question if he doesn't fulfill his promise this year is not whether we keep him or not, that's pretty irrelevant. It's why he was unable to live up to promise, i.e. what do we need to do to make sure the next surefire prospect does not fail. It could be a team thing, or it could be structural-organizational.

[Monksdown]

I don't think 'franchise' quarterbacks throw as few td's as Jason is trending towards continuing to do. He's clearly not a consistent scoring threat for us. That consistency is based on the limited data we've got. If he makes it as a franchise qb, it wont be with the 'skins.

[Sonny9TD]

Originally Posted by Monksdown

I don't think 'franchise' quarterbacks throw as few td's as Jason is trending towards continuing to do. He's clearly not a consistent scoring threat for us. That consistency is based on the limited data we've got. If he makes it as a franchise qb, it wont be with the 'skins.

You don't need my help but I'll take your side on this. Totally agree.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Monksdown

I don't think 'franchise' quarterbacks throw as few td's as Jason is trending towards continuing to do. He's clearly not a consistent scoring threat for us. That consistency is based on the limited data we've got. If he makes it as a franchise qb, it wont be with the 'skins.

Well, we also don't have any touchdown scorers on the offense that would make you think, why are their numbers suffering? Cooley had a 1 TD year last year, so if he doesn't rebound, I might get worried. But Moss was never a big TD guy, neither was ARE. The fact that the big scorer on this team is the RB explains why Campbell probably shouldn't ever be graded by his TD totals.

This is a different point if his INT rate rises to meet his TD rate. At a 1:1 TD/INT rate, Campbell is ineffective. But at 5:2 or 3:1, he's a very effective, borderline pro-bowler. That's what we should look for this year.

The pro bowl voters do tend to get caught up in the big TD numbers, which is why I think if the team can replace those 35+ TD seasons with wins, Campbell will get his dues.