Will Jason Campbell return?

[Monksdown]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

Yeah, but that is not careful statistical analysis. That is carefully looking at statistics and then drawing an unreasonable conclusion. You basically conclude that based upon his previous statistics it is impossible that he can throw for more than two extra touchdowns a year every year for the next five years. That is completely random and is not "statistical" analysis. That is saying, A=B therefore C=D. There is no correlation between throwing for 10 (in 7 starts), 12 (in 13 starts), and 13 (in 16 starts) touchdowns per season. Hell, if you wanted to really better your argument you would say that his touchdown/game ratio has decreased every year so by the time he is 33 he will be throwing for 0 touchdowns (which would fit with your argument because you would say he'll be out of the league). I'm not even saying Campbell is a great QB, I am just saying you are making your argument by 1) coming to a conclusion, 2) cherry picking statistics, 3) arbitrarily assigning meaning to those statistics so that they fit with your conclusion. That is not an empirical argument.

I disagree with you obviously on the validity of the statistics i've pulled. Anyone can "cherry pick" statistics and make them reveal something that may not be there. Yes, i did use the statistics i chose to use. On the other side of that coin, anyone can tear them down by continuing to break down the figures ad nauseum.

Bottom line. Little steps don't equal big steps. I want big steps.