Another Vinny Special: Deangelo Hall

[Paintrain]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Well, like I said, there's really no debate between them. You asserted that Hall was just as good of a cover guy as Rogers, but obviously that's not the case. I just gave you one number to support that, but theres 5-7 more I could dig through my records to find. It's not necessary though, we both know who the Giants were avoiding yesterday.

Where there's a lot more gray area is: how valuable are Hall's interceptions, given the fact that he's the target of most gameplan's by opponents over the last three seasons. If teams are trying to live off passes at Hall's receiver, regardless of who he is covering, there should be a reasonable expectations for INTs regardless of how adept the player is at creating oppertunities. And you'd expect a player like Hall to intercept more passes than a player like Rogers, talent aside.

But ~4.5 INTs/season is a lot more than ~1.7 INTs/season. The question is, how much more valuable given the context? And I don't have a really great mathmatical answer for this, but I suspect, given all the extra throws at a player like Hall, probably not very much. I'm open to other interpretations though.

Maybe he's not "as good" (although I've never been a huge Rogers fan) I don't think the disparity is as wide as you portray in their coverage abilities. Opportunities are opportunities. Teams threw at Deion and Darrell Green until they gave them reasons not to in the way of interceptions. Ignoring the positive impact that interceptions can have is kinda silly. You're way smarter than that.

I don't have the statistical capabilities to show how many of Hall's INT led to points vs. the number of dropped Roger INT led to opponents points but obviously it would tilt towards Hall.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

Maybe he's not "as good" (although I've never been a huge Rogers fan) I don't think the disparity is as wide as you portray in their coverage abilities. Opportunities are opportunities. Teams threw at Deion and Darrell Green until they gave them reasons not to in the way of interceptions. Ignoring the positive impact that interceptions can have is kinda silly. You're way smarter than that.

I don't have the statistical capabilities to show how many of Hall's INT led to points vs. the number of dropped Roger INT led to opponents points but obviously it would tilt towards Hall.

Well, I'm not ignoring the positive impact. I'm just suggesting that I have some reason to believe that it's a small impact.

I can make some quick assumptions based on expected points. But, while this is based on information from expected point studies, none of this is at all scientific.

It's generally believed that:

30 expected points = 1 win
average INT = 3 ex. points (more or less depending on field position)
20 yards of field position = 1 ex. point (this is not linear, every yard is worth more closer to either end zone)

Assuming the above, Hall's INTs are worth 8 points per year more than Rogers INTs. That's about 1/3 of a win. But we also have to determine what % of that difference is purely circumstantial. And I think that would be at least half, though, there's no way I could prove that since I'm guessing. If I'm right though, we're talking about 4 total points difference between Hall and a second Rogers.

In my opinion, when you compare that to the 30-35 expected points (90-100 plays compared to 3-5 interceptions) that Hall will allow on completions that Rogers won't in any given year, it just seems really, really insignificant. But I could be looking at this completely wrong, not to mention that my estimations are fuzzy.