The Mid Round QB fallacy

[GusFrerotte]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

Without picking sides in the Bradford/Clausen vs. Okung at #4 pick, it bugs me when I see people say to 'just pick up a QB in the mid rounds' like that's a recipe for success in the league.. Doing a little research (very little) it's pretty clear that it's not.. Of the playoff teams the past 5 years, the QB breakdown is (non first round QB in parenthesis):

2009, 7-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brees, Warner, Brady, Romo, Favre)
2008, 9-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Warner, T. Jackson, Delhomme)
2007, 5-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Favre, T. Collins, Brady, Garrard, Romo, Garcia, Hasselbeck)
2006, 7-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brady, Brees, Romo, Hasselbeck, T. Green)
2005, 6-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brady, Plummer, Brunell, Hasselbeck, Garcia, Delhomme)

So nearly 60% of the playoff QB over the past 5 years have been 1st round picks. The exceptions have been the greatest 6th round pick in league history (Brady) 4 undrafted FA (Romo, Delhomme, Garcia, Warner)-including perhaps one of the most unlikely stories of all time in Warner. Three second round picks (Brees, Favre & Jackson) and 5 late round picks who eventually became something after playing behind established QB for years (Garrard, T. Green, Collins, Brunell, Hasselbeck).

So unless we're hoping for another miracle (Brady, Warner, Romo, Delhomme) or a slightly undervalued gem (Favre, Brees) or are hoping to find an undiscovered star (Hasselbeck, etc) then 'picking up a QB in the mid rounds' is likely not going to yield us anything beyond mediocre football in the future.

My thing is there is a lot of QB talent in this year's draft. The QB's that are being hailed as future superstars all come from big time college programs stacked with talent facing marked inferior opponents most Staurday afternoons(Clausen is the exception IMHO). These guys had huge ass lines, and had top of the line talent to work with. What happens when they hit NFL parity central? The guys going in the mid rounds might just prove more resilent in making this transition to the NFL since most of them come from second tier Div 1-A schools that face competition that was either on par or even superior. Also, your own stats you just gave us have shown that you can indeed get some gems in the mid rounds. Might be a long shot bud, but I would take a shot at a healthy Dan Lefevour than an Okie with a bum shoulder that played on a totally stacked team in Norman. Besides your line of thinking also can apply to offensive linemen. Think Bradford is going to last long with the bums we have now? You give JC or Lefevour a stellar line and either one will make the pro bowl!!!!!!!!!