The Mid Round QB fallacy

[GTripp0012]

If the whole point is thinking we need a first round quarterback to compete....you know, just whoever, as long as they were highly touted in college and can produce: I'd like to introduce you to our current roster.

No one, myself included would be mad for taking the best quarterback in the draft at fourth overall. But it's HIGHLY probable that whoever the best quarterback in this draft class is will be around until the second, third, or maybe fourth round.

The problem is, as Paintrain laid it out, is that while someone is going to get a major steal on that quarterback, waiting until the middle rounds and then drafting some guy promises you absolutely nothing. While I think it's a virtual certainty that someone will get lucky in this draft, if there was a predictive measure that could project the difference between mid rounders (outside of eliminating the obvious characters, like Snead), they would start to rise towards the second or back end of the first round. I do not believe it's a crapshoot, but the predictive ability of any team at that level of the draft is questionable...no one's best quarterback is available at that point.

There's no way you can simply count on getting a QB in the middle rounds to be your franchise player eventually. You would take a QB first to be the back-up, and only to play if he performed above expectation or the starter got hurt.