The Mid Round QB fallacy

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Something I firmly believe is that, if you're looking for the best overall quarterback in THIS draft, taking Bradford OR Clausen is the least creative way to get a ticket at the QB Roulette table. It's the teams who have no options at quarterback who have the most to gain from making a high pick on these players.

The reason that these players are rated above the others are because of a familiarity of NFL style route tree, and the ability to throw it. These are the most conventional prospects in the entire draft, as in the coaches have the least work to do with these two. If you have just nothing at the position, like Oakland, or like Carolina, these are the teams who could benefit the most. These guys are essentially need fillers...but unlike the free agent class, they are young, and have the potential to be probowlers.

If they get to greatness, they will get there perfectly conventionally. These are not special players, they are like very other first round pick before them. Just make sure to put a team around them, and both are accurate enough to pay dividends. Kind of like Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Culpepper, etc. Invest in them, and you'll get something. Maybe not a championship player, but something else.

If you're looking for a championship QB, it's way cheaper and more creative to go the route of a mid rounder, and offer then a spot on the depth chart that most other teams wouldn't. I know the numbers do say that most teams who make it all the way to the super bowl do it with first round quarterbacks, but that's the route we're currently on. It's not creative. It's expensive. And within a standard deviation from the mean projection, you're making a lateral move (2/3 chance of lateral move, 1/6 chance of notable improvement, 1/6 chance of large decline).

But the thing that would really eat at me...it shows no desire to take any steps towards becoming a championship team. It's just more of the same. Progress would have to wait while we window dress. I'm patient, but not that patient.

Paralysis by over-analysis.

Please, no offense intended, but who cares about deviations and mean projections. We've got the 4th overall pick, it's not something we have very often, nor want to have very often. If Shanahan/Allen believe one or both is a franchise caliber QB, they damn well better get that guy at #4. If the franchise QB is gone, or they have neither rated as such, build the OL and get a QB later. It's pretty simple.

I'm a Clausen guy, he's franchise level IMO. Bradford, no. Money isn't an issue with an uncapped season. Will we have a top 5-10 pick next year, doubtful unless we're decimated by injury. So we won't have the chance to get a Locker or Luck in 2011.

EDIT: If the decision is not to go QB, I'm all for a trade down to pick up BPA at position of need (and we've got a few of those; T, G, C, QB, RB, LB, FS, and NT if we go to a base 3-4)

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

Paralysis by over-analysis.

Please, no offense intended, but who cares about deviations and mean projections. We've got the 4th overall pick, it's not something we have very often, nor want to have very often. If Shanahan/Allen believe one or both is a franchise caliber QB, they damn well better get that guy at #4. If the franchise QB is gone, or they have neither rated as such, build the OL and get a QB later. It's pretty simple.

I'm a Clausen guy, he's franchise level IMO. Bradford, no. Money isn't an issue with an uncapped season. Will we have a top 5-10 pick next year, doubtful unless we're decimated by injury. So we won't have the chance to get a Locker or Luck in 2011.

EDIT: If the decision is not to go QB, I'm all for a trade down to pick up either more BPA at position of need (and we've got a few of those; T, G, C, QB, RB, LB, FS, and NT if we go to a base 3-4)

That's what it all comes down to isn't it? That and their feeling about JC. I wonder if they've given any thought to draft and trade? Too soon for that I guess.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

Paralysis by over-analysis.

Please, no offense intended, but who cares about deviations and mean projections. We've got the 4th overall pick, it's not something we have very often, nor want to have very often. If Shanahan/Allen believe one or both is a franchise caliber QB, they damn well better get that guy at #4. If the franchise QB is gone, or they have neither rated as such, build the OL and get a QB later. It's pretty simple.

I'm a Clausen guy, he's franchise level IMO. Bradford, no. Money isn't an issue with an uncapped season. Will we have a top 5-10 pick next year, doubtful unless we're decimated by injury. So we won't have the chance to get a Locker or Luck in 2011.

EDIT: If the decision is not to go QB, I'm all for a trade down to pick up BPA at position of need (and we've got a few of those; T, G, C, QB, RB, LB, FS, and NT if we go to a base 3-4)

But what if they believe the current guy is a franchise guy AND that Clausen is also a franchise guy. Then what is the proper course of action if Clausen slips to No. 4?

And if we have the No. 4 pick in a year where the Quarterbacks are mid-round guys...tough crap, I guess. Go get something useful with the pick. You're probably right when you say we won't be picking top five again, but the NFL Draft appears to have slowed if not stopped producing elite NFL quarterbacks. I think we're in an age where you pretty much have to make one (from raw tools).

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

But what if they believe the current guy is a franchise guy AND that Clausen is also a franchise guy. Then what is the proper course of action if Clausen slips to No. 4?

And if we have the No. 4 pick in a year where the Quarterbacks are mid-round guys...tough crap, I guess. Go get something useful with the pick. You're probably right when you say we won't be picking top five again, but the NFL Draft appears to have slowed if not stopped producing elite NFL quarterbacks. I think we're in an age where you pretty much have to make one (from raw tools).

If the braintrust believes Campbell is a franchise guy they should have their heads examined.

That being said, if they feel he's a franchise guy, sign him to a long term deal and be done with it, then draft the LT. If they don't feel either Clausen/Bradford is a franchise guy, but rather mid-rounders, then you're absolutely right...tough crap, get something useful (LT).

I disagree about the draft producing elite QBs, we may have had a lull for a few years but I think Clausen, Luck, possibly Locker have the tools to be elite QBs. I think the prevalence of the spread offense in college has something to do with it too.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

If the braintrust believes Campbell is a franchise guy they should have their heads examined.

That being said, if they feel he's a franchise guy, sign him to a long term deal and be done with it, then draft the LT. If they don't feel either Clausen/Bradford is a franchise guy, but rather mid-rounders, then you're absolutely right...tough crap, get something useful (LT).

I disagree about the draft producing elite QBs, we may have had a lull for a few years but I think Clausen, Luck, possibly Locker have the tools to be elite QBs. I think the prevalence of the spread offense in college has something to do with it too.

I don't think anyone thinks that Campbell is a franchise QB, I mean he could prove us wrong, but so far he's just a serviceable QB that could allow us to focus on the offensive line in the first round, rather than a QB. I think my opinion of getting a first-round QB would be different if we had Collins at QB right now or some other old veteran.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

I don't think anyone thinks that Campbell is a franchise QB, I mean he could prove us wrong, but so far he's just a serviceable QB that could allow us to focus on the offensive line in the first round, rather than a QB. I think my opinion of getting a first-round QB would be different if we had Collins at QB right now or some other old veteran.

Then again, if everyone shared my definition of franchise QB (and there's no reason anyone else should, except for clarity), I think everyone would agree that Jason Campbell is a franchise QB.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

I disagree about the draft producing elite QBs, we may have had a lull for a few years but I think Clausen, Luck, possibly Locker have the tools to be elite QBs. I think the prevalence of the spread offense in college has something to do with it too.

I think the spread has a lot to do with it. There are hundreds of competent college QBs out there but NFL teams, on the whole, want to take these guys to the next level and make them do something completely foreign. That's going to eliminate a lot of potentially great players. And so there are like 10 colleges who, in any given year, might send a quarterback to the NFL draft who gets taken highly.

And because of the market conditions (spread quarterbacks undervalued, or not valued at all), guys are coming out earlier and earlier, which is of course, a negative indicator of potential. But it's worth a lot of cash, because the guys who are waiting around are getting picked apart as prospects.

And so the NFL draft isn't producing anymore Mannings, or Rivers', or Carson Palmers anymore...I think the polished, can't miss quarterback prospect is probably a thing of the past. Maybe once every three years, you'll get a Matt Ryan. Christian Ponder could be that guy next year, as they are incredibly similar. And I like Jacory Harris in a year or two.

But I think: if you're going to have to culture a successful environment anyway, why spend the top five pick on a quarterback? Why inflate the price of an asset beyond what it's actually worth--if you're the one going to be paying the bill anyway?