The Mid Round QB fallacy

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Something I firmly believe is that, if you're looking for the best overall quarterback in THIS draft, taking Bradford OR Clausen is the least creative way to get a ticket at the QB Roulette table. It's the teams who have no options at quarterback who have the most to gain from making a high pick on these players.

The reason that these players are rated above the others are because of a familiarity of NFL style route tree, and the ability to throw it. These are the most conventional prospects in the entire draft, as in the coaches have the least work to do with these two. If you have just nothing at the position, like Oakland, or like Carolina, these are the teams who could benefit the most. These guys are essentially need fillers...but unlike the free agent class, they are young, and have the potential to be probowlers.

If they get to greatness, they will get there perfectly conventionally. These are not special players, they are like very other first round pick before them. Just make sure to put a team around them, and both are accurate enough to pay dividends. Kind of like Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Culpepper, etc. Invest in them, and you'll get something. Maybe not a championship player, but something else.

If you're looking for a championship QB, it's way cheaper and more creative to go the route of a mid rounder, and offer then a spot on the depth chart that most other teams wouldn't. I know the numbers do say that most teams who make it all the way to the super bowl do it with first round quarterbacks, but that's the route we're currently on. It's not creative. It's expensive. And within a standard deviation from the mean projection, you're making a lateral move (2/3 chance of lateral move, 1/6 chance of notable improvement, 1/6 chance of large decline).

But the thing that would really eat at me...it shows no desire to take any steps towards becoming a championship team. It's just more of the same. Progress would have to wait while we window dress. I'm patient, but not that patient.

Paralysis by over-analysis.

Please, no offense intended, but who cares about deviations and mean projections. We've got the 4th overall pick, it's not something we have very often, nor want to have very often. If Shanahan/Allen believe one or both is a franchise caliber QB, they damn well better get that guy at #4. If the franchise QB is gone, or they have neither rated as such, build the OL and get a QB later. It's pretty simple.

I'm a Clausen guy, he's franchise level IMO. Bradford, no. Money isn't an issue with an uncapped season. Will we have a top 5-10 pick next year, doubtful unless we're decimated by injury. So we won't have the chance to get a Locker or Luck in 2011.

EDIT: If the decision is not to go QB, I'm all for a trade down to pick up BPA at position of need (and we've got a few of those; T, G, C, QB, RB, LB, FS, and NT if we go to a base 3-4)