Quote:
Originally Posted by tryfuhl
there IS an inflation of ranking though due to being a QB, teams need QBs.. there's only 1 of them on the field at any given time typically... so even if a guy is 2nd round talent someone WILL take him in the 1st regardless
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tryfuhl is correct. There is an inflation of QB talent in the draft that is specifically not counted for in my analysis. Campbell is probably a second round talent who went in the late first. We took him above value. Was it smart with Ramsey on the roster? Probably not, but I only reference the past for perspective, not to dwell on what should or should not have happened.
It's specifically because of this inflation that you need to make large jumps in position value to justify the cost of the pick. So if we're picking at four, and there's a legitimate number one overall type available (Manning, Rivers, and maybe Matt Ryan), then we're making a big enough jump as to where you could release or trade Campbell and not really kill your prospectus in the short term.
On average, there's a player of this caliber in the draft once every four to five years. The kind of guy you should take at the position without question, the kind of player who tops a draft board. This is no more or less frequent than any other position, so the opportunity cost is the same.
It's very safe to say that this is not the year that this player is available. I have a great projection for McCoy, but not the kind of projection that would make his choice at No. 4 justifiable. Only that I expect him to be better than Campbell.
03-18-2010, 05:46 PM
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