2010 NFL Off-Season Rumors and Reports (Week 3)

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

I'm starting to think there's less downside for the Skins to go ahead and draft Clausen, package Campbell et al to move up in the second to draft another tackle, rather than take a Okung or Williams with the first pick and mine for a quality prospect at QB in the later rounds.

I think there might be less room between the top 5-8 tackles than there is between, say, the top 5 quarterback prospects. After Clausen and Bradford are off the boards, a team would have to have done their homework to pin point who's the third best quarterback in the draft, if there is one.

so, basically youre saying that we should reach for clausen to save us from having to do our homework to identify a good QB in the later rounds?

Also, if Clausen doesn't have a high probability of being better than Jason Campbell, a QB who is already on the team, then why a QB at all?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

Also, if Clausen doesn't have a high probability of being better than Jason Campbell, a QB who is already on the team, then why a QB at all?

Essentially, this is the crux of all my first round arguments. We're not really concerned with whether or not he'll be better or worse than Campbell. We're concerned with will he be a TOP 5 NFL quarterback by 2012. Manning, Rivers, Brees, Brady, Clausen?

If the shoe fits, draft him. But three teams are already passing on that, if he's there.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

If the shoe fits, draft him. But three teams are already passing on that, if he's there.

27 Teams Passed on Marino. 32 on Brady. I'm not saying that message board types know more then scouts and GM's (God knows the wonderful trade scenarios we come out with provide undeniable proof that we are in fact inferior) but at the same time GM's and scouts constantly make mistakes. So just because Bradford is there at 4 doesn't mean that 3 teams were correct in passing him up. In fact could very well mean 3 teams were stupid in passing him up. Though in this case it's really more like 1 team since the Buc's and Lions already have made commitments to first round QB's.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

27 Teams Passed on Marino. 32 on Brady. I'm not saying that message board types know more then scouts and GM's (God knows the wonderful trade scenarios we come out with provide undeniable proof that we are in fact inferior) but at the same time GM's and scouts constantly make mistakes. So just because Bradford is there at 4 doesn't mean that 3 teams were correct in passing him up. In fact could very well mean 3 teams were stupid in passing him up. Though in this case it's really more like 1 team since the Buc's and Lions already have made commitments to first round QB's.

Right, I agree with you, first overall types have made it as far as pick 4 in the past (specifically, Rivers). Usually after that point, there's some development to be done.

In Bradford's case, his injury kind of makes it obvious that he doesn't hold the elitist "first overall" status that I've referred to in my recent posts (frame, in this case, is a tool). While that's not the end of the argument for, or against, drafting him highly, I think it's inevitable that the time he missed forces him into the Brees/Brady/Marino developmental category, and out of the Manning/Rivers/Ryan "all-american" category (I continue to feel uncomfortable putting Ryan here after a sub-par year, but the luster of his 08 season is still pretty shiny).

And if you're going to have to wait for elite status, in a best case scenario, what are the pros of taking that investment now? We don't know that Terrell Pryor isn't going to light up the NCAA for the next two seasons, or Jacory Harris, or Ryan Mallett. The only argument I can think of for taking Bradford this high when he's not an elite prospect is that you're afraid of losing that chance to develop him to someone else. But isn't the 4th overall pick + $30 million a ridiculous price to pay for the opportunity?

It's like the Daisuke deal with Boston. I'd imagine the market value of the 4th overall pick (if you could sell draft picks on the open market) is $25-$30 million.

[budw38]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

27 Teams Passed on Marino. 32 on Brady. I'm not saying that message board types know more then scouts and GM's (God knows the wonderful trade scenarios we come out with provide undeniable proof that we are in fact inferior) but at the same time GM's and scouts constantly make mistakes. So just because Bradford is there at 4 doesn't mean that 3 teams were correct in passing him up. In fact could very well mean 3 teams were stupid in passing him up. Though in this case it's really more like 1 team since the Buc's and Lions already have made commitments to first round QB's.

Hard to imagine that Marino and D. Green were the last two players picked in rd 1 ..... 2 HOF's !

[ChickenMonkey]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Essentially, this is the crux of all my first round arguments. We're not really concerned with whether or not he'll be better or worse than Campbell. We're concerned with will he be a TOP 5 NFL quarterback by 2012. Manning, Rivers, Brees, Brady, Clausen?

If the shoe fits, draft him. But three teams are already passing on that, if he's there.

It hard to make a case that Clausen isnt going to be a very good QB, hes got all the intagables, but his attitude and skills remind me of Jay Cutler.
Out of the top 5 teams in the draft only 2 need a QB, so if hes as good as some people think hes gotta go between 1 & 5.....The skins are a 4-12 team so why not pull the trigger...roll the dice...

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by ChickenMonkey

It hard to make a case that Clausen isnt going to be a very good QB, hes got all the intagables, but his attitude and skills remind me of Jay Cutler.
Out of the top 5 teams in the draft only 2 need a QB, so if hes as good as some people think hes gotta go between 1 & 5.....The skins are a 4-12 team so why not pull the trigger...roll the dice...

If you're asking me why a 4-12 team shouldn't roll the dice high in the draft on some guy, it's because I prefer playing darts--while intoxicated--with the lights out. Personal preference, really.

If your projection for him is Cutler level, I think the reasons why he'd be a reach at no. 4 would be self-evident, but that's me.

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

so, basically youre saying that we should reach for clausen to save us from having to do our homework to identify a good QB in the later rounds?

Also, if Clausen doesn't have a high probability of being better than Jason Campbell, a QB who is already on the team, then why a QB at all?

if you can get the better QB, take him

I'm not saying Clausen's the guy but do you want a great QB or a great QB for being picked in the 4th round?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by tryfuhl

I'm not saying Clausen's the guy but do you want a great QB or a great QB for being picked in the 4th round?

I believe the correct answer is yes.