Vox.com: How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.

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I think people are misinterpreting what DeCosta meant when he said the draft is a luck-driven process. Sometimes, it makes a lot of sense to take a big personnel risk and try to hit on a once in a generation player if you believe you can. But that's where the luck element comes in: way more often than not, you're just going to beat yourself.

If Griffin turns out to be the best quarterback in the history of the franchise, no one is going to care how much of the Rams roster was built through that trade. It won't matter. But -- and this is coming from someone who thought Griffin was one of the five best players in the 2012 draft coming from Baylor -- the odds aren't ever in your favor. And the teams that best understand this aren't picking in the top ten.