With the 5th pick in the draft the Washington Redskins select...

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by 30gut

I've always considered 'safer' as a throw away claim when a draftnik likes a prospect.

My view of the draft is the best that can be achieved is the proper evaluation of players based on production and skillset then ranked against the other prospects based on their production and skillset.

To me all the prediction stuff is bunk, people are unpredictable.

Evaluate. Rank. Decide.

Then...cheer or cry but always hope.

Well, that's my point on Cooper - "based on [his] production and skillset ... ranked against the other prospects based on their production and skillset" Cooper is in a different tier of talent than the OLB's available. You can quantify it however you want - safe pick, high floor, higher ranked, etc. - bottom line is some guys "production and skillset" are clearly superior to others. The general consensus is that Cooper and Williams are the highest ranked non-QB's and that, "based on [their] production and skillset," all the OLB's are flawed in one way or another.

The consistent report on Cooper's "production and skillset" is that, when scouts watch his college tape, he demonstrates the skills of a polished three year pro with no identifiable weaknesses and his production has been excellent.

Originally Posted by 30gut

Then...cheer or cry but always hope.

Absolutely. As I have said, in Scot I trust. He's the man with the plan and has been scouting these guys all year for his own consultant's business. My faith in him at this particular point is pretty much at the "blinded by burgundy and gold" level.

I think Cooper is a solid pick and to bypass him only b/c he does not fit an immediate need is short sighted. McC, however, makes the big bucks for good reason and, if he thinks Fowler (Beasley/Ray/Gregory/??) is the man ... I am all good with that.

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by KI Skins Fan

You're beating that Cooper drum so hard it's about to make my ears bleed. There is absolutely no guarantee that he will become a better NFL player than the other players you named. In the end, drafting is still a SWAG.

Wasn't J.J. Watt drafted 11th, or something like that? Ten NFL GM's who are paid to draft the right player in the 1st Round passed on him because they thought they were drafting players who would be better than him in the NFL. They were wrong.

Of course it's all a crapshoot. All the more reason to pick the guy you believe to be the best available player. Sure, there are no guarantees but that doesn't mean you ignore reality either. If McC has Fowler ranked higher than or in the same tier as Cooper - great. A clear top tier guy in an area of need - no brainer.

My only point with Cooper is that every evaluation I have seen on him says there are no obvious flaws in his game, that he has terrific measurable, that his college production was excellent, he's a great character guy, and that his comparables in the NFL are all pro-bowl caliber players (Tory Holt and AJ Green are the names most often mentioned). Given those factors, you shouldn't bypass him - b/c he doesn't fill an area of immediate need - to select players who do not have those factors working for them and, thus, are not in his talent tier. None of the top four OLB's have all those factors working in their favor and each has a pretty glaring hole (Fowler-production, Ray/Beasley - measurables, Gregory - character).

As to JJ Watt. Sure - he was the 11th picked. Have you looked at who else was picked in the top 10 that year? Here they are (in order):

Cam Newton (Offensive Rookie of the year, 2 pro bowls)
Von Miller (3 x pro bowl, 3 x all pro)
Marcell Dareus (2 x pro bowl, 1 x all pro)
A.J. Green (4 x pro bowl, 1 x all pro)
Patrick Peterson (4 x pro bowl, 2 x all pro)
Julio Jones (2 x pro bowl)
Aldon Smith (1 x pro bowl, 1 x all pro)
Jake Locker
Tyron Smith (2 x pro bowl, 2 x all pro)
Blaine Gabbert

Other than Locker & Gabbert, that is not a shoddy bunch - pro bowlers (and all pros) all through the list. Unlike this year, it was a deep draft all through the top 10 BUT the two teams (Tenn & Jax) that bypassed Watt and drafted for need got burned. I imagine everybody else on that list is pretty pleased with their pick (okay, maybe SF would like to switch it out).

[EDIT: added pro bowl/all pro awards. Yes, JJ Watt has out performed them all to date (3 PB, 3 AP, 2 x Def. Player of the year; MVP Runner-up 2014). At the same time, if we get someone the equivalent to any of the other position players by going BPA regardless of immediate need, I will be very happy and not complain that someone else struck gold by picking this year's JJ Watt.]

As I said, if you forego a guy you believe to be the better talent because he does not fill an immediate need, than you are consciously choosing players of lesser talent and that just is not a good plan for a long term build.

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by DYoungJelly

I can't find it quickly but I'm fairly certain I heard McLovin talking about how he gauges the strength of a player in one of his earlier interviews after being named the GM.

He looks at how they perform against other players on film; who gets pushed around versus who does the pushing around.

... and, again, from the film I have seen (which isn't a lot admittedly), Fowler seems to get pushed around a lot. Maybe I am just watching the wrong film.

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

... and, again, from the film I have seen (which isn't a lot admittedly), Fowler seems to get pushed around a lot. Maybe I am just watching the wrong film.

He did say himself that La'el Collins manhandled him when they played

[TheMalcolmConnection]

La'el has got our next RT written all over him. That's only in case of trade back, but if we do, that's who I want.

[JoeRedskin]

Scot McC on Scot McC:

“Everybody says, ‘Well you need this, this, this and this,’ which I understand,” he said. “You know, a lot of times in pro free agency, you can address those needs a little bit, but I learned from Ron Wolf early on, I learned from Ted Thompson early on, I learned from John Schneider, you can never have enough good football players on your team. If you keep adding that, you’re going to have your couple of two, three superstars that are going come out and become stars.”

McCloughan's mentor 'adamant' about not drafting for need | Comcast SportsNet Washington

[FRPLG]

My feeling is that if we come up and the BPA is a guy that clearly isn't a need...like WR in my opinion...then we aggressively pursue a trade-back. Get value for our pick equivalent to picking said BPA. If we can't get an acceptable trade-back then roll BPA and know that rolling BPA in the long run should give you a stud team.

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by FRPLG

My feeling is that if we come up and the BPA is a guy that clearly isn't a need...like WR in my opinion...then we aggressively pursue a trade-back. Get value for our pick equivalent to picking said BPA. If we can't get an acceptable trade-back then roll BPA and know that rolling BPA in the long run should give you a stud team.

Agree 100%.

[KI Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

Agree 100%.

Now you're talking out of both sides of your mouth. If your boy is truly a Top 5 prospect and probably the BPA at #5, don't you want SM to draft him in accordance with your draft philosophy? If he trades down because WR isn't a position of need then he is essentially drafting for need when he picks the OT. N'est ce pas?

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by KI Skins Fan

Now you're talking out of both sides of your mouth. If your boy is truly a Top 5 prospect and probably the BPA at #5, don't you want SM to draft him in accordance with your draft philosophy? If he trades down because WR isn't a position of need then he is essentially drafting for need when he picks the OT. N'est ce pas?

Nope, not even close. If we are stuck at 5 (which, given the thread's title, was my assumption), we pick BPA - which to will likely be Cooper, if it's Williams or Williams/Cooper, pick Williams b/c he is fills the more immediate need.

If (1) Williams is gone, and (2) someone gives us "value for our pick equivalent to picking" Cooper, then a trade is just as good as a BPA pick because we don't have an immediate need at WR. At the same time, you don't take just any trade out of the spot simply b/c your not sold on the guys at your immediate need position.

It's all very subjective but - very simply - don't trade out of a high value spot just to make a trade and, if you can't make the trade you want, don't pick a lesser value guy when you think a better player is still on the board.

BPA or what you judge the BPA's value to be. Always. Every day.

[JoeRedskin]

... and to be clear (which I think I already have been), Cooper is not "my boy." I am not pulling for them to draft him. From everything I have read, and for all the reasons I have said in my various posts, however, he seems to me to be the likely, logical BPA choice at 5 under a "no trade down" scenario.

I have only "beaten his drum" b/c so many seem to think that, even if he is the clear BPA at the position we should not pick him simply b/c he doesn't satisfy an immediate need. I think that is a dumb-ass, short-sighted reason for a team passing on a player that they believe to be the most talented guy on the board. [Again, not saying that Scot McC believes that b/c I have no idea who he has rated as what. I am only arguing the underlying principle.]

If you think Fowler or someone else, based on "production and skill set" - or whatever else you want to use to evaluate talent, is the talent level equivalent of Cooper, fine. To me, that's a perfectly good reason for going with someone other than Cooper. I just have yet to hear anyone make a strong case for Fowler over Cooper based on talent only. Schneed's analysis at least made some rational sense but, despite his measurables, Fowler's actual on-field production doesn't seem to match up.

Like I said, the actual tape I saw of Fowler seemed to show him getting pushed around a lot - despite his size and strength. To me, that's a problem. If in actual game situations, he can't consistently dominate against college players given his advantage in measurables, that does not bode well when he has to take his game to the pro level.

[SirLK26]

Why all the talk of Fowler? Beasley is the best edge rusher in this class. His run defense is a big weakness, but we have Murphy to rotate in on rushing downs while Beasley develops. Von Miller is close to the same height and weight, so Beasley's size won't stop him from becoming a good run defender. Does he have talent to develop in that area? I don't know, but even if he doesn't, I would rather have a great pass rusher and poor-to-mediocre run defender in Beasley than a great receiver in Cooper or White.

Let me ask this to emphasize the value of pass rushers versus receivers: how many receivers in the league would you be willing to trade Kerrigan for?

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by SirLK26

Why all the talk of Fowler? Beasley is the best edge rusher in this class. His run defense is a big weakness, but we have Murphy to rotate in on rushing downs while Beasley develops. Von Miller is close to the same height and weight, so Beasley's size won't stop him from becoming a good run defender. Does he have talent to develop in that area? I don't know, but even if he doesn't, I would rather have a great pass rusher and poor-to-mediocre run defender in Beasley than a great receiver in Cooper or White.

Let me ask this to emphasize the value of pass rushers versus receivers: how many receivers in the league would you be willing to trade Kerrigan for?

To answer your question, 10 at least.

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by SirLK26

Why all the talk of Fowler? Beasley is the best edge rusher in this class. His run defense is a big weakness, but we have Murphy to rotate in on rushing downs while Beasley develops. Von Miller is close to the same height and weight, so Beasley's size won't stop him from becoming a good run defender. Does he have talent to develop in that area? I don't know, but even if he doesn't, I would rather have a great pass rusher and poor-to-mediocre run defender in Beasley than a great receiver in Cooper or White.

Let me ask this to emphasize the value of pass rushers versus receivers: how many receivers in the league would you be willing to trade Kerrigan for?

Also, I would rather have a great WR than a LB who can be run on at will

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

Nope, not even close. If we are stuck at 5 (which, given the thread's title, was my assumption), we pick BPA - which to will likely be Cooper, if it's Williams or Williams/Cooper, pick Williams b/c he is fills the more immediate need.

If (1) Williams is gone, and (2) someone gives us "value for our pick equivalent to picking" Cooper, then a trade is just as good as a BPA pick because we don't have an immediate need at WR. At the same time, you don't take just any trade out of the spot simply b/c your not sold on the guys at your immediate need position.

It's all very subjective but - very simply - don't trade out of a high value spot just to make a trade and, if you can't make the trade you want, don't pick a lesser value guy when you think a better player is still on the board.

BPA or what you judge the BPA's value to be. Always. Every day.

Agree 100%