The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0

[Macro]

The staging for this negotiation is, of course, going to be at the Combine between March 2nd and March 5th, where virtually all free agent deals and/or trades are brokered prior to the new league year (March 14th).

The Combine will be the summit because, of course, the availability of all front offices being there together, likewise Mike McCartney also being there to broker a long term contract for Cousins.

The LTC exists in of itself and it doesn't change which organization that Cousins prefers as his "#1," nor does it change the perimeters of the contract that they (Cousins/McCartney) would be looking for whether as an unrestricted FA or as an owned commodity under the Tag for a trade.

It might be presumptuous of me for saying this, but, everyone knows that the connection to Denver is real and the Shanny aspect to it, via Elway, is also clearly a motivating factor. Not to mention that Denver has a much more favorable selling position of its Front Office to Cousins, by way of their not too distant history of being in two SuperBowls, which neither of the other two major players (Browns & Jets) would be able to sell themselves.

The contract will be the same regardless if written for free agency, or written for a tag and trade. The only thing that would be different would the guaranteed dollars in year one. Obviously, because of the Tag being fully guaranteed. But in general either contract will between (ballpark) 26/27 million AAV, with 90 million guaranteed (give or take) over the life.

That's an important point, I tend to think.


Most of the retorts I've read after that point is made is something like: "why would Cousins even negotiate at all?"

Well, you're asking why Cousins would want to negotiate with an organization he already likes, wants to be with, in Denver? Sure he would. That's his "#1" (I'm presuming). Are you asking why Cousins would be interested in 90 million dollars guaranteed? Well, of course he would.

90 million dollars guaranteed over a 5 year deal is better than 34 million, or 28 million, guaranteed on a one year deal. Simple. Which ultimately satisfies the "security" aspect he has wanted and that which he has said is one of two main things he wants in any deal, while simultaneously giving him "his choice" of team (the other desire he has stated), which he spelled out during his fireside chat with the local radio guys ... (Grant & Danny, I think).


So, naturally, whenever referencing the negotiation here after, it's referring to Indianapolis, between March 2nd and 5th. And between the major parties, namely Bruce/Dan and Elway/Denver and Cousins/McCartney.


And of course, the deal, as I've run through it, will be presented under the attempt to have it agreed upon in principal there before the weekend is over, prior to the new league year, with compliance of the deal in principal signed by all parties to a non-disclosure and/or affidavit, and ultimately the timeline being, roughly, tagged prior to the March 6th deadline, the tag signed at an agreed-to date prior to the new league year, like March 9th (for example), and the trade initiating on the first day of the new league year of March 14th at 4pm.

So, clearly, the deal will start under the premise, being pitched as under the Franchise tag. That's how it will be presented to Elway/Broncos and Cousins/McCartney.

Why? Because, as you know, the Franchise tag for the 3rd installment of the FT makes it the exclusive version, as per the rules of the CBA and by using the FT, it therefore eliminates the Transition tag loophole of Cousins/McCartney using the offer sheet tactic.

That tactic being one of signing an offer sheet which if the Redskins tried to match, solely for the purpose of immediately flipping Cousins back in a trade to the team which wrote the offer sheet, would mean that they (Redskins) would have to match the signing bonus in full, which if trading Cousins on that contract, would then accelerate the signing bonus in full onto the 2018 year cap.

So, of course, the offer sheet tactic has to be eliminated. That's why it has to be pitched as the Franchise tag, at least initially.

The FT also ensures compliance from Cousins, who, of course will sign the tag "immediately," for lack of a better word. I know here will be a great spot for someone to jump in and argue that point above, I've already read those arguments. The answer to it is simply, that not signing the tag would be self defeating for Cousins and ultimately harm his earnings and his market if he willfully tried to keep himself in limbo off the market rather than agree to the resolution. I can get into all of those reasons later.


But, to wrap this introductory part up, I believe in the end, the Transition tag will ultimately be used, only as a sweetheart deal to sweeten the trade between Bruce and Elway, while giving Cousins exactly what he wants simultaneously.

The sweetheart aspect relates to the cost differential between the FT and TT, that of 34.47 versus 28.73. I believe before all is said and done, that once Bruce walks both Elway and Cousins/McCartney through the parameters, he'll then throw out the idea of doing it on the transition tag, thus lessening the year-one amount that Elway would have to pay.

And in kind-of a genius stroke for Bruce (I know ...) it will actually enlist Elway to become the agent to drive the notion home that McCartney should comply to the idea of signing the TT rather than exercise their right to solicit offer sheets.

I can definitely get into more detail on that if need be.

So, in the macro, Cousins tagged, and traded to Denver for a 3rd round pick in 2018 and Aqib Talib. Of course Elway and the Broncos will have already negotiated a long term contract extension upon the one year Tag tender and thus will have offered Cousins, (ballpark) a 5 year deal between 26/27 AAV with 90 million guaranteed (give or take).

Elway seeing that the asking price for Cousins of a 3rd round pick is a pittance to what he would calculate for an established and competent QB, already NFL proven. Likewise, the Talib thing would be addition by subtraction for Denver, but it would be important for Bruce for optics purposes.

The basic timetable as I see it being that it is negotiated (the LTC between Cousins and Denver, the remuneration also) between March 2nd and March 5th. The tag being applied March 5th, one day before the tag deadline. Then a predetermined date for Cousins to sign the Tag, March 9th, for example. Leading to the actual trade itself on March 14th.