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#3 | |
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Living Legend
Join Date: Aug 2008
Age: 58
Posts: 21,744
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Re: Midterm Election Game day Thread
Quote:
The blue wave will mostly be the governor races. I will find it interesting to see if the polling uncovered the reluctant Trump voter or if there still were a large number of inaccurate polls based on reluctance of respondents to be counted. I think where you see large undecided numbers those races will swing toward Trump voters. Where polls are 50 49 or very few undecided, I think you will see Dems win. I also think that the Dem numbers are likely very accurate on polls, as their base is not only motivated but very outspoken toward pollsters. Conversely a significant portion of the Rep base has the basic distrust of polls and pollsters. If there is even a 4% "hidden" poll error, a lot of the tossups go quickly to Republicans. On this same side, I think the exit polls will skew the same way, as liberals will wear their votes on their sleeves, and many conservatives will withhold comment. |
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