When is Enough ,Enough?

[BaltimoreSkins]

Originally Posted by Buffalo Bob

I will take a wild guess that your definition of accurate is different than most people's. Your average Joe does not consider the weatherman to even be accurate 50% of the time. Since you admit your science is not exact why do most "scientists" constantly belittle people who question them?

I am pretty sure the only 80-90% accurate weatherman works in the lower elevation areas of Southern California where the weather rarely makes any measurable changes from day to day. I know how wildly inaccurate the weatherman is here as I am constantly duped into using weather forecasts to plain my work schedule if I am not that busy. I work in an uninsulated shop and my HVAC system in winter is portable heaters and in summer I just use fans.

Since even in a 1,000 square foot shop heating costs up to $5 an hour if I see warmer days forecast a day or so out if I am not busy I take a day off. Even 5-10 degrees warmer makes a big difference in how many heaters I have to fire up. Cold weather seems to last longer than predicted in winter 90% of the time.

That is what you have been doing this entire time so why stop now?

First of it is not [B]my[B]science but just science

You are probably right the average joe's perception of meteorologists does not match reality. There are thousands of peer reviewed studies that show are perceptions of the world both naturally and societal do not match reality. Look them up or if you prefer I will gather them for you.

I am using the textbook definition of accuracy in meteorology which is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit.

Based on how accurate you require weather conditions for proper mechanical function I can see why you have frustration when reports are off.

In regards to precipitation when you see 70% chance of precipitation that doesn't mean you will get rain rather 7 out of every 10 days with the exact same conditions will produce precipitation.

Mountains do add a degree of challenge due to micro-climates and other variables that are difficult to account for.

Based on your residence and the two major cities near your home here are the accuracy of different meteorology outlets for Richmond and Charlottesville

https://www.forecastadvisor.com/deta...ichmond/23250/

https://www.forecastadvisor.com/deta...esville/22903/

and Ashland

https://www.forecastadvisor.com/deta...cksburg/22401/

Those forecasts are a bit below the 90% threshold but well above the 50% threshold with the exception of Persistence. I could not find any data from your local meteorologists but they tend to be very reliable more than the national meteorologists because they have a better understand of a regions micro climates.

In terms of your accusation of scientists belittling people that question them. I have no clue what you are talking about. I also am not sure by what you mean when you type "scientists" Science is based on skepticism. If you have ever been in a peer review it is down right brutal the questioning that occurs. My guess is that the "scientist" you are speaking of keeps providing the data and the person questioning them does not have any scientific data just anecdotes or beliefs. I see that a lot when representatives and senators question scientists.