Quote:
Originally Posted by RiggoRules
I couldn't agree more that Heath Shuler is a great example that draft order doesn't matter (I'd also like to add Desmond Howard). Of course, no discussion of this topic is complete without the words Ryan Leaf.
Conversely, one thing that is different in this FA signing season from other Skins spending sprees is that every major signing (sorry, a blocking TE isn't) is for someone who is entering their FIRST FA year. We are going after guys entering their prime instead of exiting it (ala B. Smith, D. Sanders, the list goes on etc.).
That said, I'd like to play devil's advocate here against the conventional wisdom that championship teams are built through the draft and make a radical suggestion:
You get better value in FA and trades than you do from a first round pick -- especially at the QB position (assuming the FA is entering his prime).
Over the next three years, which QBs are more likely to have better success? The combination of Brees and Culpepper or the combination of Leinhart or Young?
Chances are, at least one of the top 2 QBs drafted are going to flame out. With Brees and Culpepper, you have some injury worries, but you pretty much know what you have and the probabilities say they will have more success at QB.
You used the example of Taylor vs. Arch. What percentage chance is there that Taylor is convicted? That is actually the percentage chance that Taylor will prove to be the most expensive, not the cheapest of the two safeties.
Look at QB. What are the odds that Campbell is the real deal? Is it 1 in 5, 1 in 4, 1 in 3? Take that number and multiply his salary by that. He got paid for doing nothing last year, so factor that in. Is he really a good dollar value?
All that being said, I am playing devil's advocate here. I don't hate the draft and I actually do think the draft has to be a piece of building a championship team. But what I am trying to do is to throw a little cold water on the conventional wisdom.
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rogers and taylor are much cheaper than arch and springs... at QB or RB I wouldn't draft them high unless i had to. Good RBs are available in the 2nd round (portis). QB, WR, and DE tend to have the worst chances of working out. bust DEs tend to still be okay or provide depth when they don't live up to the hype, whereas the QBs and WRs end up being completely worthless a lot of times.
I agree that throwing money in the form of LONG term contracts at young guys is a good idea. the problem with older guys (30+) is you end up paying for the production of their best years which they can't possibly replicate. With young guys (lloyd/moss) you pay slightly more than what their past production is worth to lock them in long term (which is really a hedged bet that they're going to outplay their contract in a big way, and give you great production for the dollar).