In a Perfect World: A Look Back at the 'Skins Major Offseason Moves

[Hogskin]

Originally Posted by Ramseyfan

I must respectfully take issue with the claim that 75%-80% of draftees do not live up to their hype. For player who does not meet expectations, you’ve got one who exceeds them. I would say that most early round picks pan out. Jessie Armstead, Rich Gannon, Brad Johnson, Steve Smith, Laveranues Coles, Stephen Davis, Jeremiah Trotter, Rock Cartwright, Patrick Ramsey, and Darnerian McCants are just a few examples of Redskins (from various rounds) who I think exceeded expectations (if you consider where they were drafted and how they turned out).

You’ve got to draft well or you just can’t be a successful franchise for more than one or two years. I’m a firm believer in gambling on the draft. Also, don’t free agents represent a gamble? Dan Wilkinson, Dana Stubblefield, Marco Coleman, Bruce Smith, Jeremiah Trotter are just a few examples of huge free agent letdowns.

WOW!!!! This one is WAY out there. Go through any season since the NFL started, and list 50% of the drafted players that YOU think lived up to their billing. You will have a tough time getting to 20%!!!

Now for the list of Redskins that you reeled off that exceeded expectations LOL. They were drafted over the past 15+ years, and most were not even DRAFTED by the Redskins. Take a look at THIS much longer list of ONLY REDSKIN draftees from the SIX (not 15) years ending 2002 that did NOT perform: Greg Jones, Jamel Williams, Keith Thibodeeaux, Twan Russell, Brad Badger, Skip Hicks, Mark Fischer, Pat Palmer, David Terrell, Antwaun Ponds, Nate Stimson, Derek Smith (the OL, not LB), Jeff Hall, Tim Alexander, Lloyd Harrison, Michael Moore, Quincy Sanders, Todd Husak, Delbert Cowsette, Ethan Howell, Sage Rosenfels, Mario Monds, Rashad Bauman, Cliff Russell, Andre Lott, Robert Royal, Reggie Cloman, Jeff Grau, Jeff Scott. And this was just REDSKIN drafts.

So lets look at a complete NFL 3rd round from a few years back, since a lot of your sure-things were in the 3rd round:
1 63 Travis Prentice Browns RB Miami (OH)
2 64 Lloyd Harrison Redskins DB North Carolina State
3 65 Giovanni Carmazzi 49ers QB Hofstra
4 66 Ron Dugans Bengals WR Florida State
5 67 Mark Simoneau Falcons LB Kansas State
6 68 Erron Kinney Titans TE Florida
7 69 Dez White Bears WR Georgia Tech
8 70 Chris Cole Broncos WR Texas A&M
9 71 Darwin Walker Cardinals DT Tennessee
10 72 Kendrick Clancy Steelers DT Mississippi
11 73 Ron Dixon Giants WR Lambuth (TN)
12 74 Steve Warren Packers DT Nebraska
13 75 Chris Redman Ravens QB Louisville
14 76 J.R. Redmond Patriots RB Arizona State
15 77 Hank Poteat Steelers DB Pittsburgh
16 78 Laveranues Coles Jets WR Florida State
17 79 JaJuan Dawson Browns WR Tulane
18 80 Darrell Jackson Seahawks WR Florida
19 81 Reuben Droughns Lions RB Oregon
20 82 Leander Jordan Panthers G Indiana (PA)
21 83 Damion McIntosh Chargers T Kansas State
22 84 Ben Kelly Dolphins DB Colorado
23 85 Gregory Wesley Chiefs DB Arkansas-Pine Bluff
24 86 Jeff Ulbrich 49ers LB Hawaii
25 87 Dustin Lyman Bears LB Wake Forest
26 88 Doug Chapman Vikings RB Marshall
27 89 Corey Moore Bills LB Virginia Tech
28 90 Nate Webster Buccaneers LB Miami (FL)
29 91 David Macklin Colts DB Penn State
30 92 T.J. Slaughter Jaguars LB Southern Mississippi
31 93 Byron Frisch Titans DE Brigham Young
32 94 John St. Clair

Which half of that list provides the answers for their teams? Pick the second and third rounds from several seasons 3 or more years back (enough time to perform), and you will see that this extremely low success rate is consistent. It just ain't that easy to predict who is going to make it. Couch, McNabb and Akili Smith were picked ahead of Culpepper. Hell, Milt Plum and Ronnie Knox were drafted way ahead of Jurgy (4th round). There are massive numbers of examples.