Vick's Value... Justified or Too Much Hype?

Daseal · 09-04-2004, 06:52 PM

I do think that, I think you meant to type "you think that" however in talking with about 10-15 other people I know that play fantasy very few people thought Fitz would be a decent pickup for a starting receiver. I don't think he'll have anything near in the Pro's that he had in college. Shipp is much more important than Boldin, they have no real run threat. People aren't stacking 8 in the box to stop Emitt anymore.

We'll see by the end of the season, Smoot. Rookie WRs typically don't do overly well. This year a lot of talent came out, I see a few of them having big years. I just don't see Fitz as one of them.

SmootSmack · 09-04-2004, 07:11 PM

Fair enough Daseal. I think you're right about Emmitt, he's not the threat he once was. Shipp, on the other hand, has yet to live up to whatever potential he ever had stamped on him. If I remember right, it wasn't until about midseason last year that he became a starting back for the team, and his numbers were pretty piss poor. I remember because that bastard was on my fantasy team last year

Anyhow, with a weak running game and no legit receiver beside him Anquan Boldin still managed to have a monster rookie season. On the one hand you could argue that Boldin had the benefit of a veteran QB in Jeff Blake-something Fitz won't have. On the other hand the Cardinals had a defensive minded head coach in Dave McGinnis last year, not Dennis Green-something Fitz will have.

offiss · 09-04-2004, 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joethiesmanfan

this is the redskins website i am more worried about Brunnell and Ramsey looking stupid than Vick. Hell if anyone is over valued its Patricvk Ramsey we could have gotten a good DE and he couldve been in Miami with the rest of the crack heads. Cant blame Joe gibbs cant blame spurrier. Until he shows me he can play QB in the NFL I say cut Ramsey cut Ramsey or trade him.

It's a good thing you didn't take that aproach for your name sake, Joey T.

Hogskin · 09-05-2004, 01:43 AM

Vick goes much too early for me to ever take him. In the second round, I would take a very strong WR or even a RB before I would take a QB with a high injury probability. If he misses even 4 weeks (which is optomistic), you have 4 matches without your 2nd round pick, leaving you at a disadvantage for the season. If you like longshots, go for it. He has great potential if he stays healthy. I just try to go with a steady team that has high odds to be among the playoff teams. The playoffs are probably 80% luck - anyone can win. If you consistently make the playoffs, you will win championships.

As far as rookie WR's, I agree with Daseal - extremely low odds. Of all the rookie wide receivers since 1990 that were FAIRLY HIGH FANTASY PICKS, I can only think of 3 or 4 that justified their draft position. Moss and Galloway had excellent rookie seasons and paid off for their early draft position. Many, many dozens of others did not. So I wait for the late ones and try to luck out with a good sleeper at almost no cost. Boldin was DRAFTED in 80% of our leagues last year (always very late, of course). That really paid off for the guys that took him. The guys that squander early picks on the big name rookie WR's really hurt their chances. We have large rosters, so you have the opportunity to grab some guys that look promising to you and see if they pan out. To me, that is what fantasy sports is all about - not a mad dash for a free agent (like Boldin) after he ALREADY proves himself. It is much more rewarding the other way.

That Guy · 09-05-2004, 09:56 PM

well, by the 5th-6th round, you're getting fitz as your 2nd WR, and for his potential, plenty of people think he's worth the risk... he's definately the safest rookie bet, but even if he doesn't do so well, he's not being drafted before moss or joe horn, when you get to the 70-90 2003 points, that's where he's being taken. I do think he'll have a good enough year to merit that at least (though i never got a chance to take him)... still, he shouldn't go undrafted by 12 teams with 15 rounds... who could possibly be a better 4th WR pick in the 15th round??

Hogskin · 09-06-2004, 01:44 AM

If you are getting Fitz in the 5th round, and he is your 2nd WR, your team is in trouble. He has not gone nearly that early even in any of our $2500 16-team Elite leagues with very, very good competition. You want solid guys for your top 2 WR's, THEN go for the longshots. (and don't kid yourself - rookie WR's are longshots). If you take him in round 5 of a 12-team league, you are bypassing a lot of very solid players like Lloyd, Branch (now #1 in NE), or even Chambers or McCareins in some leagues. Get a solid base, THEN go for good gambles - there will still be plenty out there.

Another suggestion to anyone that is still to draft in a 12-team league. The strategy that came into popularity last year of drafting 2 RB's in the first two rounds no matter what, can be consistently taken advantage of, and beaten. There are a lot of decent RB's out there, and you can gain much more advantage at other positions and still get decent RB points by going with WR's in the first two rounds if you draft late. It worked GREAT for me last year in several leagues, and I just finished a 12-team draft tonight drafting #8 - another high-dollar league with very good, experienced competition. But most of the guys started with the 2 RB strategy last year. This league uses 2 RB's and 3 WR's. Using this strategy, I ended up with Randy Moss, Chad Johnson, Charles Rogers, Lloyd, Pennington, Griffin (and got his backups late) and Kevin Jones, Ravens and Redskins as a nucleus. Another sure playoff team, and will have a great shot at the championship. Most of the other teams in the league will get more points at RB than this one, but we will MUCH more than make up for it at WR and DT.

BOTTOM LINE: If you draft late, DON'T take 2 mediocre RB's in the first two rounds - you will not make the playoffs. If you feel you HAVE to take one, at least get a great WR first.

That Guy · 09-06-2004, 06:50 AM

i drafted 8th twice and i ended up with jamal in one league and a. green in the other

when you play for cash its a little different though.

Hogskin · 09-06-2004, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by That Guy

i drafted 8th twice and i ended up with jamal in one league and a. green in the other

NICE!!!!!!! Ahman has been going in the first 3 picks in every draft.

That Guy · 09-06-2004, 04:46 PM

yeah, i was shocked... i understand jamal, he's not blazing fast and he has the drug trial... most of my leagues went PH, LT, CP, AG... though i think green will probably have a better year than portis honestly.

09-04-2004, 07:11 PM	#32
SmootSmack Uncle Phil Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 45,256	Fair enough Daseal. I think you're right about Emmitt, he's not the threat he once was. Shipp, on the other hand, has yet to live up to whatever potential he ever had stamped on him. If I remember right, it wasn't until about midseason last year that he became a starting back for the team, and his numbers were pretty piss poor. I remember because that bastard was on my fantasy team last year Anyhow, with a weak running game and no legit receiver beside him Anquan Boldin still managed to have a monster rookie season. On the one hand you could argue that Boldin had the benefit of a veteran QB in Jeff Blake-something Fitz won't have. On the other hand the Cardinals had a defensive minded head coach in Dave McGinnis last year, not Dennis Green-something Fitz will have. __________________ You're So Vain...You Probably Think This Sig Is About You

09-05-2004, 01:43 AM	#34
Hogskin Impact Rookie Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Hartselle, Alabama Age: 83 Posts: 659	Vick goes much too early for me to ever take him. In the second round, I would take a very strong WR or even a RB before I would take a QB with a high injury probability. If he misses even 4 weeks (which is optomistic), you have 4 matches without your 2nd round pick, leaving you at a disadvantage for the season. If you like longshots, go for it. He has great potential if he stays healthy. I just try to go with a steady team that has high odds to be among the playoff teams. The playoffs are probably 80% luck - anyone can win. If you consistently make the playoffs, you will win championships. As far as rookie WR's, I agree with Daseal - extremely low odds. Of all the rookie wide receivers since 1990 that were FAIRLY HIGH FANTASY PICKS, I can only think of 3 or 4 that justified their draft position. Moss and Galloway had excellent rookie seasons and paid off for their early draft position. Many, many dozens of others did not. So I wait for the late ones and try to luck out with a good sleeper at almost no cost. Boldin was DRAFTED in 80% of our leagues last year (always very late, of course). That really paid off for the guys that took him. The guys that squander early picks on the big name rookie WR's really hurt their chances. We have large rosters, so you have the opportunity to grab some guys that look promising to you and see if they pan out. To me, that is what fantasy sports is all about - not a mad dash for a free agent (like Boldin) after he ALREADY proves himself. It is much more rewarding the other way. __________________ John Shaffer National Fantasy Sports Leagues, Inc. Home of "The BEST Game In Town" since 1990

09-06-2004, 01:44 AM	#36
Hogskin Impact Rookie Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Hartselle, Alabama Age: 83 Posts: 659	If you are getting Fitz in the 5th round, and he is your 2nd WR, your team is in trouble. He has not gone nearly that early even in any of our $2500 16-team Elite leagues with very, very good competition. You want solid guys for your top 2 WR's, THEN go for the longshots. (and don't kid yourself - rookie WR's are longshots). If you take him in round 5 of a 12-team league, you are bypassing a lot of very solid players like Lloyd, Branch (now #1 in NE), or even Chambers or McCareins in some leagues. Get a solid base, THEN go for good gambles - there will still be plenty out there. Another suggestion to anyone that is still to draft in a 12-team league. The strategy that came into popularity last year of drafting 2 RB's in the first two rounds no matter what, can be consistently taken advantage of, and beaten. There are a lot of decent RB's out there, and you can gain much more advantage at other positions and still get decent RB points by going with WR's in the first two rounds if you draft late. It worked GREAT for me last year in several leagues, and I just finished a 12-team draft tonight drafting #8 - another high-dollar league with very good, experienced competition. But most of the guys started with the 2 RB strategy last year. This league uses 2 RB's and 3 WR's. Using this strategy, I ended up with Randy Moss, Chad Johnson, Charles Rogers, Lloyd, Pennington, Griffin (and got his backups late) and Kevin Jones, Ravens and Redskins as a nucleus. Another sure playoff team, and will have a great shot at the championship. Most of the other teams in the league will get more points at RB than this one, but we will MUCH more than make up for it at WR and DT. BOTTOM LINE: If you draft late, DON'T take 2 mediocre RB's in the first two rounds - you will not make the playoffs. If you feel you HAVE to take one, at least get a great WR first. __________________ John Shaffer National Fantasy Sports Leagues, Inc. Home of "The BEST Game In Town" since 1990

09-04-2004, 06:52 PM	#31
Daseal Puppy Kicker Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Arlington, Virginia Age: 41 Posts: 8,341	I do think that, I think you meant to type "you think that" however in talking with about 10-15 other people I know that play fantasy very few people thought Fitz would be a decent pickup for a starting receiver. I don't think he'll have anything near in the Pro's that he had in college. Shipp is much more important than Boldin, they have no real run threat. People aren't stacking 8 in the box to stop Emitt anymore. We'll see by the end of the season, Smoot. Rookie WRs typically don't do overly well. This year a lot of talent came out, I see a few of them having big years. I just don't see Fitz as one of them.

09-05-2004, 09:56 PM	#35
That Guy Living Legend Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: VA Age: 42 Posts: 17,553	well, by the 5th-6th round, you're getting fitz as your 2nd WR, and for his potential, plenty of people think he's worth the risk... he's definately the safest rookie bet, but even if he doesn't do so well, he's not being drafted before moss or joe horn, when you get to the 70-90 2003 points, that's where he's being taken. I do think he'll have a good enough year to merit that at least (though i never got a chance to take him)... still, he shouldn't go undrafted by 12 teams with 15 rounds... who could possibly be a better 4th WR pick in the 15th round??

09-06-2004, 06:50 AM	#37
That Guy Living Legend Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: VA Age: 42 Posts: 17,553	i drafted 8th twice and i ended up with jamal in one league and a. green in the other when you play for cash its a little different though.

09-06-2004, 04:46 PM	#39
That Guy Living Legend Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: VA Age: 42 Posts: 17,553	yeah, i was shocked... i understand jamal, he's not blazing fast and he has the drug trial... most of my leagues went PH, LT, CP, AG... though i think green will probably have a better year than portis honestly.

Vick's Value... Justified or Too Much Hype?

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