Forget the Game, what about the F...ing INJURIES?!

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I'd probably use DPAR (Defense adjusted points above replacement) since Football Outsiders already scales their numbers to equal points in a football game.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2007

For the offensive lines I'd probably come up with a total value for the line, and attempt to assign a responsibility to each position, but that could get real messy real fast. OLs are always tough to apply numbers to.

I think you could find each players contribution if you averaged their four most recent seasons. That would give a good idea.

OK, heres what I found on the injury report:

The injuries to the offensive line are costing us about -.35 yards per carry (thats a lot). The adjusted sack numbers don't really look any different.

Portis' injury that he's trying to play through is crippling him. Normally, he's good for about 20 pts (above replacement) in a season based on the average of his prior three seasons in Washington. This year, hes on pace to finish at about 5 pts (above replacement), well below the league average. It's impossible to tell exactly how much of that decline is due to offensive line and not injury, but the Redskins line ranks 18th in FO's adjusted line yards, but 30th in yards/carry (Houston, Chicago). What's killing our yards/carry is the lack of long 20+ yard runs, and obviously you can't put that on the offensive line. Once a back is in the secondary.

I'd like to run some pass pro numbers after the Pats game is factored in, but that's going to take me some time.

Carlos Rogers' injury is not lethal in terms of pass coverage, because Smoot's splits are nearly identical against the pass. Against the run however, Carlos will be sorely missed. The outside runs are a weak spot on our defense, and we may need to start bringing Landry up into the box again to have a chance to stop it. That could open the floodgates.

Rogers' injury will mean that the Redskins have a replacement level dime back now. I have yet to quantify the effect of a dime back on his defense, but considering that Smoot and Prioleau were playing well in the nickel/dime roles, it's going to be a BIG dropoff. I'd estimate half a game in terms of W/L.

So here's my estimation on how the Skins' record has been affected by those 4 injuries: roughly 1.5-2 games worse off, which is pretty sizable.