Ocho Cinco In B&G

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by That Guy

got any proof of that?

we've got good starters on OL, and depth takes time to improve, so new linemen aren't going to come in and make an immediate impact (until at least 6 games in when they learn how the other guys play), but a WR could immediately. TO gave philly and dallas a LOT more than a 1 win advantage, and so did randy moss (both in minn and NE... oak didn't have a QB that could take advantage of him).

the only two spots where you could get a bigger immediate impact would be DE (which is still rare for a strong 1st year contribution) or getting phillips at safety.

R. Moss was valued (purely on catch and value on passes thrown in his direction) at 51 DPAR this season. That is roughly a one win advantage (over the replacement level ish Reche Caldwell), or so my research on the topic has shown. This of course, doesn't account for how defenses alter their play to account for the threat that Moss brings, but you can only give a guy so much credit on plays he doesn't get the ball. Let's not act like Welker wasn't just as big a part of the Pats success as Moss was.

Johnson's DPAR was valued at 34, or roughly 1/2 to 2/3 of a win. But if he came here, he would not be replacing Reche Caldwell. He would be replacing Santana Moss, who is on the basis of the career, a lot stronger than Caldwell. Johnson is obviously an upgrade, but not more than maybe a 3rd of a win.

Johnson isn't Owens, and he isn't Moss. He's very, very good. But he would have a reasonably negligible effect on our team because it's not like we don't already have a competent passing game. It would just get slightly better.

I'm not sure drafting a guard with a pick that we would have traded for Johnson improves our team a whole lot in the short run, but if you think about where we will be a year or two years from now with no talent in the interior vs. a potential solid starter or even probowler, it makes little sense to argue that the possibility of an extra win this year is a good move when it costs us a few wins in the future.

None of that even begins to address the financial applications which make a CJ acquisition silly at best, and crippling at worst (depending on how many added restructurings we do to fit him in).