Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

Not looking good for Johnny

The Associated Press: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.

No spin, and I do agree that Obama is heavily favored at this point based on the numbers.

But do those Quinnipac polls account for Bob Barr and Ralph Nader? And do they account for the age bias in likely voters? Because when they say "likely" voters, I'm not certain they're appropriately adjusting for the young voters who tend not to mobilize and the older voters who tend to show up in droves.

From what I know about stats, I'd agree that Obama is favored at this point, simply because sampling errors (as I discussed above) are not enough to make up for a 10 point deficit. But I also think it will be closer than these polls indicate.