Cerrato Vaguely Explains Draft Strategy (with Questionable Evidence)

[Beemnseven]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

I think it's funny that, prior to the draft, nearly everyone on this board agreed in the Pioli principle of drafting the best player available. Now that it appears that we need linemen, most people seem to have done a 180. For the record, I've always believed in the "blended" model whereby you take the best player available at a position of need.

But didn't the Patriots "need" a linebacker? Vrabel and Bruschi are ancient. They did need a linebacker, so they got Jerod Mayo.

Just like we needed a cornerback in the 2005 draft. Champ was gone, and Smoot was in Minnesota. So we drafted Carlos Rogers.

You can't ignore needs, that's for sure.

[dmek25]

hey beems, i see your dad(?) has joined us on the warpath. and to me, it makes no sense to take the best player available. every team in the nfl has needs.

[djnemo65]

I don't get how can you defend drafting three guys who have contributed zero this year and then turn around and trash two other guys' rookie seasons. If we all agree that you can't judge draft picks based on first year production, and I'm sure Vinny thinks that, then what the hell do Campbell and Merling's first year tackle totals have to do with anything? Is the argument, yeah, Thomas, Davis, and Kelly have all sucked this year, but Philip Merling and Calais Campbell suck too, so ha! Because that's pretty dumb.

[Daseal]

We all knew Devin Thomas would be slow to develop. He was a one year wonder more or less at Michigan State, but has all the physical tools to become a very productive player.

Malcolm Kelly is a very good receiver that could probably produce some numbers right away, however when you're injured it's tough to get on the field. WR is one of the hardest positions to learn as a rookie, and missing any time makes it that much tougher.

The Fred Davis pick was a bit questionable, and could have definitely gone another way. However, once (if) he picks up the system he could be a great asset to this team. Even without him we've been running double TE sets with Yoder fairly often.

Listen, receivers have to be given time to develop. They have a lot of responsibilities on the field. They have to learn all of the routes, the verbage, their hot routes, how to read defenses to know when to run hot routes, work with the QB for timing and rhythm, etc.

The draft is a crap shoot. Right now, it looks as if Horton should have been a 1st round pick. Basing production off of a rookie year is crazy.

Everyone here was raving about Vinny this offseason. We didn't go after those high priced free agents, we traded down for more picks, we got arguably the consensus #1 WR, The #1 TE, and the #3 WR on the board. It isn't like Vinny pulled some obscure name out of a hat.

It sucks that our team is struggling, but we just switched to a new system, give Zorn time to get his guys in the door, and maybe we can ship out some of the older guys and turn towards a youth movement. The oldest average age team in the NFL is only getting older.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by bedlamVR

I have a question for all the FO bashers and I know betters... .

In this upcoming draft would you take a second or third round talent with our first round pick simply because it is a OL or DL? i.e. a possition of need . Would you pick up someone who might go undrafted in the third round ?

We have been down this drafting for need under Gibbs and yes it worked out in some cases (Sean Taylor) but there are instances where we could get more value by taking the BPA . That when we lock onto someone ( like Roky McIntosh, Jason Campbell) and overpay to get him rather than take the best player/deal available when we pick, or we get cornered into drafting a particular possition (i.e. CB Carlos Rogers) because of what happens in FA when there is more talent available elsewhere .

I really think we forget how bad the Skins were between 93-97 ... so bad indeed when Reggie White left the Eagles he went round every other team except the Redskins because he was looking for a "playoff contender"

So bad that when we got a bucket of picks for Ricky Williams from the siants we came away with Jon Jansen and Champ Bailey ... thats it ..

We also traded 1,2,3rd round pick for Brad Johnson in 1999, the year we also let that bum Trent Green go via free agency...

And remember although 1999 was the year Snyder bought the team but most of FA and the draft was run by the Cook Estate .

Also in the 90s we drafted such memorable players like : Andre Johnson (1st round) Skip Hicks ( a good situational player but 2nd round pick?) Heath Shuler, Stephen Alexander ( never lived upto his hype), Micheal Westbrook and a bunch of no bodies even the most ardient of Skins fans would struggle to have heard of ...

The time immediately after JKC's death, when his son and the estate ran the club were terrible days/years for this organization. I think people that hate on DS are forgetting (or blocked it out) how awful JKC's son was for the club. If I remember correctly, the choices for team ownership came down to JKC's son, a conglomerate who wanted "the Redskins", or DS who had been a lifelong fan.
Maybe the other option would have been different, we will never know, but Snyder came in and took over a dysfunctional club, and did it from a fan's perspective.

All you have to do is look over these threads and you see how topsy-turvy that can make a club. The question now, is has he matured as an owner, is he willing to sacrifice the now for the long-term. If not, if he still rides the flow of emotion when making decisions, then we will never regain the greatness that was the JKC/Gibbs Skins of the 80's.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by Daseal

We all knew Devin Thomas would be slow to develop. He was a one year wonder more or less at Michigan State, but has all the physical tools to become a very productive player.

Malcolm Kelly is a very good receiver that could probably produce some numbers right away, however when you're injured it's tough to get on the field. WR is one of the hardest positions to learn as a rookie, and missing any time makes it that much tougher.

The Fred Davis pick was a bit questionable, and could have definitely gone another way. However, once (if) he picks up the system he could be a great asset to this team. Even without him we've been running double TE sets with Yoder fairly often.

Listen, receivers have to be given time to develop. They have a lot of responsibilities on the field. They have to learn all of the routes, the verbage, their hot routes, how to read defenses to know when to run hot routes, work with the QB for timing and rhythm, etc.

The draft is a crap shoot. Right now, it looks as if Horton should have been a 1st round pick. Basing production off of a rookie year is crazy.

Everyone here was raving about Vinny this offseason. We didn't go after those high priced free agents, we traded down for more picks, we got arguably the consensus #1 WR, The #1 TE, and the #3 WR on the board. It isn't like Vinny pulled some obscure name out of a hat.

It sucks that our team is struggling, but we just switched to a new system, give Zorn time to get his guys in the door, and maybe we can ship out some of the older guys and turn towards a youth movement. The oldest average age team in the NFL is only getting older.

Well said. Nobody wants to hear it right now but we have to have some patience with last year's draft class. If at this time next year we're still seeing little production from Thomas, Kelly, and Davis, then it might be time to panic a bit. Even then it typically takes a good 3-4 seasons for a WR to hit their stride.

[redsk1]

Originally Posted by Daseal

We all knew Devin Thomas would be slow to develop. He was a one year wonder more or less at Michigan State, but has all the physical tools to become a very productive player.

Malcolm Kelly is a very good receiver that could probably produce some numbers right away, however when you're injured it's tough to get on the field. WR is one of the hardest positions to learn as a rookie, and missing any time makes it that much tougher.

The Fred Davis pick was a bit questionable, and could have definitely gone another way. However, once (if) he picks up the system he could be a great asset to this team. Even without him we've been running double TE sets with Yoder fairly often.

Listen, receivers have to be given time to develop. They have a lot of responsibilities on the field. They have to learn all of the routes, the verbage, their hot routes, how to read defenses to know when to run hot routes, work with the QB for timing and rhythm, etc.

The draft is a crap shoot. Right now, it looks as if Horton should have been a 1st round pick. Basing production off of a rookie year is crazy.

Everyone here was raving about Vinny this offseason. We didn't go after those high priced free agents, we traded down for more picks, we got arguably the consensus #1 WR, The #1 TE, and the #3 WR on the board. It isn't like Vinny pulled some obscure name out of a hat.

It sucks that our team is struggling, but we just switched to a new system, give Zorn time to get his guys in the door, and maybe we can ship out some of the older guys and turn towards a youth movement. The oldest average age team in the NFL is only getting older.

I agree w/ your whole post, with one exception...we tried to send 1 or 2 picks for Chad Johnson in the offseason. They just didn't bite. Of course, that's just what was reported...at least 1 first rounder.

[Defensewins]

Originally Posted by djnemo65

I don't get how can you defend drafting three guys who have contributed zero this year and then turn around and trash two other guys' rookie seasons. If we all agree that you can't judge draft picks based on first year production, and I'm sure Vinny thinks that, then what the hell do Campbell and Merling's first year tackle totals have to do with anything? Is the argument, yeah, Thomas, Davis, and Kelly have all sucked this year, but Philip Merling and Calais Campbell suck too, so ha! Because that's pretty dumb.

That was the whole point of this thread and calling Cerratto an idiot.
Good post.

Regarding the guys that want to wait years before judging our top three picks, you can not get around that they arrived to camp out of shape. I recall Zorn being really upset that they could not pass the fitness test. Then what surprise, they get hurt. Maybe because they were out of shape?
I could see a big lineman not passing a fitness test but a WR not passing a fitness test? Really! Our FO did not do their homework on these guys.
These players dropped in the draft for a reason. The other teams thought were not that great. This was clearly a weak WR class.
We should not be surprised they dropped in the draft and they have done very unproductive in the playing field. It is clear by their on the field production that were not as great a value as some people claim.

[Beemnseven]

Originally Posted by Defensewins

That was the whole point of this thread and calling Cerratto an idiot.
Good post.

Regarding the guys that want to wait years before judging our top three picks, you can not get around that they arrived to camp out of shape. I recall Zorn being really upset that they could not pass the fitness test. Then what surprise, they get hurt. Maybe because they were out of shape?
I could see a big lineman not passing a fitness test but a WR not passing a fitness test? Really! Our FO did not do their homework on these guys.
These players dropped in the draft for a reason. The other teams thought were not that great. This was clearly a weak WR class.
We should not be surprised they dropped in the draft and they have done very unproductive in the playing field. It is clear by their on the field production that were not as great a value as some people claim.

Yeah, it's one thing that they couldn't get a grasp of the playbook or contribute more to the offense, but they couldn't even help out in the punt or kick return department.

Even with Desmond Howard, the incredible bust that he was as a wideout, at least he was able to help out in special teams.

[Beemnseven]

Originally Posted by bedlamVR

I STILL like this 2008 draft even though so many "fans" want to bitch and whine about it come week 14 . I actually think it is funny in a way how Vinny calls out the "fans" by saying if we selected a DE like Merling or Campbell ad they had the same production here as they had in their teams, then I can imagine the response ...

[Quote random guy] I cannot believe we took this bum Merling at 21 ! He hasn't started more than 2 games . Vinny is an idiot especially when you think the Falcons were dangling three (3!) second round picks for our 21 - we could have seriously upgraded our WRs which must be the worst in the league , I meen we could have got Devin Thomas and someone like Malcom Kelly with those picks .. I meen this is the WCO we NEED big receivers and who have we got a Giants PS reject and McNobody..Vinny has to go Snyder is to blame ...etc etc [/Quote Random guy]

Now given the fact that no one in our FO can see into the future you have to go off how the players play in collage . It is so much easier to guess who is going to be good 14 weeks into a season rather than on draft day ...

Okay, clearly you're a Vinny defender. And I love how you put the word "fans" in quotes -- as if to imply that those who criticize the front office and their draft selections are really imposters who are only posing as Redskin fans.

I'd like to ask you though, what is it about Vinny Cerrato and his track record as a personnel guy that you are so eager to defend?

[MrJL]

Originally Posted by bedlamVR

I have a question for all the FO bashers and I know betters... .

In this upcoming draft would you take a second or third round talent with our first round pick simply because it is a OL or DL? i.e. a possition of need . Would you pick up someone who might go undrafted in the third round ?

We have been down this drafting for need under Gibbs and yes it worked out in some cases (Sean Taylor) but there are instances where we could get more value by taking the BPA . That when we lock onto someone ( like Roky McIntosh, Jason Campbell) and overpay to get him rather than take the best player/deal available when we pick, or we get cornered into drafting a particular possition (i.e. CB Carlos Rogers) because of what happens in FA when there is more talent available elsewhere .

I really think we forget how bad the Skins were between 93-97 ... so bad indeed when Reggie White left the Eagles he went round every other team except the Redskins because he was looking for a "playoff contender"

So bad that when we got a bucket of picks for Ricky Williams from the siants we came away with Jon Jansen and Champ Bailey ... thats it ..

We also traded 1,2,3rd round pick for Brad Johnson in 1999, the year we also let that bum Trent Green go via free agency...

And remember although 1999 was the year Snyder bought the team but most of FA and the draft was run by the Cook Estate .

Also in the 90s we drafted such memorable players like : Andre Johnson (1st round) Skip Hicks ( a good situational player but 2nd round pick?) Heath Shuler, Stephen Alexander ( never lived upto his hype), Micheal Westbrook and a bunch of no bodies even the most ardient of Skins fans would struggle to have heard of ...

Trent Green had never been more than a third stringer when he was released. In situations like that you don't critique the team that lost him, you praise the team that found him.

Your logic doen't take into account things like, what happens when the BPA is a player at a position you have a glut at?

[bedlamVR]

It all depends on how you define best .. is best simply the best athlete on the board or is best the best athlete where you have a need or the player would add something to the team and I kind of think it is the latter ..

I am not explaing that well ..

Okay say you go into the draft and you need a RB and a DE but you have thin depth behind veteran/aging starters at WR. OL, S and LB . When you come to pick all that is available are projects and marginal players at DE and RB, but there is a stud OLB. You cannot find anyone to trade down with to get more value so you are stuck . What do you do ? Draft a RB or DE anyway even though you know you are reaching ( the cowboys did this a lot in the late 90s under JJ) or do you take the better value at a position that is not such a glaring need in the understanding that your top pick may not see the field much in his rookie season.

Need positions in my opinion should be handled through free agency rather than the draft . Okay some positions like CB, OLT, No 1 CB rarely hit the market and you have to look to the draft for those but otherwise you draft for need and the player doesn't pan out you not only have a wasted pick but you still also still have the need .

Some people point to the Tuna when talking about draft picks and that is the way to go... Parcells drafted all OL and DL and that is a good way to go about building a team from the ground up, he went a similar direction with the Cowboys, but he did not draft well he simply drafted a lot . One way to approach the drafting for need is to simply pick a position and select the best player at that position with each of your draft picks . The Eagles do a similar thing, they throw a lot of picks at one position and hope something sticks. Sometimes it does work and you end up with a star but this approach leads to the detriment of other positions.

[bedlamVR]

Originally Posted by Beemnseven

Okay, clearly you're a Vinny defender. And I love how you put the word "fans" in quotes -- as if to imply that those who criticize the front office and their draft selections are really impostors who are only posing as Redskin fans.

I'd like to ask you though, what is it about Vinny Cerrato and his track record as a personnel guy that you are so eager to defend?

I do put "fans" in quotes because there are so many "fans" who just like to kick their team when they are down .. and my god it is easy to do just pile on. I have stopped posting on Extremehissyfitohmygoshithinkihavehurtmymanginaasb adasthisteamsucksSkins message board because that is all that is there .

Larry Micheals - often seen as a propagandist for the FO said something interesting and he called out the fans in a recent radio show and he was right to do so . It is easy to hate on your team when things are going badly, say your going to burn your merchandise never watch another down etc etc that doesn't make you a fan ... fan is shortened from the word fanatic from fanaticism as defined as

"Fanaticism is an emotion of being filled with excessive, uncritical zeal, particularly for an extreme religious or political cause or in some cases sports, or with an obsessive enthusiasm for a pastime or hobby. Philosopher George Santayana defines fanaticism as "redoubling your effort when you have forgotten your aim"[1]; according to Winston Churchill, "A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject". By either description the fanatic displays very strict standards and little tolerance for contrary ideas or opinions.

The difference between a fan and a fanatic is that while both have an overwhelming liking or interest in a given subject, behaviour of a fanatic will be viewed as violating prevailing social norms, while that of a fan will not violate those norms "

Fanaticism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Essentially I would expect a fan to stand behind his team no matter what ... that separates fans from guys who just watch football on a sunday/monday. I am in the UK I stay up late to watch the Skins games when I can I track down game files on the internet I spend (too much) time and effort following the team I support the Redskins and all of their players and have done so since 1984 ... I don't enjoy being lumped into with people who have nothing better to do on a Sunday so watch the game ... so yes I do put "fans" in quotations


When we were 6-2 we had posters saying stuff like "Jim Zorn is excellent, Jason Campbell is fantastic everything is wonderful", and now we are 7-7 people are saying " everything sucks we are the worst team in the league Jim Zorn has no place in the NFL and Jason Campbell couldn't start for divison II collage team ..etc etc" The problem I have with that is it is the same "fans" ... fair weather knee jerk idiots who have as much right to call themselves fans as I do to call myself a hedgehog ...

[bedlamVR]

Originally Posted by Beemnseven

But didn't the Patriots "need" a linebacker? Vrabel and Bruschi are ancient. They did need a linebacker, so they got Jerod Mayo.

Just like we needed a cornerback in the 2005 draft. Champ was gone, and Smoot was in Minnesota. So we drafted Carlos Rogers.

You can't ignore needs, that's for sure.

Varbel is old but in 2007 he was a monster having one of the best years of his career posting 12.5 sacks, Bruschi was the soul of that defense but yes LB is a position that needed depth the starters were mostly all returning and the Pats have a history of being able to pick up older LBs and get somthing out of them ... But also you could just as easily argue that having lost Gay and Samuels they should have gone CB first if they picked soley on need but picked up Mayo a little early possibly because he was the BPA when they picked ...

[bedlamVR]

Originally Posted by MrJL

Trent Green had never been more than a third stringer when he was released. In situations like that you don't critique the team that lost him, you praise the team that found him.

Your logic doen't take into account things like, what happens when the BPA is a player at a position you have a glut at?

Do you just block out 1998 ? Okay it was a terrible season but the guy wasn't even playing football when we picked him up . He was drafted by the chargers in 1994 was cut in 1995 played for the British Columbian lions for a while then came into the skins as the emergency starter and put up massive stats for a redskins QB ..

3,441 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions and ran in 2 more behind a very leaky cobbled together offensive line.

We offered him 12 million over 4 years ...he went to the rams ...

That was also the year we "found" Stephen Davis, though he was mostly used as a FB making holes for Skip Hicks ...

Okay I have a counter question ... did we have a glut of tall athletic WR's on the team before the 2008 draft ... ? I get your point You can if you solely go off PFW draft preview end up getting into trouble drafting BPA (see the lions), but the problem with the Lions is they did nothing to sure up the rest of the team and did nothing to really scout the players they were drafting and were wowed by the highlight reels . You cannot ignore need but really in these days of free agency unless you are picking in the top 5-7 then you shouldn't be going into the draft with a desperate need position ...