Iranian Election and Government Structure

[Trample the Elderly]

Originally Posted by saden1

I sometimes wonder if you're a real person. Do you really exist or are you a character created by one of our members for their own musing?

Aren't you the one who said that we should be friends to the terrorist in club Gitmo? He He He You're the one with a screw loose.

[FRPLG]

Originally Posted by firstdown

I was thinking more of current stuff and how presidents have treated Iran.

A lot of our problems in the Middle East can be traced to this type of thinking. They don't forget. We helped stage a major coup in Iran some 50 years ago and they still hate us for it. I don't blame them. We still hold Japan's feet to the coals with provisions from the surrender in WWII and that was even longer ago. Just because it hasn't happened in your lifetime doesn't mean it doesn't matter. Much of the ire towards us is pretty warranted based on our continued interference in their business.

[saden1]

Originally Posted by Trample the Elderly

Aren't you the one who said that we should be friends to the terrorist in club Gitmo? He He He You're the one with a screw loose.

You're fencing with boxing gloves again?

[Trample the Elderly]

Originally Posted by saden1

You're fencing with boxing gloves again?

Whatever, you don't mean anything to me.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by FRPLG

A lot of our problems in the Middle East can be traced to this type of thinking. They don't forget. We helped stage a major coup in Iran some 50 years ago and they still hate us for it. I don't blame them. We still hold Japan's feet to the coals with provisions from the surrender in WWII and that was even longer ago. Just because it hasn't happened in your lifetime doesn't mean it doesn't matter. Much of the ire towards us is pretty warranted based on our continued interference in their business.

What continued interference? Trying to stop some nut job from having a nuk?

[RobH4413]

Originally Posted by firstdown

How has the US ever tried to force democracy on Iran? Yes presidents have talked about a democracy in Iran but that as far as it ever has gone. You do know this was all brought about because of Obama's speech a couple of weeks back and now democracy will spread like wild fire and we will all live as one.

I never said we were trying to force democracy on Iran. We have, however, forced democracy out of Iran. In light of our record of implementing democracy on Islamic states, I felt it was appropriate to address that issue of what the Iranian people feel.

[GusFrerotte]

Originally Posted by firstdown

What continued interference? Trying to stop some nut job from having a nuk?

First of all the guy isn't a nutjob. The MSM painting this guy as a Hitler is insane. Ahjy isn't calling for war. Iran has the second lowest per capita defense spending in the entire ME. Do you think they are ready to fight a war with Nixon era F-4 Phantoms? Like previous posters have said Khameini has all the power. He is the head of the govt, the armed forces, etc. Ahjy did pose some relevant points vis a vis the Holocaust and he was automatically labeled a Denier. For the most part, most of his talking about the Holocaust centers on how the Israelis tend to use it as a blank check excuse for anything they do. As for this nutjob wanting nukes? No concrete evidence as of yet that they have a nuke weapon program, but even if they really do, does it matter? For 50+ years we stood toe to toe against the USSR who had 20,000 warheads pointed at us and Europe. Iranians are not fools, if they were to try an attack Israel, the Israelis would wipe them out easily, as would the US. Everybody wants to join the nuclear club now. They know it means hands off to the US. Face it, we haven't fought a true honest opponent in a war since the Vietcong and the NVA and we lost that one even though the kill ratio was what 20-1? The Iranian thinking is that they get nukes we will leave them alone. Pretty soon Chavez will have them or try to procure them.

[GusFrerotte]

As for Iranian democracy, if I am not mistaken didn't the Washington Post just run a story about how they conducted a poll in Iran a week before the election and the poll came out almost identical to the real outcome? Ahjy gets his support from the workers and peasants in the small towns and rural areas which make up the majority of the Iranian population. Mousavi gets his support from the students, the artists, upper class, along with the rich expats abroad. Throw in the typcial DC saber rattling as of late and it is more than believable that Ahjy could win by a 2-1 margin. Another interesting tidbit about Mousavi is that he was the Foreign Minister during the Iran Iraq War, had a hand in Iran Contra, and also is beleived to have had a hand in the creation of Hezbollah, so in reality it might not really matter who wins.

[70Chip]

There has always been a stong undercurrent of resistance to the theocracy in Iran but I think the main reason it is reaching a critical mass now is that the younger folks there feel empowered enough to act. Remember, that an entire Iranian generation was wiped out in the Iran-Iraq war. That allowed the mullahs to maintain power through a difficult time and for a longer period than might otherwise have been sustainable. Now, the demographics have swung against them. I suspect, however, that we will not see a full-scale counter-revolution. Instead the clerics will make enough concessions to maintain power without completely losing their grip. These protesters are not hard core deomocrats or secularists. They're just pissed that the election was a ripoff. The mullahs will survive, though what emerges will almost certainly better for us than the intransigent regime of recent years.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by RobH4413

I never said we were trying to force democracy on Iran. We have, however, forced democracy out of Iran. In light of our record of implementing democracy on Islamic states, I felt it was appropriate to address that issue of what the Iranian people feel.

Well with all the protest going on how can you say that how the people still feel about democracy. I feel its more of the people in charge and not wanting to let go of their power and keeping their people suppressed.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by GusFrerotte

As for Iranian democracy, if I am not mistaken didn't the Washington Post just run a story about how they conducted a poll in Iran a week before the election and the poll came out almost identical to the real outcome? Ahjy gets his support from the workers and peasants in the small towns and rural areas which make up the majority of the Iranian population. Mousavi gets his support from the students, the artists, upper class, along with the rich expats abroad. Throw in the typcial DC saber rattling as of late and it is more than believable that Ahjy could win by a 2-1 margin. Another interesting tidbit about Mousavi is that he was the Foreign Minister during the Iran Iraq War, had a hand in Iran Contra, and also is beleived to have had a hand in the creation of Hezbollah, so in reality it might not really matter who wins.

Do you really think they would allow the WP to do a poll that would have any other out come? I think the election was going to be rigged from the get go and thats the only reason they allowed for outside media to come in and cover the election. In their mind this would show the world that the people did support them.

[RobH4413]

Originally Posted by firstdown

Well with all the protest going on how can you say that how the people still feel about democracy. I feel its more of the people in charge and not wanting to let go of their power and keeping their people suppressed.

I can say how the Iranian people feel based on the Iranian-Americans I have studied with. They paint an accurate portrayal of the nations desire for democracy, especially the younger crowd. I think these protests demonstrate just that. There is an incredibly large moderate population that is not represented by the theocracy, and hence the reason the moderate presidential candidate is the cause for all of this protest.

[RobH4413]

Originally Posted by 70Chip

There has always been a stong undercurrent of resistance to the theocracy in Iran but I think the main reason it is reaching a critical mass now is that the younger folks there feel empowered enough to act. Remember, that an entire Iranian generation was wiped out in the Iran-Iraq war. That allowed the mullahs to maintain power through a difficult time and for a longer period than might otherwise have been sustainable. Now, the demographics have swung against them. I suspect, however, that we will not see a full-scale counter-revolution. Instead the clerics will make enough concessions to maintain power without completely losing their grip. These protesters are not hard core deomocrats or secularists. They're just pissed that the election was a ripoff. The mullahs will survive, though what emerges will almost certainly better for us than the intransigent regime of recent years.

Your completely right.

What's interesting is that this whole protest is actually putting a ton of pressure on the Ayatollah. He's is pretty much the guy in charge, and the people are showing the complete disdain for that system (Ie HIM). The fact that he's deferred to the guardian council was a move that has basically bought him more time.

Now, these protest could lead the ayatollah to simply oust Ahmadinejad, to appease the people. It's at least created a mini-storm of possibility, and what's incredibly fascinating is that this could possibly be the start of a new Iranian revolution.

What happens with that is anyone's guess.