Meet The Candidates: 2012 GOP Thread

[mlmpetert]

I think this could turn into the wildest election in a very long time. At the end of the day I think Romney is going to get the nomination, but depending on how that happens and leading up to it I think we could see some wild things.

If Paul wins Iowa then I think he will win New Hampshire by a lot. I got no idea about So. Carolina or Florida, but theyre both primaries and not caucuses so everyone in the state can vote, which I think gives Paul an advantage. 3 of those 4 states may help him in Nevada’s caucus, but I think Romney wins Nevada with its many Mormons. Either way I think the late primaries become the most important they have been in quite some time if Paul wins Iowa, New Hampshire and either SC or FL and has a strong showing in Nevada (very possible).

So I say all that because I think Paul doing that or something similar may set up 2 nightmare scenarios for the GOP:

1) Romney steals the nomination from Paul, so Paul steals the presidency from Romney by running as a third party guy. Honestly im not entirely positive Paul would steal the presidency from Romney if forced to run as a third Party guy. Since everyone likes to compare Obama to Carter, maybe in this scenario it would be fair to compare Ron Paul to John Anderson. While I think the majority of the votes for Paul would be considered “stolen” from Romney, I think a lot would come from Obama’s camp too. Still id be shocked if Romney won with Paul also running.

2) Paul wins the GOP nomination. The chances of this happening are still extremely slim, although now legitimately imaginable. If this were to happen Donald Trump could garner support from guys like O’Riliey, Rush and Hannity and run as an independent. Trump hates it when people ignore him and this could make him relevant again.

There may be a silver lining for “conservatives” with either of these scenarios, although after the last 2 weeks of hearing people bash Ron Paul and say hes not a conservative I honestly don’t know what “conservative” means anymore…. Obviously Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson’s seat is opening up and with either of the above playing out I think youll get an even bigger republican voting (proportional to democrat voting) turnout in 2012, making a Republican replacement for that seat and many others all the more likely. I thought the GOP had a legit shot at the Senate before Nelson’s retirement but now they have an even better shot.

Things are set up to be what I think are the craziest in a very long time…. I mean for God’s sake Ron Paul actually kind of has a chance of getting the Republican nomination.