How the 49ers/Texans changed my view on Football and how to build the redskins

[SouperMeister]

Originally Posted by Defensewins

The main problem with Snyderatto was they were incredibly terrible at talent evaluation and drafting players period. Regardless of how many picks they gave away or at which potion(s) they concentrated on. The players they did get were awful. The amount of quality starters, and I emphasize 'Quality' starters they drafted was very low. I m not talking about players that started for the Redskins. I am talking about players we drafted that could have started for other teams. Nearly non-existent. Quality and quantity were both an issue, regardless of postilion or quantity of draft picks.
The good teams like Ravens, Texans, Packers, Niners and Patriots have one thing in common, great talent evaluation and great draft classes.

The other thing that they have going for them is their common philosophy to stockpile draft picks, so even if they miss on a few players, when you're drafting 10-12 a year, there is a better chance on hitting on more players. Of course having 10 picks in the 2008 draft resulted in abject failure due to poor talent and character evaluation by Vinny. Having top-notch talent evaluators is the most important factor, and the book is still out on Shanny. He had a spotty draft record toward the end of his Denver run.

[diehard]

Aren't the Giants a model of success? Maybe we can get Oliver Luck to force a trade that will send Andrew to the Skins.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by biffle

So, go ahead and make an argument why Brady, the Mannings, Brees, Rodgers or Roethlisberger haven't really proven themselves elite. Because that is the whole recent history of title QBs.

There's a wide range of quarterback play in there. From the all-time greats to some guys who sometimes don't even get voted to the pro bowl. The average recent super bowl winning quarterback is usually an excellent player. This surprises no one. Sometimes, it's Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, or a first round pick in the infancy of his career. This surprises just you.

I mean, your Schaub argument kind of said everything I needed to say before. You continue to ignore the seasons that the Texans, Jets, 49ers, or Ravens had this year, even though they disprove the idea that only a team with a Manning, Brady or Rodgers can go deep in the playoffs.

And then you tried to set up a false idea that someday, one of those teams win the super bowl, and then that someone is going to gloat that you're wrong and they are right. My whole idea is: why wait? If you're going to admit that you're going to be proven wrong in the future, I don't see what is so awful about calling you on that after a season where Alex Smith, Joe Flacco, and T.J. Yates won playoff games while Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers did not.

I mean, you have just an awful argument.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by mooby

Which is why I don't want a guy who might be able to get the job done. I want the guy that gives us the best chance of it happening. Whether that's a healthy P. Manning, Luck, RG3, Tannehill, whomever, it doesn't matter. But I honestly don't think Shanny will last here that long if he has to sit Tannehill for a couple of seasons while he learns. We're going into year 3 of the regime. If it looks like we're not improving by the end of year 4, there's no telling what Snyder might do.

Let me try to rephrase the question: what about guys like Tony Romo and Philip Rivers? San Diego and Dallas are clearly not the deep organizations that Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New York, Philadelphia, and New England are, and that San Francisco and Houston are close to being. With that said, do you have any doubt that those guys can get it done? What about Matt Schaub?

I think there are two ways to look at this conundrum.

1) The idea that you don't know if someone can get it done until they actually do. Eli Manning is trying to save the Giants from a super bowl 42 loss where the Giants score just 10 points against the Patriots, and he throws a ball into the flat that lands right into the hands of Asante Samuel. Eli is who we thought he was. Then Eli escapes a sack, and ends up throwing the game winning touchdown pass. And Eli is who we thought he was! I always knew he could do that!

2) The idea that you do know your guy can get it done, but you realistically understand that not everyone gets the opportunity. When Drew Brees left New Orleans, it seemed certain that Philip Rivers would get first crack at winning the super bowl. But sometimes, circumstances change. And right now, it seems more likely that Brees will get ring No. 2 before Rivers gets to the big game.

But is there any reason to doubt Rivers? 20 INTs and missed the playoffs by a game? Well, last year, Eli threw 25 picks and missed the playoffs by a game. So I'm finding it really hard to doubt Philip Rivers. And while I don't typically have a good pulse on the opinions of the masses, the popular opinion seems to be that Rivers will get his sooner rather than later.

But if he never does, were we wrong to NOT doubt him? That doesn't make sense to me.

Ultimately, I agree with you that the clock is ticking and if you're ever going to get it right, going bold at QB might be your only option. But if it is, it is only because Plans A through G failed already. And the gap between failing spectacularly and failing like the Redskins have been I don't think has ever been smaller.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by Defensewins

The main problem with Snyderatto was they were incredibly terrible at talent evaluation and drafting players period. Regardless of how many picks they gave away or at which potion(s) they concentrated on. The players they did get were awful. The amount of quality starters, and I emphasize 'Quality' starters they drafted was very low. I m not talking about players that started for the Redskins. I am talking about players we drafted that could have started for other teams. Nearly non-existent. Quality and quantity were both an issue, regardless of postilion or quantity of draft picks.
The good teams like Ravens, Texans, Packers, Niners and Patriots have one thing in common, great talent evaluation and great draft classes.

You cannot discount the importance of draft class size, aka having more picks. Increasing pick quantities softens the blow of a "miss" because you get another chance to pick a "hit". All the teams you mentioned usually had a bigger number of picks than us for a given year.

You cannot discount the importance of draft position. Draft Position matters because later round prospects generally trash relative to the earlier round ones. Or as an example, having 10 1st rounders is going to net you a better team on average than having 20 7th rounders. Most 6th and 7th rounders WILL FAIL, and we had plenty of picks in the 6th and 7th rounds. Drafting crappy players in the 6th and 7th round is a "natural" part of the biz and not specific to the Redskins. You cannot expect to draft Pro Bowler after Pro Bowler with 7th rounders even with Bill Walsh's ghost assisting you.

Quality starters are usually found in rounds 1-3. We actually weren't that bad in the first round, but we were virtually nonexistent in rounds 2 and 3(2 especially) for the most part precisely because we did not have picks in those rounds and instead had low round picks, which are usually doomed to failure.

And our 1st rounders being that bad is NOT BS, even if they would have remained mediocre here. JC started in Oakland, Carlos Rogers started in San Fran, Sean(RIP) would have been a great one, Chris Samuels proved his worth for us, Champ was a bargaining chip for a blockbuster trade. Hell, Derrick Dockery got overpaid in Buffalo and Rock Cartwright is still in the league.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by SouperMeister

The other thing that they have going for them is their common philosophy to stockpile draft picks, so even if they miss on a few players, when you're drafting 10-12 a year, there is a better chance on hitting on more players. Of course having 10 picks in the 2008 draft resulted in abject failure due to poor talent and character evaluation by Vinny. Having top-notch talent evaluators is the most important factor, and the book is still out on Shanny. He had a spotty draft record toward the end of his Denver run.

The middle and beginning of his tenure in Denver had worse drafts. 2006 and 2008 were probably his two best drafts in Denver.

[Defensewins]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

You cannot discount the importance of draft class size, aka having more picks. Increasing pick quantities softens the blow of a "miss" because you get another chance to pick a "hit". All the teams you mentioned usually had a bigger number of picks than us for a given year.

You cannot discount the importance of draft position. Draft Position matters because later round prospects generally trash relative to the earlier round ones. Or as an example, having 10 1st rounders is going to net you a better team on average than having 20 7th rounders. Most 6th and 7th rounders WILL FAIL, and we had plenty of picks in the 6th and 7th rounds. Drafting crappy players in the 6th and 7th round is a "natural" part of the biz and not specific to the Redskins. You cannot expect to draft Pro Bowler after Pro Bowler with 7th rounders even with Bill Walsh's ghost assisting you.

Quality starters are usually found in rounds 1-3. We actually weren't that bad in the first round, but we were virtually nonexistent in rounds 2 and 3(2 especially) for the most part precisely because we did not have picks in those rounds and instead had low round picks, which are usually doomed to failure.

And our 1st rounders being that bad is NOT BS, even if they would have remained mediocre here. JC started in Oakland, Carlos Rogers started in San Fran, Sean(RIP) would have been a great one, Chris Samuels proved his worth for us, Champ was a bargaining chip for a blockbuster trade. Hell, Derrick Dockery got overpaid in Buffalo and Rock Cartwright is still in the league.

I was not discounting draft position or amount of picks. But if you do not know how to evaluate talent correctly and use the large amount of great picks you can collect, you end up the like the Detroit Lions of 1999 thru 2009, the worst Franchise of that decade. Matt Millen had no prior player development or front office experience before being hired 2001. Vinny Cerratto is boderline retarded. You have to have a good F.O.
More important then having a ton of great picks.

[Ninjafitz]

I am diehard 49ers fan. I talk 49ers all year long and a lot of draft. The thing about the 49ers is that is a team thats been mostly drafted by them.

1 starter on the offense wasnt drafted by them(Jonathon Goodwin)
4 starters on defense werent drafted by them(Justin Smith Carlos Rogers, Ahmed Brooks, Donte Whitner)
and their kicker wasnt drafted by them(David Akers)

so 6/24 starters came from different teams thats pretty damn good in my opinion.

Build through the draft and i am happy to see washington finally having plenty of picks in the draft.