Redskins: 2012 Off-Season-Free Agency/Trades

[Bubba305-ST21-]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Well, 23 is not the average rookie age if we're talking age on draft day (though I was not), 22 is.

The bigger point is that he's 15-21 months older than his peers, with "his peers" meaning "other first round draft picks at the CB position."

That's the bigger deal with his age. In other context, he's a couple months younger than Carlos Rogers was on draft day 2005, and that more than anything prevented Rogers from getting a second contract here.

hes only 23, rookies range in age from 21-23 most of the time. Kerrigan was older when he was drafted. A few months doesn't mean anything, players blossom and decline at different ages. And age was the last thing that prevented Rogers from getting a second contract here, he couldnt catch a cold and the whole relationship between him and the front office wasnt in sync, age was not a factor. That being said I would love a matured changed attitude Jenkins in the second round waiting for us to pick him.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Bubba305-ST21-

hes only 23, rookies range in age from 21-23 most of the time. Kerrigan was older when he was drafted. A few months doesn't mean anything, players blossom and decline at different ages. And age was the last thing that prevented Rogers from getting a second contract here, he couldnt catch a cold and the whole relationship between him and the front office wasnt in sync, age was not a factor.

I think you're underrating the effects of age on both and development and decisions. Kerrigan was right about the average age for a first round draft choice.

One year is generally not a big deal here and there, but if you've got juniors and seniors committed for the draft in the 21-22 range at cornerback projected to go in the first round, it's a meaningful difference to instead opt for a 23.5 year old on draft day.

Jenkins is going to get picked above any talents in the next tier, but I had no choice but to drop him b/c of his birthday when compared to the top talents in the same draft. I think he probably lasts into the second round, when someone will probably take him there for his abilities.

Not knowing the effect of someones age on draft profile isn't the same thing as saying it doesn't matter. It has to matter on some level.

[Bubba305-ST21-]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I think you're underrating the effects of age on both and development and decisions. Kerrigan was right about the average age for a first round draft choice.

One year is generally not a big deal here and there, but if you've got juniors and seniors committed for the draft in the 21-22 range at cornerback projected to go in the first round, it's a meaningful difference to instead opt for a 23.5 year old on draft day.

Jenkins is going to get picked above any talents in the next tier, but I had no choice but to drop him b/c of his birthday when compared to the top talents in the same draft. I think he probably lasts into the second round, when someone will probably take him there for his abilities.

Not knowing the effect of someones age on draft profile isn't the same thing as saying it doesn't matter. It has to matter on some level.

Kerrigan was older than Jenkins by 2 months when we drafted him....not that that even matters. All players at Qb's, Cb's, LB's etc age and decline at different times, theres no set age where your skill must decline. If a team picks another corner over jenkins it will be for other reasons, not that he is older than someone else.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Bubba305-ST21-

Kerrigan was older than Jenkins by 2 months when we drafted him....not that that even matters. All players at Qb's, Cb's, LB's etc age and decline at different times, theres no set age where your skill must decline. If a team picks another corner over jenkins it will be for other reasons, not that he is older than someone else.

We drafted Kerrigan in 2011 and he played for us this year. Jenkins (two months younger) played at North Alabama. That's kind of a big difference wouldn't you say?

If you are arguing that there is no age difference between Kerrigan and Jenkins in terms of development, are you also arguing that you can't predict one's career any better than the others?

Nothing you are saying I disagree with except your conclusion. You're saying that age doesn't matter because YOU can't predict development/decline based on age. I'm saying NFL teams have to be sharp enough to consider it, even if THEY can't tell you exactly what it means.

I think we can at least suggest that if a couple of months of age matter in development, then we can't rule out that there might be an exponential effect to years instead of months. I have no evidence to prove this in football, but it makes logical sense, which is good enough for now.

[Bubba305-ST21-]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

We drafted Kerrigan in 2011 and he played for us this year. Jenkins (two months younger) played at North Alabama. That's kind of a big difference wouldn't you say?

If you are arguing that there is no age difference between Kerrigan and Jenkins in terms of development, are you also arguing that you can't predict one's career any better than the others?

Nothing you are saying I disagree with except your conclusion. You're saying that age doesn't matter because YOU can't predict development/decline based on age. I'm saying NFL teams have to be sharp enough to consider it, even if THEY can't tell you exactly what it means.

I think we can at least suggest that if a couple of months of age matter in development, then we can't rule out that there might be an exponential effect to years instead of months. I have no evidence to prove this in football, but it makes logical sense, which is good enough for now.

yea your right about kerrigan, i read that wrong. Your right, age is definitely something to think about but not this young imo. I just dont think it is something you can predict when a guys ability will start to fall, everyone is different and things like injury and luck come into play.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Bubba305-ST21-

yea your right about kerrigan, i read that wrong. Your right, age is definitely something to think about but not this young imo. I just dont think it is something you can predict when a guys ability starts to fall.

You are right, it's definitely tougher to predict player decline than player development. I do not doubt that NFL teams have advanced systems that help frame their own film evaluations in context that lead to conclusions such as "if Donovan McNabb has anything left, he's not going to be able to show it in our QB-dependant system."

As some guy with the internet who doesn't have anything but stats, game tape, and scout opinion to lean on, I still go way more off gut feel with regards to "is player X done as an NFL starter?" than I would like. For example: is Chris Cooley done as a starting TE in the NFL? Probably. But how much money would I actually put on that opinion? Not much. He's only going to be 30 this year. It's just that he was last an elite TE at age 26.

But, by far, the most reliable figures when predicting decline are a guys age and how long he's been in the league. After that (and to back your point), it's a lot about looking for trends where they may not exist -- hunting statistical ghosts, as it were, and seeing if any vital skills are diminishing.

Hines Ward doesn't catch more than half of his balls more than five yards downfield anymore, so he's probably done as a starting NFL receiver. Sometimes I get it right: I thought Torry Holt was toast after the 2008 season, and he was. Other times, I say that Brett Favre is done after that same season, and get it completely wrong.