Someone good at math...

munny · 11-12-2009, 03:41 PM

Okay... so I am a math moron but a bit of a gambler. I heard a discussion this morning of a place that was considering a 12X12 box for a $1 million bucks. That is, you have to get 12 out of 12 games right. I was wondering, what are the total number of possible combinations of 12 games by 12 games?

Anyone?

saden1 · 11-12-2009, 04:03 PM

Total possible combinations is 12^12 ~= 8.9 trillion.

OK, so I need more clarification to do the math right. I mean, you have to get 12 games right out of how many total number of games you have to select from? What is total number of games you have to choose from?

mlmdub130 · 11-12-2009, 04:15 PM

i now have a headache

ArtMonkDrillz · 11-12-2009, 04:19 PM

The answer is ?3

munny · 11-12-2009, 04:41 PM

I have to select 12 games only and get exactly 12 games right. So, I was thinking something like 2^12 ?

saden1 · 11-12-2009, 04:43 PM

12 games out of how many games? I mean, do you have to select 12 games out of the entire xbox 360 game library? In order to calculate the odds of you getting 12 correct we need to know the total number of games you have to select from. Maybe post a link to the contest itself.

Anywho, the formula for calculating the odds of you picking the right 12 games is:

n!÷(r!*(n−r)!)

Where n is the total number games you have to choose from and r is the number of games you have to get right. So if you have to pick 12 games right out of 100 games your odds are: 1,050,421,051,106,700 to 1. That's a quadrillion to one odds...a runaway star has a better chance of hitting our sun than you getting the right 12 games.

munny · 11-12-2009, 04:52 PM

No, no. (perhaps you are just messing with me)

Each week you look at the NFL games(with the betting line of course). Out of the 16 games available(obviously less during bye weeks) you would select 12 games. To win the million, you would have to get all 12 picks correct.

So, I figured 2^12 = 4096 possible combinations. So, if I was to place 4096 bets at $12.50 per play, I would spend roughly $51,000 but be assured a $1 million payout. Seems like unacceptable risk to the house.

Now, calculating the odds of hitting that without loading up every combination would be a different thing. Each game could fairly be considered to be a 50% chance of winning. Maybe shade that up to 54% or so if you are having a good year and have a good f"feel" for the games. Either way though, the odds of a single play would be pretty tall.

saden1 · 11-12-2009, 05:02 PM

I total misunderstood...I had video games on my mind. So basically you have to win 12 games you've selected every week to get that million? Or do they give out a million every week?

mlmdub130 · 11-12-2009, 05:05 PM

i have a headache again

KLHJ2 · 11-12-2009, 05:07 PM

What if there are 5 ties? Unlikely I know, but it seems as if you would be out of 51K.

munny · 11-12-2009, 05:19 PM

Valid question. My assumption would be that they are all half point games. For example, Denver is favored by 3.5 right now over the Skins. No ties possible.

As a footnote for my fellow degenerates - Washkington is 2-6 against the spread. 0-4 both on the road and as a favorite. So, if you bet the other team, you are making money 75% of the time. Better than the market!

hooskins · 11-12-2009, 05:25 PM

thats .5^12 then right. If the prob of winning each game is 50 percent.

cpayne5 · 11-12-2009, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hooskins

thats .5^12 then right. If the prob of winning each game is 50 percent.

No. 2 possible outcomes for 12 games. 2^12. .5^12 is a tiny number.

Adding a tie to the mix changes the numbers significantly. You could use your judgment to minimize the risks of a tie, though, but the results wouldn't be a sure thing, obviously. ie, you may lose a ton of money.

Hijinx · 11-13-2009, 01:06 AM

The answer is 42, but I don't know what the question is.

JoeRedskin · 11-13-2009, 06:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hijinx

The answer is 42, but I don't know what the question is.

Ask the mice.

11-12-2009, 03:41 PM	#1
munny Camp Scrub Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 94	Someone good at math... Okay... so I am a math moron but a bit of a gambler. I heard a discussion this morning of a place that was considering a 12X12 box for a $1 million bucks. That is, you have to get 12 out of 12 games right. I was wondering, what are the total number of possible combinations of 12 games by 12 games? Anyone?

11-12-2009, 04:03 PM	#2
saden1 MVP Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Seattle Age: 45 Posts: 10,069	Re: Someone good at math... Total possible combinations is 12^12 ~= 8.9 trillion. OK, so I need more clarification to do the math right. I mean, you have to get 12 games right out of how many total number of games you have to select from? What is total number of games you have to choose from? __________________ "The Redskins have always suffered from chronic organizational deformities under Snyder." -Jenkins

11-12-2009, 04:15 PM	#3
mlmdub130 Playmaker Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Woodbridge, VA Age: 41 Posts: 3,238	Re: Someone good at math... i now have a headache __________________ "I don't think anybody should have regrets, especially me, ... You don't regret what you do in your life. If you do it, you do it for a reason." ST21

11-12-2009, 04:19 PM	#4
ArtMonkDrillz Franchise Player Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Ellicott City, MD Age: 42 Posts: 8,029	Re: Someone good at math... The answer is ?3 __________________ "Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man." The Dude

11-12-2009, 04:41 PM	#5
munny Camp Scrub Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 94	Re: Someone good at math... I have to select 12 games only and get exactly 12 games right. So, I was thinking something like 2^12 ?

11-12-2009, 04:43 PM	#6
saden1 MVP Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Seattle Age: 45 Posts: 10,069	Re: Someone good at math... 12 games out of how many games? I mean, do you have to select 12 games out of the entire xbox 360 game library? In order to calculate the odds of you getting 12 correct we need to know the total number of games you have to select from. Maybe post a link to the contest itself. Anywho, the formula for calculating the odds of you picking the right 12 games is: n!÷(r!*(n−r)!) Where n is the total number games you have to choose from and r is the number of games you have to get right. So if you have to pick 12 games right out of 100 games your odds are: 1,050,421,051,106,700 to 1. That's a quadrillion to one odds...a runaway star has a better chance of hitting our sun than you getting the right 12 games. __________________ "The Redskins have always suffered from chronic organizational deformities under Snyder." -Jenkins

11-12-2009, 04:52 PM	#7
munny Camp Scrub Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 94	Re: Someone good at math... No, no. (perhaps you are just messing with me) Each week you look at the NFL games(with the betting line of course). Out of the 16 games available(obviously less during bye weeks) you would select 12 games. To win the million, you would have to get all 12 picks correct. So, I figured 2^12 = 4096 possible combinations. So, if I was to place 4096 bets at $12.50 per play, I would spend roughly $51,000 but be assured a $1 million payout. Seems like unacceptable risk to the house. Now, calculating the odds of hitting that without loading up every combination would be a different thing. Each game could fairly be considered to be a 50% chance of winning. Maybe shade that up to 54% or so if you are having a good year and have a good f"feel" for the games. Either way though, the odds of a single play would be pretty tall.

11-12-2009, 05:02 PM	#8
saden1 MVP Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Seattle Age: 45 Posts: 10,069	Re: Someone good at math... I total misunderstood...I had video games on my mind. So basically you have to win 12 games you've selected every week to get that million? Or do they give out a million every week? __________________ "The Redskins have always suffered from chronic organizational deformities under Snyder." -Jenkins

11-12-2009, 05:05 PM	#9
mlmdub130 Playmaker Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Woodbridge, VA Age: 41 Posts: 3,238	Re: Someone good at math... i have a headache again __________________ "I don't think anybody should have regrets, especially me, ... You don't regret what you do in your life. If you do it, you do it for a reason." ST21

11-12-2009, 05:07 PM	#10
KLHJ2 Inactive Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: DC Metro Area Age: 46 Posts: 5,829	Re: Someone good at math... What if there are 5 ties? Unlikely I know, but it seems as if you would be out of 51K.

11-12-2009, 05:19 PM	#11
munny Camp Scrub Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 94	Re: Someone good at math... Valid question. My assumption would be that they are all half point games. For example, Denver is favored by 3.5 right now over the Skins. No ties possible. As a footnote for my fellow degenerates - Washkington is 2-6 against the spread. 0-4 both on the road and as a favorite. So, if you bet the other team, you are making money 75% of the time. Better than the market!

11-12-2009, 05:25 PM	#12
hooskins Most Interesting Man in the World Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Chantilly, VA Age: 37 Posts: 8,606	Re: Someone good at math... thats .5^12 then right. If the prob of winning each game is 50 percent. __________________ Vacancy

11-13-2009, 01:06 AM	#14
Hijinx The Starter Join Date: Apr 2005 Age: 49 Posts: 1,961	Re: Someone good at math... The answer is 42, but I don't know what the question is.

Someone good at math...

Parking Lot