Why not dream a little --- you never know --- playoffs

heybigstar · 12-06-2004, 01:42 PM

I was looking at the playoff picture .. and while we are still a long shot, if the cowboys
beat the seahawks tonight (which would be bitter sweet), Seattle and St. Louis will be tied in their division and one of them will hold the last wild card spot at 6-6. The three other teams we beat this year (Bears, Lions, and Tampa Bay) are all 5-7 and one game out of that spot. If we just had one of those heartbreaking losses turned around (Packers game?), we would be considered in the mix at 5-7. so at 4-8, if we win out and seattle loses tonight, which is no easy task at the least, i would say we have a legit chance at playoffs (not sure about tie breaking procedure), but Seattle or St. louis goes 2-2 and they are 8-8, we would have to beat them in the tie breaker. and hope all the 5-7 teams, if any of them go 8-8 (Carolina the most likely), we beat them in the tie break as well, 3 of the teams we do beat in the tie breaker (Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Detroit) and if dallas and ny were both 5-7. i do not see either of them going 8-8. ...... just a thought,

i dont expect this, but look at how a win brings optimism everywhere!!

illdefined · 12-06-2004, 01:57 PM

er, do we gotta root for the cowgirls tonight?? not sure i can do that..

RedskinRat · 12-06-2004, 02:11 PM

I can wait until next season, I'm certainly not about to cheer on the Cow-Whores.

Gmanc711 · 12-06-2004, 02:33 PM

If we beat the Eagles, then I'll start to dream. Until we beat them, I still think were on the outside looking and just trying to finish it up strong!

JoeRedskin · 12-06-2004, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gmanc711

If we beat the Eagles, then I'll start to dream. Until we beat them, I still think were on the outside looking and just trying to finish it up strong!

My thoughts exactly. And, after what they did to GBay, Phil is going to be high as a kite for a sunday night game. Not saying we can't win it, but it will be a tough tough game.

IF we win it, THEN the "P" word can be discussed ad nauseum.

joecrisp · 12-06-2004, 02:44 PM

It's an intriguing thought, and I certainly considered the possibilities as I watched the Skins mop up the Gimps, but I'm of the "one game at a time" mindset, and the Skins have a very long shot at beating the Eagles, even if they're playing at home, the defense is smothering McNabb and Owens, and the offense plays the way it did Sunday.

Frankly, I'll be somewhat comforted after all that's transpired this season if the Skins continue to improve and finish up at 6-10. Given how poorly the remaining teams on the schedule, other than the Eagles, are playing now, I don't think 7-9 is out of the question, but I think that's the absolute best they can do at this point, and that still leaves them at home during the playoffs-- albeit with a lot more optimism about next season than they could have imagined earlier this season.

Still, 7-9 is a heck of a lot better than the 3-13 record that was quickly creeping into the realm of possibility.

Gmanc711 · 12-06-2004, 02:47 PM

I agree joe. After the Pittsburgh/Eagles games, I was sorta happy at how well we plaeyd and thought that 7-9 would be a very resectable, possible finish that would carry us over into next season. I'm still on that thinking level unless we beat the Eagles. I think we can beat (well we BETTER) beat SF, Dallas is alwasy tough I dont care how bad they are, but I think we should win that too. Minnestoa in Janurary at FedEx..... Defintley doable.

MTK · 12-06-2004, 02:54 PM

Let's not fool ourselves, the playoffs are a long shot.

I'll be happy with the team looking strong down the stretch, wins aren't the only thing that matter right now.

JWsleep · 12-06-2004, 03:02 PM

It does show how weak the NFC is this year, though given our schedule (read: PHILLY), we are a very long shot. And I'm not sure if the math actually works out.

Let's just keep playing better, and close out strong.

FRPLG · 12-06-2004, 03:03 PM

So okay...I did some schedulizing and making the playoffs is not impossible. It is probably pretty close though. We have to have everything fall the right way.
Below is what a rather optimistic prediction would be for the NFC final standings
Philadelphia 14-2
Washington 8-8
N.Y. Giants 6-10
Dallas 6-10

Green Bay 11-5
Minnesota 8-8
Chicago 7-9
Detroit 5-11

Atlanta 11-5
Carolina 9-7
Tampa Bay 7-9
New Orleans 4-12

Seattle 9-7
St. Louis 7-9
Arizona 5-11
San Francisco 1-15

I essentially went through week by week for the final 4 weeks and predicted who would win. I attempted to be unbiased when predicting and we actually make the playoffs without any crazy things happening(accept that we win out which is obviously not likely but must happen for any chance at the playoffs.)

A couple things struke me about the above scenario and what has to happen.

a) there are a lot of divisional games throughout the NFC that we need to go as they should. Upsets are bad for us. Upsets are deadly for us.
b) we need green bay to win out and NO, Det and SF to lose out. For NO and SF that could definitly happen but Det is better than that. The losing out I predicted was on a week by week basis and they play some decent teams. Possible but not probable
c) gosh doesn't the west just suck?
d)SL,TB and Chi need to only win one game the rest of the year again I went ona week by week basis. This is possible but again not probable.
e) in the above scenario they actually make the playoffs straight up by virtue of being 8-8 and having beat Minn. Carolina also makes the Playoffs after a horrific start.
d) we absolutly have to win out. no other way is possible.

So basically it is possible but not probable.

44Dive · 12-06-2004, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by heybigstar

I was looking at the playoff picture .. and while we are still a long shot, if the cowboys
beat the seahawks tonight (which would be bitter sweet), Seattle and St. Louis will be tied in their division and one of them will hold the last wild card spot at 6-6. The three other teams we beat this year (Bears, Lions, and Tampa Bay) are all 5-7 and one game out of that spot. If we just had one of those heartbreaking losses turned around (Packers game?), we would be considered in the mix at 5-7. so at 4-8, if we win out and seattle loses tonight, which is no easy task at the least, i would say we have a legit chance at playoffs (not sure about tie breaking procedure), but Seattle or St. louis goes 2-2 and they are 8-8, we would have to beat them in the tie breaker. and hope all the 5-7 teams, if any of them go 8-8 (Carolina the most likely), we beat them in the tie break as well, 3 of the teams we do beat in the tie breaker (Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Detroit) and if dallas and ny were both 5-7. i do not see either of them going 8-8. ...... just a thought,

i dont expect this, but look at how a win brings optimism everywhere!!

Man, nothing would be sweeter than to squeeze in the playoffs...but I think next year is OURS! We have the best defense in the NFL bar none...yes even better than the Steelers...remember Barrow and Arington are out...ad them and you are talikng 86 Bears type D.

If Clinton Portis adjusts to the hog style of blocking...which needs patience on his part...no one will stop us running the ball. All Patrick Ramsey has to do is not make mistakes...he doesn't need big numbers...Theisman didn't either...just a threat os a deep ball to keep safeties honest.

I have been a Skins fan since 1978. I have seen the glory and felt the agony of many fruitless seasons. Thank God for Gibbs, Bugel, Williams (MVP) and Snyder for his reverence of Gibbs. We are definetly on our way to dominance again!

44Dive

JWsleep · 12-06-2004, 03:21 PM

Nice Post, FRPLG

heybigstar · 12-06-2004, 03:33 PM

We have the best defense? i hope so, but you cant forget about Baltimore... a lot of talent htere...
but yeah, the Skins D is
great, i love our defense.

JoeRedskin · 12-06-2004, 04:25 PM

Here's my "I have way to much time on my hands", the Skins could make the playoffs post:

A few explanations/assumptions first:
Green Bay and Minnesota are both 7-5; One of them will win the Central, the other will get the first Wild Card

For the Skins to make the playoffs, they must win out. One loss (Philly comes to mind) and they are out. IF they do win out, they will have an 8-8 record with an 8-4 conference record which is the first tie breaker when more than two teams have the same record.

Of the current contenders - The bears, bucs and lions have at least 5 conference losses and cannot finish with a conference better than ours so a tied record with them wins for us.

I am counting N. Orleans, NY Giants and Dallas out as I expect them to have at least 9 losses by the end of the season (Dallas (5-7) plays us and Philly, and the Giants and N. Orleans just suck).

As for the rest:

Seattle (6-5) (5-3): Final Record 8-8 (8-4) Wins West
12.06 Dallas W 7-5 (6-3)
12.12 At Minnesota L 7-6 (6-4)
12.19 At NY Jets L 7-7
12.26 Arizon W 8-7 (7-4)
01.02 Atlanta L 8-8 (8-4)

St. Louis (6-6) (6-3): Final Record 7-9 (7-5)
12.12 At Carolina L 6-7 (6-4)
12.19 At Arizon W 7-7 (7-4)
12.27 Phil L 8-7 (7-5)
01.02 NY Jets L 8-8

Carolina (5-7) (4-4): Final Record 8-8 (6-6)
12.12 St. Louis W 6-7 (5-4)
12.18 At Atlanta L 6-8 (5-5)
12.26 At T. Bay L 6-9 (5-6)
01.02 N. Orleans W 8-8 (6-6)

Chicago (5-7) Final Record 6-10
12.12 At Jaguars L 5-8
12.19 Houston W 6-8
12.26 At Detroit L 6-9
01.02 Green Bay L 6-10

Detroit (5-7) Final Record 7-9
12.12 At G. Bay L 5-8
12.19 Minn. W 6-8
12.26 Chicago W 7-8
01.02 Tennessee L 7-9

T. Bay (5-7) Final Record 8-8
12.12 At San Diego L 5-8
12.19 N. Orleans W 6-8
12.26 Carolina W 7-8
01.02 At Arizona W 8-8

Fire away.

JoeRedskin · 12-06-2004, 04:33 PM

BTW the records in the Parentheses are the conference records.

Under this Scenario,

Final Records

Washington 8-8 (8-4)
Carolina 8-8
T. Bay 8-8
St. Louis 7-9
Detroit 7-9
Chicago 6-10

Philly, Seattle, Green Bay/Minn, and Atl. win divisions
Green Bay/Minn, Washington in as WC's.

12-06-2004, 01:42 PM	#1
heybigstar Special Teams Join Date: Oct 2004 Age: 41 Posts: 375	Why not dream a little --- you never know --- playoffs I was looking at the playoff picture .. and while we are still a long shot, if the cowboys beat the seahawks tonight (which would be bitter sweet), Seattle and St. Louis will be tied in their division and one of them will hold the last wild card spot at 6-6. The three other teams we beat this year (Bears, Lions, and Tampa Bay) are all 5-7 and one game out of that spot. If we just had one of those heartbreaking losses turned around (Packers game?), we would be considered in the mix at 5-7. so at 4-8, if we win out and seattle loses tonight, which is no easy task at the least, i would say we have a legit chance at playoffs (not sure about tie breaking procedure), but Seattle or St. louis goes 2-2 and they are 8-8, we would have to beat them in the tie breaker. and hope all the 5-7 teams, if any of them go 8-8 (Carolina the most likely), we beat them in the tie break as well, 3 of the teams we do beat in the tie breaker (Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Detroit) and if dallas and ny were both 5-7. i do not see either of them going 8-8. ...... just a thought, i dont expect this, but look at how a win brings optimism everywhere!! __________________ Hail to the Redskins.

12-06-2004, 02:33 PM	#4
Gmanc711 Thank You, Sean. Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Gaithersburg, MD Age: 39 Posts: 7,506	If we beat the Eagles, then I'll start to dream. Until we beat them, I still think were on the outside looking and just trying to finish it up strong! __________________ #21

12-06-2004, 02:47 PM	#7
Gmanc711 Thank You, Sean. Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Gaithersburg, MD Age: 39 Posts: 7,506	I agree joe. After the Pittsburgh/Eagles games, I was sorta happy at how well we plaeyd and thought that 7-9 would be a very resectable, possible finish that would carry us over into next season. I'm still on that thinking level unless we beat the Eagles. I think we can beat (well we BETTER) beat SF, Dallas is alwasy tough I dont care how bad they are, but I think we should win that too. Minnestoa in Janurary at FedEx..... Defintley doable. __________________ #21

12-06-2004, 03:02 PM	#9
JWsleep Propane and propane accessories Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Houston, TX Age: 55 Posts: 4,719	It does show how weak the NFC is this year, though given our schedule (read: PHILLY), we are a very long shot. And I'm not sure if the math actually works out. Let's just keep playing better, and close out strong. __________________ Hail from Houston!

12-06-2004, 03:21 PM	#12
JWsleep Propane and propane accessories Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Houston, TX Age: 55 Posts: 4,719	Nice Post, FRPLG __________________ Hail from Houston!

12-06-2004, 01:57 PM	#2
illdefined Playmaker Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: nyc Age: 48 Posts: 2,631	er, do we gotta root for the cowgirls tonight?? not sure i can do that..

12-06-2004, 02:11 PM	#3
RedskinRat Franchise Player Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: I'm in LA, trick! Posts: 8,700	I can wait until next season, I'm certainly not about to cheer on the Cow-Whores.

12-06-2004, 02:44 PM	#6
joecrisp The Starter Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Charlottesville, VA Age: 48 Posts: 1,501	It's an intriguing thought, and I certainly considered the possibilities as I watched the Skins mop up the Gimps, but I'm of the "one game at a time" mindset, and the Skins have a very long shot at beating the Eagles, even if they're playing at home, the defense is smothering McNabb and Owens, and the offense plays the way it did Sunday. Frankly, I'll be somewhat comforted after all that's transpired this season if the Skins continue to improve and finish up at 6-10. Given how poorly the remaining teams on the schedule, other than the Eagles, are playing now, I don't think 7-9 is out of the question, but I think that's the absolute best they can do at this point, and that still leaves them at home during the playoffs-- albeit with a lot more optimism about next season than they could have imagined earlier this season. Still, 7-9 is a heck of a lot better than the 3-13 record that was quickly creeping into the realm of possibility.

12-06-2004, 02:54 PM	#8
MTK \m/ Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: NY Age: 52 Posts: 99,569	Let's not fool ourselves, the playoffs are a long shot. I'll be happy with the team looking strong down the stretch, wins aren't the only thing that matter right now.

12-06-2004, 03:03 PM	#10
FRPLG MVP Join Date: May 2004 Age: 46 Posts: 10,164	So okay...I did some schedulizing and making the playoffs is not impossible. It is probably pretty close though. We have to have everything fall the right way. Below is what a rather optimistic prediction would be for the NFC final standings Philadelphia 14-2 Washington 8-8 N.Y. Giants 6-10 Dallas 6-10 Green Bay 11-5 Minnesota 8-8 Chicago 7-9 Detroit 5-11 Atlanta 11-5 Carolina 9-7 Tampa Bay 7-9 New Orleans 4-12 Seattle 9-7 St. Louis 7-9 Arizona 5-11 San Francisco 1-15 I essentially went through week by week for the final 4 weeks and predicted who would win. I attempted to be unbiased when predicting and we actually make the playoffs without any crazy things happening(accept that we win out which is obviously not likely but must happen for any chance at the playoffs.) A couple things struke me about the above scenario and what has to happen. a) there are a lot of divisional games throughout the NFC that we need to go as they should. Upsets are bad for us. Upsets are deadly for us. b) we need green bay to win out and NO, Det and SF to lose out. For NO and SF that could definitly happen but Det is better than that. The losing out I predicted was on a week by week basis and they play some decent teams. Possible but not probable c) gosh doesn't the west just suck? d)SL,TB and Chi need to only win one game the rest of the year again I went ona week by week basis. This is possible but again not probable. e) in the above scenario they actually make the playoffs straight up by virtue of being 8-8 and having beat Minn. Carolina also makes the Playoffs after a horrific start. d) we absolutly have to win out. no other way is possible. So basically it is possible but not probable.

12-06-2004, 03:33 PM	#13
heybigstar Special Teams Join Date: Oct 2004 Age: 41 Posts: 375	We have the best defense? i hope so, but you cant forget about Baltimore... a lot of talent htere... but yeah, the Skins D is great, i love our defense. __________________ Hail to the Redskins.

12-06-2004, 04:25 PM	#14
JoeRedskin Contains football related knowledge Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Second Star On The Right Age: 62 Posts: 10,401	Here's my "I have way to much time on my hands", the Skins could make the playoffs post: A few explanations/assumptions first: Green Bay and Minnesota are both 7-5; One of them will win the Central, the other will get the first Wild Card For the Skins to make the playoffs, they must win out. One loss (Philly comes to mind) and they are out. IF they do win out, they will have an 8-8 record with an 8-4 conference record which is the first tie breaker when more than two teams have the same record. Of the current contenders - The bears, bucs and lions have at least 5 conference losses and cannot finish with a conference better than ours so a tied record with them wins for us. I am counting N. Orleans, NY Giants and Dallas out as I expect them to have at least 9 losses by the end of the season (Dallas (5-7) plays us and Philly, and the Giants and N. Orleans just suck). As for the rest: Seattle (6-5) (5-3): Final Record 8-8 (8-4) Wins West 12.06 Dallas W 7-5 (6-3) 12.12 At Minnesota L 7-6 (6-4) 12.19 At NY Jets L 7-7 12.26 Arizon W 8-7 (7-4) 01.02 Atlanta L 8-8 (8-4) St. Louis (6-6) (6-3): Final Record 7-9 (7-5) 12.12 At Carolina L 6-7 (6-4) 12.19 At Arizon W 7-7 (7-4) 12.27 Phil L 8-7 (7-5) 01.02 NY Jets L 8-8 Carolina (5-7) (4-4): Final Record 8-8 (6-6) 12.12 St. Louis W 6-7 (5-4) 12.18 At Atlanta L 6-8 (5-5) 12.26 At T. Bay L 6-9 (5-6) 01.02 N. Orleans W 8-8 (6-6) Chicago (5-7) Final Record 6-10 12.12 At Jaguars L 5-8 12.19 Houston W 6-8 12.26 At Detroit L 6-9 01.02 Green Bay L 6-10 Detroit (5-7) Final Record 7-9 12.12 At G. Bay L 5-8 12.19 Minn. W 6-8 12.26 Chicago W 7-8 01.02 Tennessee L 7-9 T. Bay (5-7) Final Record 8-8 12.12 At San Diego L 5-8 12.19 N. Orleans W 6-8 12.26 Carolina W 7-8 01.02 At Arizona W 8-8 Fire away.

12-06-2004, 04:33 PM	#15
JoeRedskin Contains football related knowledge Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Second Star On The Right Age: 62 Posts: 10,401	BTW the records in the Parentheses are the conference records. Under this Scenario, Final Records Washington 8-8 (8-4) Carolina 8-8 T. Bay 8-8 St. Louis 7-9 Detroit 7-9 Chicago 6-10 Philly, Seattle, Green Bay/Minn, and Atl. win divisions Green Bay/Minn, Washington in as WC's.

Why not dream a little --- you never know --- playoffs

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